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April 22, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 22.04.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24125.55 FII: 1970.17 cr DII: 246.59 cr
As discussed yesterday, the market moved as expected, with a rally up to 24190 after successfully crossing 23955.
A moderate bullish candlestick on the daily chart indicates continued bullish momentum. If the index crosses 24226–260 and sustains, it may rally further to 24327–24427. Stronger demand could even push it towards 24527.
However, daily RSI is nearing the overbought zone and showing bearish divergence, which calls for caution. The index may face selling pressure and slip to 24023–23925. A break and close below these levels could drag it down to 23820–23724.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 55304.50 PCR: 1.17 Max CE OI: 56000 Max PE OI: 55000
On 21st April 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55304.50, up by 1.87% from the previous day. The total movement was 786.70 points, with an intraday high of 55461.65 and a low of 54674.95.
The previous day’s high of 55461.65 and low of 54674.95 can be considered as resistance and support, respectively, for today’s trading.
Technical View on Daily Chart:
Key technical levels for Bank Nifty on the daily chart are 55690 as resistance and 54900 as support. If the index crosses 55690 and sustains, it may move towards 56278. On the downside, if it breaks 54900, it may slip to 53960.
The RSI for Bank Nifty is at 75.5, indicating an overbought zone, suggesting possible profit booking. (Below 30 is considered oversold, above 70 overbought.)
Bank Nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank Nifty is trading above all 8 SMAs (5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200-day).
It is trading below none of the SMAs.
No bullish candlestick pattern was identified in Bank Nifty.
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Vodafone Idea gets credit rating boost, clearing path for Rs 25,000 crore debt raise
Source: The Economic Times
https://search.app/ufxoW
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@beatthestreet10
UBS on FMCG
Ready for a rebound; Goldilocks in the making
Earnings look set to recover in FY26 – see 13% growth – after a weak FY25
Potential income stimulus – lower taxes and the upcoming Eighth Pay Commission over the next three years
This could spur a demand revival in many categories and an extended earnings growth phase
Valuations have corrected significantly, as much as 35% since October
Think the sector offers defensiveness in a market that may continue to have low risk tolerance
Prefer DMART and Trent as income stimulus plays, given their resilient value retail model
As turnaround stories, favour HUL and Godrej Consumer, five-year laggards with portfolio issues on the mend
View Colgate and Britannia as at an inflection point with earnings growth revival likely by next year
Aee appealing value in ITC after a correction on tax fears
Least prefer Asian Paints as a disruption cycle brings uncertainty and Dabur for portfolio issues
Jubilant has priced in a SSSG rebound
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CLSA on RBI LCR Guidelines
Another boost to liquidity
New LCR guidelines positive for liquidity
RBI has increased run-off rates for deposits
Increase is only 2.5 ppts Vs 5 ppts suggested in the draft circular.
RBI expects the new guidelines to result in a 6 ppt improvement in the system-wide LCR
Initial estimates - increases system-wide
liquidity available for redeployment by Rs 2.5 lakh crore
PAT impact of this move is modest, it would be seen as sentimentally positive
@beatthestreet10
MS on RBI LCR Guidelines
View RBI LCR guidelines as a material positive unlike the draft
This should help improve system LCR by 6 percentage points (ppts)
Banks that have higher shares of trust deposits will likely be key beneficiaries
6 ppts would help the banking system accelerate loan growth by 1-2% and/or improve margins by 2-4 bps on implementation in the next year
Although the guidelines are effective April 1, 2026, we expect some benefit to percolate in FY26 earnings as well
@beatthestreet10
Macquarie on RBI LCR Guidelines
Liquidity bonanza continues
Improving liquidity to support 140-160 bps increase in credit growth
Back of the envelope calculations indicate a Rs 2.5-Rs 3 lakh crore increase in liquidity deployable
Move is welcome in the current environment where loan growth is relatively weak
@beatthestreet10
Kotak on Dr Agarwal
Initiate Add with TP of Rs 425
Setting its sights on profitable growth
Expect RoIC to improve to ~12% in FY28E
Expect robust 23%/27% EBITDA/EPS CAGRs over FY24-28E
Competition: Dr Agarwal has an early-mover advantage over organized peers
M&A strategy: Acquisitions have been a key growth enabler for Dr Agarwal
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Finance Minister says India's journey to become 'Viksit Bharat' by 2047 not merely an aspiration, but a national mission - ET NOW
