Market Highlights

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August 25, 2025

• Daily Morning Report          Date: 25.08.2025
• NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25083.75 FII -1622.52 cr DII -329.25 cr
• (25th – 29th Aug 2025)
• As discussed in the previous report dated 18th August 25, market behaviour remained on expected lines during the past week. Buyers took control, pushing the rally up to 25153, but failed to sustain and slipped towards our level of 24877, finally closing near it at 24870.10.
• A shooting star candle on the weekly chart indicates bears might be taking control in the short term, with bulls losing ground. This southward move may find support around 24746 to 24623. If these levels fail, it may slip further to 24500–24375.
• On the upside, 24995 to 25121 may act as immediate resistance. A sustained move above these levels can push Nifty towards 25243–25365.
• Bank Nifty Outlook
• Spot: 55149.50 | PCR: 0.52 | Max CE OI: 57000 | Max PE OI: 57000
• On 22nd August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55149.50 (-606.05, -1.09%). The index moved 642.40 points during the session, hitting a high of 55745 and a low of 55102.60.
• Technical View:
• Key support at 54500 and resistance at 55800
• Intraday support at 54970 and resistance at 55320
• Strategy:
• • Go long above 55320 with SL 55265, target 55500
• • Go short below 54970 with SL 55031, target 54795
• The RSI stands at 40.50 (below 30 = oversold, above 70 = overbought).
• Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
• Bank nifty is trading above 2 out of 8 SMA’s (150, 200 Day).
• Bank nifty is trading below 6 out of 8 SMA’s. (5, 10, 20, 30, 50,100 Day)
• No active candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Macros
• 1. Dollar index @ 97.815
• 2. S&P Vix @ 14.22 (-14.34%)
• 3. Brent Crude @ 67.33
• 4.10 Years bond yield @ 4.271
• Note: Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, said the central bank could possibly cut rates in September amid rising risks to the labor market. His comments were relatively dovish compared to recent Fed signals, leading markets to ramp up bets on a September cut. Wall Street indexes rose sharply, reversing most of last week’s losses.
• Campgroup Fed Watch (which tracks probabilities of Fed rate changes implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures) now indicates the probability of a September cut has risen from 75% to 87.2%.
• For Indian markets, FIIs have added fresh shorts while retail investors built long positions, likely due to the 27th Aug deadline for an additional 25% tariff. A knee-jerk reaction may occur if tariffs are levied, but a big fall looks unlikely as FIIs’ net long position at 10.77% could trigger short covering on any 250-300 point dip in Nifty (around 24,750–24,630 zone).
• ---------------------------------------------
• Data watch
• 1.Fiis net long 10.70 (Highly oversold).
• 2.Fiis sold 1622 cr in cash segment, sold 675 cr in index and 1769.88 in stock fut
• 3.Vix @ 11.72 (+3.08)
• 4.Pcr @ 0.61
• Note: Fiis net long position is @ 10.70 % after two weeks fiis net long has came above 10%. Fiis sold in all the segment.
• Data indicates Fiis have again added shorts viz 4588 lots in index fut & bought 1129 lots on net-net basis Fiis has added short of -3459 contracts.
• We mentioned on thursday that Pcr ratio is on higher side & vix is almost on bottom which was indicating small dips is coming & dip of almost 175-190 points came in nifty ,
• Now 24770 -24630 will be extremely imp level to defend
• ---------------------------------------------
• Contributed by
• Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
• -------------------------------------xxxxxxx-------------------------------------------------------------------xxxxxxx---------------------------------
• GS On TVS Motors
• Rare-earth Metal Shortage Eases For Indian EV Makers
• No Upside From GST Cuts Yet, As Policy Is Still Awaited
• Neutral Call, Target Price Raised Το ₹3,430/Sh
• Co To Launch NTORQ 150 & New Electric Scooter Between Aug 28-Sep 1
• Launches Likely To Strengthen Leadership In ICE & EV Scooter Segments
• @beatthestreet10
• Citi on IT Sector
• FY26E is the third slow growth year for our Indian IT coverage
• Common view is that it is macro driven and should be resolved with rate cuts etc.
• Believe the slowdown is due to a combination of factors and not only macro
• Multiple data points suggest that overall IT spending is not bad
• @beatthestreet10
• Jefferies on Bajaj Finance
• Recommendation Buy
• Target Price : ₹1,100
• Mgmt clarified that while SME segment is seeing some pressure, stress isn't as high as feared
• Credit cost for FY26 can be near guided range of 185-195bps of loans & loan growth can be 23-24% YoY
• Rajeev's role as MD is till Mar-28 & thereafter there would be new CEO from internal candidates
• Jefferies India Strategy
• Met several very senior bureaucrats/experts in Delhi
• Upcoming GST rate rationalization has been more than a year in making and should aid consumption, without much fiscal hit
• Govt is preparing for the worst case US tariff situation though hopes of improvement exist
• India/China relationship improving, but that's going on for more than a year
• Govt. focus is on a renewed reforms push with action to be visible soon
• More rate cuts likely, Govt not concerned on growth
• @beatthestreet10
• JM Financial on ITC Hotels
• Recommendation Sell
• Target Price : ₹215
• Initiates sell
• Solid fundamentals, stretched valuations
• Fee business to scale up rapidly
• Strong balance sheet but growth restricted in near term
• No new asset getting commissioned till FY28
• @beatthestreet10
• Kotak Inst on RIL
• Buy, TP Rs 1555
• With a significant 33% decline in capex, R-Jio became FCF positive & also enabled RIL to be FCF positive on a consolidated basis in FY2025.
