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July 21, 2025
- Daily Morning Report Date: 21.07.2025
- NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24968.40 FII: 374.74 cr DII: 2103.51 cr
- (21st – 25th July 2025)
- As discussed in the previous report dated 14th July 2025, market behaviour remained on expected lines during the past week as continuous downward movement dragged Nifty down to 24918.65.
- Further, three consecutive bearish candles on the weekly chart indicate strong selling pressure, suggesting that buyers are losing control and the uptrend may be ending. If Nifty continues its southward journey and breaks decisively below 24825–24751, it may slip to 24687–24547. If supply pressure increases, it may test 24406.
- On the upside, the recent swing high of 25255 may act as immediate resistance. A breakout and sustained move above this could push Nifty to 25390–25533. A minor resistance is also seen at 25108 between the range of 24968 to 25255.
- Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
- SPOT: 56283.00 PCR: 0.72 Max CE OI at 57000 & Max PE OI at 56000
- On 21st July 2025, the Bank Nifty index closed at 56283.00, down 0.96% from the previous day's close. The total movement during the session was 500.30 points. The index made a high of 56705.15 and a low of 56204.85.
- Technical View on Daily Chart:
- The important support and resistance levels are at 55900 and 56600, respectively.
- Intraday Technical Strategy for Bank Nifty
- Go long above 56420 with a stop loss of 56370 and a target of 56560.
- Go short below 56145 with a stop loss of 56190 and a target of 56007.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 45.30. (Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought.)
- Bank Nifty Day SMA Analysis:
- Bank Nifty is trading above 4 of 8 SMAs (50, 100, 150, 200-day) and below 4 SMAs (5, 10, 20, 30-day).
- No active candlestick pattern was identified in Bank Nifty.
- Macros.
- 1. Dollar index @ 98.175
- 2. S&P Vix @ 16.41
- 3. Brent crude @ 69.40
- 4. US 10 years bond yield @ 4.42
- Note: Mr. Trump has been pushing for a 15–20% tariff on the European Union, effective from 1st April 2025.
- US equities remained flat as a barrage of Q2 earnings is due this week. Two of the 'Magnificent Seven' will report on Wednesday, likely offering cues for broader market direction. Alphabet’s results are also expected to provide insights into the AI trade.
- Focus now shifts to how Trump’s tariffs are impacting corporate earnings and forward guidance. Wall Street indices lost ground on Friday amid ongoing concerns over these tariffs. A report indicated that Trump may still impose a 15–20% levy on the EU, even if a trade deal is reached. The EU, in turn, is considering a 10% duty.
- In India, the earnings season has begun on a weak note, with disappointing results from Axis Bank and TCS weighing on sentiment.
- Conclusion: Positions should be kept light. HDFC Bank’s results missed expectations with deteriorating asset quality, and Reliance Industries also posted weak numbers. So far, earnings have been lackluster. A wait-and-watch approach is advised.
- Contributed by
- Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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- FORTIS HEALTHCARE: Court Approves Sale of SRL Trademarks for ₹8 Cr
- Delhi High Court approved sale of SRL trademarks to Agilus Diagnostics (Fortis subsidiary) for ₹8 crore via public auction.
