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August 21, 2025

• Daily Morning Report            Date: 21.08.2025
• NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25050.55 FII -1100.09 cr DII 1806.34 cr
• As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines. Nifty opened on a negative note, tested the support of 24927 (low of 24929.70), and from there, bulls pushed the index up to our level of 25087 (high of 25088.70).
• A bullish candle on the daily chart signals continuation of the current positive trend, with resistance seen around 25103–25153. A sustained move above these levels may drive Nifty to 25204–25255.
• On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25000–24948. A break below these levels and sustained weakness could drag Nifty to 24897–24845.
• Bank Nifty Outlook:
• Spot: 55698.50 | PCR: 0.71 | Max CE OI: 57000 | Max PE OI: 57000
• On 20th August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55698.50, down 166.65 points (-0.30%).
• The index moved 235.25 points during the session, making a high of 55812.60 and a low of 55577.35.
• Technical View:
• Key support and resistance are placed at 55450 and 56000.
• Intraday support and resistance are at 55633 and 55765.
• Intraday Strategy:
• Go long above 55765 with stop loss 55740 and target 55825.
• Go short below 55630 with stop loss 55655 and target 55570.
• The RSI stands at 47.30, indicating neutral momentum (below 30 oversold, above 70 overbought).
• Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
• Bank nifty is trading above 5 out of 8 SMA’s (5, 10, 100, 150, 200 Day).
• Bank nifty is trading below 3 out of 8 SMA’s. (20, 30, 50 Day)
• No active candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Macros:
• 1.Dollar index @ 98.155
• 2.Vix @ 15.69 ( +.77%)
• 3.Brent crude @ 67.11
• 4.U.S. 10 years bond yield @ 4.295
• Note: Wall Street indexes were spooked by hawkish signals from the Fed’s July meeting minutes. The minutes showed most Fed members backed a wait-and-see approach on rate cuts, amid concerns over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
• Markets trimmed bets on a September rate cut after the minutes. Fed fund futures now price an 80.6% chance of a 25 bps cut, down from 84.4% a day earlier, CME FedWatch showed.
• In Indian markets, FIIs remain in selling mode with heavy shorts in the index (FIIs net long at just 9.99%, meaning 90% still short). Some short covering is expected.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which may offer more policy cues. His speech follows softer July readings on consumer inflation and payrolls, which had earlier boosted hopes for a September rate cut.
• ---------------------------------------------
• Data watch
• 1.Fiis net long 9.9 % (Highly oversold).
• 2.Fiis sold 1100 cr in cash segment, sold 323.31 cr in index and 1067.57 in stock fut
• 3.Vix @ 11.78 (-0.08%)
• 4.Pcr @ 1.34 (weekly) , 1.11 (monthly)
• Note: Fiis net long position is @ 9.9 % still in highly over sold zone , Fiis again sold in all the segment Directional selling by Fiis is 2491 cr & Diis bought 1806 cr in cash segment.
• Pcr ratio is weekly expire is @ 1.34 still @ comfortable level but will get in overbought zone soon so a mild dip is expected form higher zone and that will be buying opportunity as Vix again is hovering around 12 & Fiis net long is @ 9.9 in highly oversold zone.
• Lower vix ( 11.78 ) & Higher Pcr ratio i.e @ 1.34 ( if goe around 1.75-1.85 ) a mild dip of 100-125 points may come .
• We mentioned many times in last 10-12 days lower Vix & fiis net long indicating shorts will be covered soon , Now 25133 will be immediate hurdle if nifty able to close above 25133 ( mark my words nifty shorts will cover & will go up to 25380-25450.
