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September 25, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 25.09.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25056.90 FII -2425.75 cr DII 1211.68 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines, with bears dominating and taking Nifty down to 25027 before closing near our support at 25051, i.e. 25056.90.
An average bearish candle on the daily chart suggests continuation of the short-term bearish trend. A decisive breakdown below 25018 may drag it further to 24979–24961/940, with extended downside possible up to 24901 if supply pressure increases.
On the upside, 25097–25135 may act as immediate resistance. A sustained move above these levels could push Nifty towards 25173–25213.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 55121.50 Pcr: 0.80 Max CE OI: 56000 Max PE OI: 54000
On 24th September 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55121.50 (-388.25, -0.70%). The index moved 470.65 points during the session, making a high of 55511.10 and a low of 55040.45.
Technical View:
Key support and resistance levels are placed at 55000 and 56200 respectively.
Intraday support and resistance stand at 54990 and 55250.
Intraday Technical Strategy:
Go long above 55250 with stop loss 55207 and target 55380.
Go short below 54992 with stop loss 55035 and target 54862.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bank Nifty is at 51. Readings below 30 are oversold, while above 70 are overbought.
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 4 out of 8 SMA’s (20, 30,150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 4 out of 8 SMA’s. (5, 10, 50,100 Day)
No candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
Macros.
1. Dollar index @ 97.50
2. S&P 500 Vix @ 17.19
3. Brent crude @ 68.97
4.10 years bond yield @ 4.142
Note:
Geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East as well as in the Ukraine war. The US may impose more sanctions on Russia, which could push crude oil prices up to 71.5–72$. Meanwhile, Israel’s bombardment of Doha last week has further heated the Middle East situation.
Russia stated on Wednesday that its economy remains stable and its army is advancing in Ukraine, dismissing US President Donald Trump’s remarks urging Kyiv to exploit Russian weakness and reclaim occupied territory. In a sharp shift, Trump said on Tuesday he believed Ukraine could retake all the land currently under Russian control, about a fifth of the country.
Crude has surged by 3$ in the past two days on expectations of fresh sanctions against Russia and worsening Gulf tensions. Bullion, which has been hitting all-time highs daily, paused for a breather today.
We need to closely monitor geopolitical tensions and keep positions light.
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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*News Headlines from Business News Agencies:*
*Business Standard*
CIL seeks inclusion of imported coal in proposed national exchange
Coromandel signs pact with Veolia to expand Vizag desalination capacity
Oolka raises $7 million seed funding led by Lightspeed India, Z47
ONE Group launches The Clermont in Mohali, targets ₹400 cr revenue
Capri Global Capital to raise ₹65,000 crore via bonds, loans in FY26
Cabinet clears 4-lane highway, rail line projects in poll-bound Bihar
Flour millers push for wheat buffer stock hike, GST relief, export ease
Govt notifies additional condition for export of 2nd generation ethanol
India's solar module manufacturing capacity to outpace demand in 3 years
EXIM Bank boosts credit to exporters hit by tariffs, eyes Africa expansion
L&T, BEL join hands to support India's fifth-gen fighter aircraft programme
*Economic Times*
Akasa Air partners with OpenAirlines to optimise fuel efficiency with eco-flying platform
Essar Green Mobility eyes USD 1 bn turnover in three years
Bajaj Electricals to acquire Morphy Richards brand rights in South Asia for Rs 146 crore
Galaxy Health Insurance targets Rs 450-crore premium by FY'27, breakeven in 4 years
Piccadily Agro gets court injunction against Radico Khaitan over vodka trademark "KASHMYR"
IL&FS resolution at end of the tunnel for Chenani-Nashri
Montra Electric to unveil eHCV commercial manufacturing plant in Manesar
HCA Healthcare to invest $75 mln to set up Global Capability Center (GCC) in Hyderabad
Xbattery raises $2.3 million to fuel battery innovation
Navi Mumbai International Airport takes 405 flats from Wadhwa Group
DGTR recommends anti-dumping duty on certain Chinese cranes for 5 yrs
*Mint*
Cabinet approves ₹69,725 crore package for shipbuilding and maritime sector
PhonePe files papers for nearly ₹12,000-crore IPO via confidential route
Setback to Musk's X Corp, plea dismissed on Govt power to issue blocking order
Govt needs to support farmers as crop prices determined by global factors: Gadkari
Optus fined USD 66 million for appalling conduct in sales to vulnerable customers in Australia
CVS’s Omnicare Files Bankruptcy After $949 Million Judgment
Rating agency ICRA upgrades ACME Solar’s 250 MW renewable energy project
Reliance Consumer Products to invest ₹1156 cr in TN to set up manufacturing unit
Atlanta Electricals IPO receives over 70 times bids on third day
Dubais top Indian jewellery importer cuts volumes 30pc as gold prices soar
Vinod Kumar Agarwal appoints as CFO of Jupiter Wagons
*MNCL Research: IFGL Refractories: Hires a Project lead for the Gujarat Greenfield JV*
*_Mcap: Rs19.2bn; CMP: Rs266; TP: Rs300; Rating: BUY_*
*What happened:* Mr. Subbaraman Swaminathan has joined IFGL as VP - Projects on 23rd September 2025.