• However, due to the higher retail/O2C/New Energy capex, overall capex was flat yoy at Rs1.3 tn.
• With capex not likely to rise much, & amid improving profitability of key businesses (ex-E&P), expect FCF to rise further
• Investec on IT
• Risk reward profile has improved in past month with Tier-1s now offering 10-15%+ 1 yr returns
• Upgrade Infosys to BUY, TP Rs 1655
• A potential rate cut in US & ramp ups of recent vendor consolidation deals should aid an improving growth trajectory going forward
• Prefer TechM, Infosys, TCS amongst Tier-1s
• Mphasis, Zensar, KPIT amongst Tier-2s
• JEFFERIES ON CRDMO
• India CRDMO At Inflection Point
• Ind Evolving From Quasi-chemical Firms To Strategic Innovation Partners
• China+1 A Structural Trend, High-teens Rev CAGR Expected For A Decade
• Healthy Pipeline Across Sai, Piramal, Divi's, & Cohance
• Initiate Buy Call On Cohance, Target Price At ₹1,150/share
• Upgrade Divi's To 'Buy' Call, Target Price At ₹7,150/share
• Sai Life Top Pick, Target Price At 1,100/share
• Piramal Pharma Buy Call, Target Price At ₹260/share
• NSE ; Registered investor base stood at 11.8 crore in July 2025, adding 15.1 lakh investors during the month.
• Top five states (MH, UP, GJ, WB and RJ) accounted for ~48% of the investor base in July'2025.
• The top 10 districts accounted for 18.2% of new investor registrations in Jul'25.
• The share of young investors (below 30 years) in the registered base has increased from 23.5% in Mar'20 to 38.9% in Jul'25.
• More than 56% of the new investors added in FY26 so far* were less than 30 years old with a median age of 28 years.
• * April- July 2025
• HSBC ON TRENT
• Maintains 'Buy' With Target Price Of ₹6,500
• Store Network Concentrated, But Well-Spread Out Within Cities
• See Enough Levers To Achieve Our Estimated Same Store Sales Growth
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• Auto cos push govt to implement new GST rates to coincide with Navratri period on Sept 22
• Companies fear negative impact on festive sales as buyers wait for new GST rates
• Auto Ind has also sought resolution of procedural issues including those related to input tax credit
• FILTRON ENGINEERS : CO TO CONSIDER FUNDRAISING VIA PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
• Board Meeting: Scheduled on 27th August 2025 to discuss raising funds through preferential issue / private placement of securities (cash/other than cash).
• GODREJ PROPERTIES : CO. SELLS ₹1,000 CR+ HOMES AT LAUNCH OF “GODREJ REGAL PAVILION” IN HYDERABAD
• Strong Sales: 683 homes sold worth ₹1,000+ crore at project launch.
• Hyderabad Demand: 2nd successful project launch in 2025 crossing ₹1,000 cr sales milestone.
• KEEP AN EYE FOR BFSI STOCKS
• FROM 10:15PM
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• annual banking conference. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, SBI Chairman C.S. Setty..and others
• MOSL On ER&D
• Initiate Sell on Tata Tech; TP Rs 580
• An engineering specialist facing headwinds
• Initiate Sell on Tata Elxsi; TP Rs 4600
• A design-led leader with near-term speed bumps
• Initiate Buy on KPIT Tech; TP Rs 1600
• A software powerhouse
• Rev projected to reach $1b by FY28E, clocking 15% CAGR over FY25-28E
• EBIT margins are expected to expand from 17.1% in FY25 to 19% in FY28E supported by scale benefits & acquisitions like Caresoft
• JEFFERIES ON COHANCE LIFESCIENCES
• Initiate Coverage: Buy, Target Price ₹1,150
• Global leader in camptothecin-based payload manufacturing
• Destocking nearing completion
• Cohance is well-placed to benefit from ADC industry tailwinds
• With a strong pipeline and multiple growth levers, the company is expected to deliver 20% sales CAGR and 26% EBITDA CAGR over ON FY25-28E
• JEFFERIES ON DIVIS
• Target Price Rs 7150 vs Rs 6750 earlier (upgrade from Hold to Buy)
• Divi's has the best GLP-1 pipeline in Indian CRDMO and is a key candidate to benefit from the China+1 strategy
• Generics division showing signs of growth
• Expect CS growth to continue at 16% CAGR through FY28, supported by GLP-1 launches, China+1 tailwinds, and Big Pharma partnerships
• Expect continued growth momentum in CS with some near-term volatility
• New launches in generics should drive growth recovery, leading to 14% sales CAGR and 20% EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E
• MOSL on IT
• KPIT Tech – Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 1600
• Tata Tech – Initiate Sell with TP of Rs 580
• Tata Elxsi – Initiate Sell with TP of Rs 4600
• KPIT is well-positioned to capitalize on rising software complexity in vehicles
• Tata Tech relatively higher share of mechanical engineering and on-site delivery results in lower margins
• Tata Elxsi structural headwinds could cap margin recovery well below historical peaks
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