• ---------------------------------------------
• Contributed by
• Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
• -------------------------------------xxxxxxx-------------------------------------------------------------------xxxxxxx---------------------------------
• Kotak Securities – Vinati Organics
• Sell | Target ₹1,280 (Earlier ₹1,170)
• ▪️ Input cost benefits likely passed along
• ▪️ Muted revenue growth offset by sharp margin expansion
• ▪️ Management reiterates growth outlook; growth projects pending
• ▪️ Key risks: Project slippages & competition
• @beatthestreet10
• Jefferies – NBFCs Q1 Review
• Growth moderates & asset quality pressure rises
• ▪️ NIMs range-bound QoQ; likely to improve Q2 onward (SBI Card, Chola Finance)
• ▪️ Growth expected to stabilize; credit costs to moderate in H2
• ▪️ Post-monsoon pickup & festive demand are key
• ▪️ Top picks: Bajaj Finance, Chola Finance & Shriram Finance; Muthoot – defensive play
• @beatthestreet10
• Jefferies – Bajaj Finserv
• Buy | Target ₹2,420
• ▪️ Poised to benefit from lower rates & improving profitability in life & general insurance
• ▪️ New ventures (mutual fund, healthcare, tech) add option value
• ▪️ Limited impact expected from Allianz exit & Jio Financial entry
• @beatthestreet10
• Nuvama – Hexaware Technologies
• Buy | Target ₹950
• ▪️ Revenue in a sweet spot, expected to outstrip industry growth
• ▪️ Multi-pronged vertical presence & strong clientele
• ▪️ Stable margins and cash flow profile
• ▪️ Recent correction enhances appeal
• Emkay – Insurance
• Group of Ministers suggests GST exemption on Retail Life & Health Insurance
• ▪️ Scope of exemption remains unclear
• ▪️ ITC benefit likely to go away
• ▪️ Price for end-consumer expected to decrease (exact impact unclear)
• ▪️ Removal of ITC will shift focus to commissions & non-salary opex
• Sammaan Capital – Foreign Currency Bond Issue Approved
• Committee Approval: Board’s Securities Issuance & Investment Committee approves foreign currency bond issuance
• Global Listing: Bonds to be listed on SGX & India INX – boosts international investor participation
• Investor Presentation: Preliminary offering circular & presentation available on company website
• Quick Meeting: Decision taken in committee meeting (6:45 AM – 7:00 AM IST)
• Impact:
• Positive: Enhances capital raising ability, global visibility, potential funding diversification
• Caution: Adds foreign currency debt exposure → subject to forex risk
• JPM – Reliance Industries
• Overweight | TP ₹1,695
• ▪️ Relative valuations reasonable despite YTD outperformance
• ▪️ Implied holdco discount on Jio/Retail remains elevated
• ▪️ Better O2C margins, potential tariff hikes & improved retail growth could help
• MOSL – Plastic Pipes
• Sector Outlook: Rebound
• ▪️ PVC pipes recovery post weak FY25; gradual price uptick FY26
• ▪️ DGTR's ADD recommendation & low PVC prices to aid recovery
• ▪️ Capacity additions to improve supply chain & margins
• ▪️ Recovery momentum from 2QFY26; healthy volumes from Jul-Aug 25
• ▪️ FY26 guidance: double-digit volume growth
• ▪️ Top picks: Supreme Inds (TP ₹5,350), Astral (TP ₹1,650), Prince Pipes (TP ₹440)
• MOSL – JSW Infra
• Maintain Buy | TP ₹380
• ▪️ Ports & logistics expansion to drive sustainable growth
• ▪️ FY26 cargo volume growth guidance: 10%; stronger 2HFY26 expected
• ▪️ Long-term plan: expand port capacity to 400MTPA by FY30
• ▪️ Mitigating concentration risk; opening new revenue pools
• ▪️ Reducing dependence on captive JSW Group cargo
• ▪️ Expanding into containerized, liquid & diversified cargo
• ▪️ Projected CAGR: Cargo 13%, Revenue 22%, EBITDA 23% (FY25-27E)
• Jefferies – Bajaj Finserv
• Buy | TP ₹2,420
• ▪️ Strong tailwinds from lower rates benefiting Bajaj Finance (BAF)
• ▪️ BALIC profitability improving steadily
• ▪️ BAGIC to gain from profitable growth & motor TP hike
• ▪️ New ventures (mutual funds, healthcare, tech) add option value
• ▪️ Limited impact from Allianz exit & Jio FS entry
• ▪️ Lending & non-lending platforms relatively insulated from economic cycles
• ▪️ Upside: Lower credit cost at BAF, motor TP hike at BAGIC, BALIC improvement
• ▪️ Expansion opportunities in Bajaj Health & Bajaj Direct tie-ups
• ▪️ Stake in BAF trades at ~17% holdco discount; other businesses offer upside
• ▪️ Expect 22% CAGR in core earnings
• Macquarie – Food Delivery
• Eternal: Maintain Underperform | TP ₹200 (Earlier ₹150)
• Swiggy: Maintain Underperform | TP ₹285 (Earlier ₹260)
• ▪️ Aggressive expansion lifts GOV in quick commerce
• ▪️ Material cut in earnings forecasts through FY28E
• ▪️ Despite higher target prices, intrinsic valuations remain lower
• HSBC – Agri Inputs
• ▪️ Pesticide prices rising; product inventories moderating for key herbicides
• ▪️ China’s policy measures to address outdated capacities & competition positive, but concrete steps needed
• Recommendations:
• ▪️ Buy: UPL (TP ₹775), DAGRI (TP ₹1,850)
• ▪️ Hold: PI (TP ₹3,500), Bayer Crop (TP ₹5,500)
• ▪️ Reduce: RALI (TP ₹250), Tata Chemicals (TP ₹780)
• GS – Delhivery
• Neutral | Target ₹390 (Earlier ₹375)
• ▪️ Growth acceleration mainly driven by E-com Express
• ▪️ Headwinds from industry growth; quick-commerce market share gains from e-commerce
• ▪️ Yield dilution from higher proportion of light parcels limits upside