*Our view:*
1. Mr. Swaminathan is hired to lead and commission the Gujarat Marvel JV plant which will manufacture various magnesite and magnesia chrome bricks used in industries like cement, glass and steel. The project is expected to incur a capex of Rs3bn and will be commissioned in Feb'28.
2. Mr. Swaminathan, an Associate Member of Indian Institute of Ceramics, Calcuta and holds Diploma in Ceramic Technology, has experience of more than 3 decades in Production, Sales, Quality Control, application of Refractories in Steel & Cement plants.
3. His last designation was VP - Dalmia Magnesite Corp. (now called Dalmia Refractories) in Salem which manufactures refractory products, particularly dead burned magnesite. He has also worked at Tata Krosaki before his tenure at Dalmia Refractories.
4. We believe IFGL has poached a professional who has the knowhow for the production and sales of the intended new product, which is expected to help them get a head-start for the new business and breakthrough at non-ferrous customers/ plants.
*With several positives expected for IFGL as highlighted in our last note (Link: https://bit.ly/ifglroad2025 ), we believe that IFGL is working in the right direction to hire the right people, increase domestic exposure, add new client sites & products and improve performance of overseas subs. Remain positive on IFGL.*
Regards,
Sahil Sanghvi @ Monarch Networth Capital Ltd.
Citi on RBL Bank
Target Price ₹300
Recommendation Buy
NIMs bottomed out in Q1; improvement anticipated Q2 onwards
Advances growth is accelerating led by secured retail and commercial banking
MFI disbursements now outpace repayments, eliminating further portfolio run-down concerns
Stress in JLG subsides; credit card taking longer to normalize
Jefferies Radico Khaitan
Target Price ₹3590
Recommendation Buy
Growth momentum remains strong for Radico after a stellar Q1
Limited salience in Maharashtra (tax hike) and several growth levers firing on all cylinders
Should also help improve profitability, with inflation manageable across key inputs
Balance sheet should turn net cash by FY27
GS on Tata Consumer
Target Price ₹1290
Earlier Target ₹1270
Recommendation Buy
Improved visibility of margin recovery driven by lower tea prices
Relatively limited GST transition disruptions
Core business growth likely to improve, growth segments expected to bounce back after a weak June quarter
Non-branded margins aided by a bounce back in coffee prices
CLSA on Bharti Airtel
Target Price ₹2035
Recommendation Outperform
Nxtra to gain from data centre policy
Nxtra plans to double capacity to 400MW
Nxtra is a part of Bharti's enterprise business, which is 15% of India operations as mobile business dominates
Although Nxtra is mere c10% of Airtel Business, it is growing rapidly
Nomura on
Glenmark Pharma
Target Price ₹1500
Recommendation Neutral
Another oncology in-licensing deal
In-licensing is part of Glenmark's strategy to build branded patented drug portfolio
Trastuzumab Rezetecan will be the largest contributor to the company's target to get to $350-400 mn in innovation drug revenues in next 5-7 years
Citi on SBI
Target Price ₹1050
Recommendation Add
Continue to build in loan growth of 13-14% YoY
See NIMs at 2.8-2.9% and stable credit cost of 40-45 bps
Expect it to deliver ROA of 1% and ROE of 14-15% over FY26-27
SBI is preferred pick within the PSU banks coverage
Avendus Spark on Niva Bupa
Target Price ₹90
Recommendation Add
Reported GDPI growth to be under pressure due to 1/N; however, it should remain strong on N basis
Higher exposure to benefit-based health or diversified book makes Niva Bupa GDPI growth less volatile
Calibrated porting should aid better growth
Investec on ICICI Bank
Target Price ₹ 1745
Recommendation Buy
Management anticipates a gradual pick up in loan growth
NIM compression is expected to be milder than anticipated
Funding costs have responded well to repo rate cuts