Significant thrust on infrastructure development building a strong foundation for manufacturing-led growth
Over four-fold increase in capital expenditure from 2017-18 to the 2025-26 Budget
@beatthestreet10
CLSA VIEW ON FINANCIALS
Another Boost To Liquidity
New LCR Guidelines Positive For Liquidity
RBI Has Increased Run-Off Rates For Deposits
Increase Is Only 2.5 PPS Vs 5 PPS Suggested In The Draft Circular
RBI Expects New Guidelines To Result In 6 PPS Improvement In The System-Wide LCR
Initial Estimates: Increases System-Wide Liquidity Available For Redeployment By ₹2.5 Lk Cr
PAT Impact Of RBI Move Is Modest, It Would Be Seen As Sentimentally Positive
@beatthestreet10
GOLDMAN SACHS VIEW ON CONSUMERS
Catalysts In Place For A Growth Revival
Consumption Has Lagged GDP Growth In The Past Few Years Due To Multiple Headwinds
Catalysts In Place For Revival In FY26: Tax Cut, Lower Food Inflation, Lower Interest Rates
Pay Commission, Key State Elections Could Add Further Tailwind In FY27
Lower Input Costs To Aid Margin Expansion In FY26 For Many Cos
Rising Tide Will Raise All Boats, But We Prefer Companies With Bottom Up Drivers
Preferred Stocks With Bottom Up Drivers Are Godrej Cons, Tata Cons, Marico, Titan, Trent & Pidilite
@beatthestreet10
MORGAN STANLEY VIEW ON INDIA STRATEGY
Why India Continues To Be Our Top Emerging Market Pick
India's Low Beta Is Helping It To Significantly Outperform Amid Global Equity Price Volatility
Weak Global Markets Can Cap Absolute Returns
Global Bull Market Could Coincide With Relative Underperformance For Low-Beta Market Like India
Fundamentals Remain Strong
Strong Macro Stability With Falling Inflation Volatility
Strong Macro Stability With Improving Terms Of Trade, Declining Primary Deficit
Mid-To-High-Teens Earnings Growth Annually Over The Next 3-5 Years
See A Reliable Source Of Domestic Risk Capital
A Dovish RBI, Rupee No Longer Overvalued, Sluggish Oil Prices & Likely Indo-US Trade Deal
Technical Are Favorable
Recent Decline Was Orderly With Hardly Any Increase In Implied Volumes
Persistent Retail Buying Underpins Its Structural Nature
Foreign Portfolios Positioning Is Weakest Since We Have Had The Data In 2000
There Are Early Signs That Their View On India Is Shifting
Our Proprietary Sentiment Indicator Is In Buy Zone
@beatthestreet10
Nuvama on Banks
RBI has revised its LCR guidelines favourably, in contrast to previously negative draft
Final guidelines reduce runoff rate for digital deposits to 2.5% from 5%
As such, the norms are positive for the banking sector
@beatthestreet10
HSBC on Banks
Final LCR guidelines substantially +ve, especially those with higher outflow rates
This could release cRs2.2tn in b/s liquidity, add to loan/deposit growth & NIM accretive
These guidelines also indicate that regulatory environment should be quite benign going fwd
@beatthestreet10
MS on Banks
RBI issued final guidelines on LCR that we view as a material +ve & should help improve system LCR by 6ppts
Banks that have higher shares of trust deposits, will likely be key beneficiaries
Guidelines should provide bks with more ammunition for growth& improve margins
@beatthestreet10
POONAWALLA FINCORP: Poonawalla Fincorp Enters Consumer Durables Loans Market to Accelerate Customer Acquisition and Unlock High-Yield Growth
Poonawalla Fincorp has launched its Consumer Durables Loans business and a digital EMI card with pre-approved limits, enabling easy purchases of consumer goods.
This move marks its entry into a fast-growing retail lending segment, aiming to boost scalability, profitability, and customer lifetime value.
The offering supports instant digital onboarding and creates cross-sell opportunities for personal loans and other financial products.
@beatthestreet10
CLSA on Chola Investment & Fin
Downgrade to Hold, TP Rs 1600
Stock now trades at 4x PB (FY27), a mere 9% discount to the market leader, Bajaj Finance.
In the past, it has rarely traded at such elevated multiples, & only in scenarios where its AUM growth was 30-40%.
Today, growth is in mid-20s & expect a 18-20% Cagr over next 2 yrs
While Chola is favourably poised to benefit from a rate cut cycle, an extra 25bp rate cut only improves its NIM by 7-8bp & EPS by c.2%
@beatthestreet10
360 ONE WAM : Co. has received SEBI approval on April 21, 2025, to acquire the entire equity of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd.
The company will proceed with the transaction after receiving remaining regulatory approvals.
@beatthestreet10
GS on Consumer Sector
See a few catalysts which could trigger a gradual
revival in consumption growth in FY26
Preferred stocks
GCPL, Tata Consumer/Marico within consumer staples
Titan/Trent (market share led growth)
Pidilite(non-core biz expansion)
@beatthestreet10
Capex - Private - Data centers - Adani to invest $10 Bn
The aim is to scale up the data centre portfolio to 10 GW of capacity.
Adani is focusing on government-to-government contracts, with ongoing land acquisition.