- @beatthestreet10
- MOTILAL OSWAL ON JSW STEEL
- Target price ₹1,200 vs ₹1,180 earlier (maintaining Buy)
- In-line operating performance outlook bright
- Consolidated revenue of ₹43,200cr (flat YoY and -4% QoQ), in line with estimate as healthy NSR was offset by weak QoQ volume growth
- Steel sales volumes stood at 6.69mt (+9% YoY and -11% QoQ), impacted by planned shutdowns at Dolvi and BPSL
- EBITDA stood in line with estimate at ₹7,589cr (+38% YoY and +19% QoQ), driven by better NSR and lower coking coal costs
- EBITDA/t improved to ₹11,324/t in Q1FY26, up 26% YoY and 33% QoQ (vs estimate of ₹10,440/t)
- APAT stood at ₹2,180cr (+159% YoY and +43% QoQ), aided by improved operating profitability
- Consolidated crude steel production stood at 7.26mt (+14% YoY and -5% QoQ), impacted by planned maintenance shutdowns
- Expect double-digit revenue growth in FY26/FY27 driven by capacity ramp-up and price recovery
- EBITDA margin likely to rebound to 18-19% in FY26/FY27 on back of domestic steel price recovery led by safeguard duty
- @beatthestreet10
- HSBC on RIL
- Buy, TP Rs 1630
- Earnings supported by “one time sale of shares”, but operationally a bit light on lower O2C & retail
- UBR led Air Fibre is picking up, retail is in its last leg of turning around & co is gearing up to launch new energy
- @beatthestreet10
- Macquarie on Bandhan BK
- O-P, TP Rs 210
- 1Q: PAT miss driven by higher credit costs partly offset by higher other income
- Elevated slippages & higher write-offs drive higher credit cost
- NIM to remain under pressure in near term
- Downside risk to FY26E ROA expectations (1.5%)
- @beatthestreet10
- Jefferies on Bandhan BK
- Buy, TP Rs 215
- 1Q profit of Rs4bn (-65% YoY) tad higher than est with slightly better NII & lower credit costs
- Slippages & credit costs improved but stayed high due to stress in MFI
- Loan growth driven by lower margin secured segments &dragged NIMs
- @beatthestreet10
- NUVAMA ON RELIANCE
- Maintain Buy with target price of ₹1,767
- New Energy ecosystem to ramp up in 4-6 quarters, seen as the largest multidecadal growth driver
- Expect fully integrated 10GW polysilicon-to-module facility by end-FY26, may add 6% to consolidated PAT
- RIL developing next-gen tech across the chain such as perovskite
- Petchem expansion on track for FY27E
- 50% rise in US ethane imports to lift margins
- @beatthestreet10
- MOTILAL OSWAL ON RELIANCE
- Reiterate Buy with revised target price of ₹1,700 (earlier ₹1,685)
- Consolidated EBITDA declined 2% QoQ (+11% YoY), a 5% miss vs estimate
- Weak performance in Retail and O2C
- Reduce FY26-27E EBITDA by 1-2% and PAT by 4% due to broad-based cuts
- Expect RJio to remain the biggest growth driver with 19% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E
- Q1 was soft, but remain positive on growth across segments
- Build in CAGR of ~11% in EBITDA/PAT over FY25-28E
- @beatthestreet10
- Investec on Sona BLW
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 500
- Sona announces JV to tap Chinese EV market
- Earnings contribution initially likely to be c.5%
- Reduce customer concentration, tap new & significantly large growth avenues
- @beatthestreet10
- Citi on AU SFB
- Maintain Neutral; Cut TP to Rs 850 from Rs 873
- Core Earnings Miss: Weak NIM Profile, Elevated Credit Cost
- Unsecured and Southern mortgage stress led to higher credit cost
- FY26 Credit cost guidance raised
- NIMs contract 38 bps QoQ to 5.4%; NII disappointment
- @beatthestreet10
- Jefferies IndiaMart InterMesh
- Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 2150 from Rs 2000
- Q1 Review: Growth Concerns Persist
- Revenue miss; margin/profit beat
- Subscriber additions remain muted
- Collections growth remains soft
- Increase ad spends to keep margins under check
- @beatthestreet10
- Jefferies on HDFC Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 2400 from Rs 2340
- Q1: Better growth with manageable margins and asset quality
- Improving outlook on retail demand and bank's credit growth
- Growth should continue to improve & monetisation of merger synergies should help
- Stays among top picks
- @beatthestreet10
- CLSA on HDFC Bank
- Maintain Outperform; Hike TP to Rs 2300 from Rs 2200
- Rock solid
- Good all-round performance
- Good delivery on deposits and NIM
- Asset quality remains pristine; good job on opex
- @beatthestreet10
- JPMorgan on RIL
- Maintain Overweight; Hike TP to Rs 1695 from Rs 1568
- Headline behind; better telecom margins; New Energy progress key positives
- Retail growth decelerated to 11% YoY; missing estimates
- O2C EBITDA was weaker than forecast
- Overall, RIL is positioned for better PAT growth in FY26/27
- @beatthestreet10
- CLSA on ICICI Bank
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1700
- Steady ship in turbulent waters
- Profitability metrics holding up well while growth softens
- Strong performance on NIM; asset quality stable
- ICICI Bank is the only bank under coverage to report sequential growth in NII, despite the sharp rate cut environment
- @beatthestreet10
- Jefferies on ICICI Bank
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1760 from Rs 1710
- Q1: Better Profitability; Growth to improve
- Softer growth with better NIMs & asset quality
- Mgt expects growth to improve
- Asset quality continues to hold up well
- Deposit growth of 13% and CASA growth of 14% were healthy
- @beatthestreet10
- WILL MARKETS REVERSE OR WILL WE SEE KNEE-JERK REACTION?