Bank remains selective in the aggressively priced wholesale lending segment
Incred on Cement
Channel check showed cement industry passing on GST cut benefit
Prices cut by Rs 10-30/bag; new rates to be implemented nationwide in a week
Experts feel that it should contribute positively in the long run by improving affordability and boosting the demand sentiment post festive season
Price hike capped until mid-Oct 2025 due to the strong festive season and global pet-coke price rise limiting the industry's ability to pass on cost pressure
Citi on India Economics
October MPC: A Dovish Tilt Expected with a Marginal Bias for an Outright Cut
Space for a more dovish tilt in the October MPC has opened up
See either an "insurance" rate cut to protect against the downside growth risks
Or a "dovish pause" with an outright assurance to act soon if required
Have a marginal bias that the RBI would opt for the "insurance" rate cut view
NUVAMA ON SUN PHARMA
Nuvama maintains Hold on Sun Pharma with a target price of ₹1,830
For domestic formulations growth, driven by field force expansion, Nuvama (TP: ₹1,830) highlights steady progress; GLP-1 launch planned next year
On the U.S. front, Leqselvi's launch shows encouraging early signs, with stabilization expected in a couple of years (TP: ₹1,830 maintained)
Ilumya outlook is positive despite oral IL-23 competition Spolan ahead, supporting the Hold stance with a TP of ₹1,830
Revenue/PAT expected to grow at 9%/8% CAGR over FY25-27E, with ~100 bps margin improvement and higher tax rates; valuation remains Hold with a TP of ₹1,830
Jefferies India Strategy
India is now a consensus Underweight for foreign investors
Given the sharp underperformance YTD, the key focus is identifying bottom-up ideas to lower the Underweight
Corporate India's optimism on GST cuts driving consumption was visible, though partially priced-in
Govt. seems intent on utilizing tariff-driven concerns as a reform driver
Believe a near-term market bounce is likely on cards, though the potential equity supply tempers 12-month outlook
Kotak Securities on Cyient
Target Price ₹1180
Recommendation Reduce
Organization is being aligned with a revamped strategy under the new CEO
Client behavior remains unchanged, despite reduced macro uncertainty
Transportation segment will continue momentum, led by aerospace
Communications vertical will fare better than the past year
HLE GLASCOAT: COMPLETES AMALGAMATION OF KINAM ENTERPRISE PVT LTD
NCLT Ahmedabad approved the amalgamation effective from August 7, 2023.
Authorised share capital increased to ₹27.6 crore.
Consolidation expected to improve synergies and operational efficiency.
Tata Motors : Jaguar Land Rover failed to finalise a cyber insurance deal brokered by insurance provider Lockton before the attack - Reuters
ASHOK LEYLAND: Hinduja's Ashok Leyland kicks off China tie-up with battery-making goal - ET
BSE : NSE CEO Says Have been discussing IPO issue with SEBI, had filed our application for settlement in June 2025 - CNBCTV18
Expect IPO to happen 8-9 months after the RHP
Heard from public statements that SEBI will come out with consultation papers on expiry
There may be an initial reduction in volume on expiry changes, but over a period things will normalise
TATA MOTORS, SAMVARDHANA MOTHERSON; UK car output slumped 10.2% in Aug to just 37K units, snapping a 2-month growth streak… EU export demand fell sharply, offsetting domestic sales rise
Cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover threatens Sep production. Bright spot: EV output surged 41%, nearly half of total
Tata Electronics is in talks with ASML and other companies for Dholera Fab and Assam OSAT Vendor ecosystem ; REPORTS
HIND COPPER : GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS LATEST DISRUPTION MEANS THAT THE RISKS TO ITS DECEMBER 2025 LME COPPER PRICE FORECAST OF $9,700/T ARE WEIGHTED TO THE UPSIDE AND SHOULD SETTLE IN A $10,200-10,500/T RANGE.