NUVAMA ON OBEROI REALTY
Hold, target price ₹1,793 vs ₹2,101
Oberoi Realty (OBER) delivered pre-sales of 850 cr in Q4FY25, down 52% YoY/56% QoQ due to lack of launches during the quarter
FY25 bookings at ₹5,270 cr were up 31% YoY (its highest ever) from selling 1.3msf (up 19% YoY) across 928 units
The pace of launches and inventory liquidation Spbuh shall determine the stock's trajectory
Weakness in housing volumes has led to concerns about future sales growth and compels us to slash NAV premium to 35% from 60% earlier
@beatthestreet10
MAZAGON DOCK: Capt (IN Retd) Jagmohan, has been appointed as Chairman & Managing Director on the Board of the Company w.e.f the date of his assumption of charge of the post From 21 April 2025 till the date of his superannuation i.e. 30 September 2029 or until further orders
@beatthestreet10
GUJARAT ALKALIES: Updates on Chiorotoluene Plant
GACL has dispatched the first consignment of Benzyl Chloride from its Dahej plant on April 21, 2025.
The plant will produce three products: Benzyl Chloride, Benzyl Alcohol, and Benzaldehyde.
Production of the remaining two is underway and will be available soon.
@beatthestreet10
NIPPON LIFE AMC ; Update On Cyber Incident
The company shut down and isolated its systems after a cyber incident, then began restoration with cybersecurity experts.
Core systems were restored by the next working day, followed by the mobile app and website, which are now fully functional.
Alternate channels remained unaffected, and there was no material impact on operations.
@beatthestreet10
360 ONE WAM DEAL WITH UBS ; Collaborates With UBS On Wealth Management In India & International markets - CNBCTV 18
UBS Will Also Purchase Warrants Amounting To 4.95% Stake In 360 ONE
Warrants Will Be Convertible Into Equivalent Number Of Shrs In 18 Mths
To Acquire India Wealth Biz, Stock Broking Svcs & Distribution Biz Of UBS
Acqn Of Wealth, Stock Broking, Distribution & PMS Biz Will Be For 307 Cr
@beatthestreet10
HG INFRA ; WINS ORDER
H.G. Infra Engineering Limited has been declared as a qualified bidder by the Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd for 300 MW/600 MWH out of the project of 500 MW/1000 MWh for setting up of Standalone Battery Energy Storage Systems in Gujarat under Tariff-Based Global Competitive Bidding (Phase-VI).
Time Period; 24 Months
@beatthestreet10
GOLD'S DREAM RUN CONTINUES
Gold hit a record high above $3,460/oz Today amid rising economic uncertainty.
The surge followed President Trump's renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell and his call for immediate rate cuts to avoid a slowdown.
@beatthestreet10
NUVAMA ON MAHINDRA LOGISTICS
Hold, target price ₹325
Reported consolidated EBITDA of ₹77.7 cr in Q4FY25, 2% above our estimates, largely led by a surprise in contract logistics
Express segment volume improved 15% QoQ on seasonality, customer wins, and recovery in volumes in existing customers, only to be offset by lower yields (load and customer mix)
Express EBITDA losses continued to be at elevated levels of 14.9 cr, though management hopes to see a turnaround in anagen H2FY26
Reckon revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 11%/20% over FY25-28E
Await a decisive turnaround in express logistics and improvement in the general economic scenario to become constructive on MLL
Value the stock at 7x EV/EBITDA
@beatthestreet10
360 ONE WAM enters into exclusive strategic collaboration with UBS on wealth management in India and international markets
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India-U.S. Set Stage for New Trade Pact
U.S. Vice President Vance and PM Modi have outlined the Terms of Reference for a new Bilateral Trade Agreement, following Modi’s Feb 13 meeting with President Trump. The talks are part of the U.S.-India COMPACT initiative—focused on military, commerce, and tech collaboration.
The deal aims to:
- Boost cooperation
- Expand market access
- Cut trade barriers
- Deliver early wins by 2025
@beatthestreet10
ORGANIC RECYCLING: Engineering New Frontiers: IIT Kharagpur and ORSL Collaborate on Waste-to-Energy and Catalytic
Technology Research
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GAIL
PNGRB order only post public consultation as per process
PNGRB may issue order for revision of transport tariff
If tariff revised upwards, may have positive impact on transmission revenue of co
@beatthestreet10
IKIO LIGHTING: IKIO Lighting Limited shall be changed to IKIO Technologies Limited w.e.f. April 25, 2025
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INDUSIND BANK: IndusInd ropes in EY to conduct another audit, to probe Rs 600cr discrepancy in microfinance portfolio - ET
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Rupee Opens At 85.14/$ Vs Monday’s Close Of 85.13/$
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NIFTY TO OPEN 60 PTS GAP UP
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