- MARKETS REVERSAL TODAY?ICICI BANK/JSW STEEL-NIFTY EARNINGS AHEAD OF ESTIMATES
- BROKERAGES STILL BULLISH ON RELIANCE
- HDFC BANK MAY REMAIN RANGE BOUND ON MIXED NUMBERS
- GLOBAL CUES LARGELY UNCHANGED-NO MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT FROM TRUMP
- MOST SECTORS HAVE GIVEN STRONG WEEKLY CLOSE
- MOST ASSET CLASSES IN A SHORT TERM RANGE
- NASDAQ LIFE-TIME HIGH LEVELS-+VE FOR IT
- @beatthestreet10
- Mahindra Lifespace(+ve)
- Mahindra Industrial Park Chennai Limited, subsidiary of the Company together with its joint venture partner Sumitomo Corporation, signed Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Osaka Government to Support Japanese Businesses Entering India
- @beatthestreet10
- JIO Finance (+ve)
- Forms a 50:50 Joint venture company with Allianz Europe B.V., (“Allianz”) for carrying on reinsurance business in India
- The joint venture company will launch operations post receipt of statutory and regulatory approvals.
- @beatthestreet10
- ANTIQUE ON HDFC BANK
- Target price ₹2,270 (maintaining Buy)
- Largely in-line results
- HDFC Bank remains preferred pick among large private banks due to
- Improved growth outlook
- RoA expansion levers from deposit substitution of higher-cost borrowings
- Reduction in RIDF investments
- Lower opex as operating leverage picks up from branch additions
- Largely retaining estimates and rolling over to 1HFY28E, valuing the standalone bank at 2.3x P/B
- @beatthestreet10
- ANTIQUE ON ICICI BANK
- Target price ₹1,680 vs ₹1,640 earlier (maintaining Buy)
- NIM performance was better and profitability remains strong
- Loan growth has moderated along with broader industry trends
- Some pickup expected in 2HFY26
- Liability profile remains strong and capitalization is comfortable
- . Expect RoA in the range of 2.3%-2.4% and RoE of 16%-17% over FY27-28E %-17%
- Marginally reduce FY26-27 earnings estimates and introduce FY28 estimates based on 2.5x 1HFY28 BV and 297 for subsidiaries
- @beatthestreet10
- ANTIQUE ON JSW STEEL
- Target price ₹942 vs ₹905 earlier (maintaining Hold)
- Domestic steel demand expected to stay resilient supported by Gol's continued capex push and RBI's rate cuts
- FY26 should see continued ramp-up of the JVML plant
- BPSL's phase 2 expansion and higher captive iron ore production with three new mines in Karnataka and one in Goa
- Rolling over estimates to 1HFY28E (from FY27E earlier) based on 1HFY28E EV/EBITDA target multiple of 7.5x
- @beatthestreet10
- Stage set for a stormy Monsoon Session; Centre, opposition to face-off over Pahalgam attack, Trump's claim: Here's what to expect | India News - Times of India https://share.google/y1tW0MIufxno4ycx6
- 3 New Bill in Monsoon Session-
- The Merchant Shipping Bill, 2024
- The Indian Ports Bill, 2025
- The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Amendment Bill
- Companies in Shipping sector and Mining sector in focus
- @beatthestreet10
- Poonawalla Fin
- To consider raising fund via issuance of equity shares on preferential basis on July 25
- To consider raising limit of NCD fund raise in FY26 to ₹20,000 cr from ₹10,000 cr
- @beatthestreet10