SHIPPING STOCKS ; Shipping Ministry Sec Says Govt will incentivise cost of ship acquisition & will provide subsidy of 15-25%
Shipbuilding development scheme aimed at two or three mega shipbuilding clusters
CABLE STOCKS ; Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped by over 3% to their highest in more than 15 months on Wednesday after Freeport-McMoran Inc declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
HIND COPPER: Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped by over 3% to their highest in more than 15 months on Wednesday after Freeport-McMoran Inc declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia
CLSA on HAL
O-P, TP Rs 5436
Reached an important milestone with the first flight of the 13th LCA Mk 1A aircraft this week vs the 12 it aimed to deliver in FY26, putting to rest any concerns regarding its role in delay
GE has promised to deliver 12 engines for 2025 and 20 in 2026, which is key for final delivery of aircraft
Start of delivery of the first two fully armed Mk 1As is key to HAL winning its repeat order worth Rs670bn (US$7.8bn), which should add 35% to its US$22bn backlog.
Its decadal pipeline remains healthy at US$54bn
Nomura on Glenmark Pharma
Neutral, TP Rs 1500
Announced an in-licensing agreement with Hengrui Pharma for Trastuzumab Rezetecan, an oncology ADC (antibody drug conjugate) drug
Under the agreement, Glenmark will obtain exclusive rights to develop & commercialise product largely in India & select emerging markets
As part of agreement, Glenmark shall make an upfront payment of $18mn
Hengrui is also eligible for regulatory & commercial milestone payout of up to $1.1bn
Think Trastuzumab Rezetecan will be largest contributor to co’s target to get to $350-400m in innovation drug revenues in next 5-7 years.
MS on Sun Pharma
OW, TP Rs 1948
In India, co should outpace IPM, led by chronic-heavy portfolio, volume growth, new launches, and stronger prescriber engagement.
Sun is preparing for a Day-1 entry in India's Semaglutide (GLP-1 injectable) market.
Leqselvi shows strong early uptake, Ilumya anchors growth with PsA filing by 2025, and Unloxcyt’s US launch in H2F26 marks the next scale-up
Co remains active in scouting Phase II/ III assets for acquisition to further scale the Specialty portfolio.
Sun’s Specialty portfolio has minimal MFN exposure, as rules target Medicaid where Sun has minimum exposure.
CITI on RBL BK
Buy, TP Rs 300
Management meet takeaways
1] NIMs bottomed out in 1Q; improvement anticipated 2Q onwards
2] Advances growth is accelerating led by secured retail & commercial banking, while MFI disbursements now outpace repayments, eliminating further portfolio run-down concerns
3] Stress in JLG subsides; credit card taking longer to normalize
4] Core fee income – building traction from 1Q base
5] Cost control initiatives currently underway; impact to become discernible 3Q onwards
Close 90D+ catalyst watch, retaining a positive view on steady RoA improvement over next 4-6 quarters
GS on Tata Cons
Buy, TP Rs 1290
Improved visibility of margin recovery driven by lower tea prices
Relatively limited GST transition disruptions
Core business growth likely to improve, growth segments expected to bounce back after a weak June quarter
Non-branded margins aided by a bounce back in coffee prices
Polycab block done - double the size of what was reported, 1700 crs instead of 970 crores
Mahesh Babu Joins Olectra Greentech - NSE Filing
Mahesh was earlier CEO at Switch Mobility (Ashok Leyland) and Also with Mahindra Electric

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