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October 03, 2025

  • Daily Morning Report                     Date: 03.10.2025
  • NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24836.30 FII -1605.20 cr DII 2916.14 cr
  • As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines, as bulls took advantage of losing downward momentum and pushed Nifty up to 24867.95.
  • A long bullish candle on the daily chart suggests prices have reached support after correction, shifting short-term sentiment to bullish. If Nifty sustains above 24883, it may rally to 24930–24975, with chances to test 25023 if demand strengthens.
  • On the downside, 24790–24743 may act as immediate support. A break below could drag Nifty to 24697–24651.
  • Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
  • SPOT: 55347.95 Pcr: 1.10 Max CE OI: 57000 Max PE OI: 55000
  • On October 1st, 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55347.95 (+712.10 / +1.30%), with a movement of 824.20 points. It made a high of 55406.75 and a low of 54582.55.
  • Technical view:
  • Support and resistance levels are 54750 and 55750.
  • Intraday support and resistance are 55121 and 55574.
  • Strategy:
  • Go long above 55574 with SL 55499 and target 55801.
  • Go short below 55121 with SL 55196 and target 54894.
  • RSI for Bank Nifty is at 55.30 (below 30 = oversold, above 70 = overbought).
  • Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
  • Bank nifty is trading above 7 out of 8 SMA’s (5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 150, 200 Day).
  • Bank nifty is trading below 1 out of 8 SMA’s. (100, Day)
  • One bullish candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
  • • Long Line Uptrend
  • Macros:
  • 1. Dollar index @ 97.597
  • 2. S&P 500 vix @ 16.21
  • 3. Brent crude @ 65.16
  • 4.10 years bond yields is @ 4.117
  • Note:
  • After Trump’s tariffs, new trade alignments are emerging. Major economies hit by U.S. tariff measures are diversifying trade, and India is no exception, having faced strong tariff pressure. India has been actively negotiating new agreements.
  • The EFTA trade pact came into effect on Wednesday. New Zealand has revived talks after a decade and aims for a deal within two months. India is also negotiating with Chile, Oman, Peru, the EU, and has launched talks with the Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Russia).
  • These agreements will take time to show impact, but over the years they will help absorb the tariff shock from the U.S., supported by government measures like GST reforms, income tax relief, and RBI’s liberal policy.
  • --------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • Data Watch
  • 1. FIIs net long at 6.7% (highly oversold)
  • 2. VIX at 10.28 (-7.14%)
  • 3. FIIs sold Rs.1,605 crore in the cash segment, Rs.128 crore in index futures, and Rs.307 crore in stock futures
  • 4. PCR: Weekly 1.24, Monthly 1.03
  • 5. Open interest position of Institutions & Retail:
  • A. FIIs
  • Added 1,944 contracts on the long side & 2,764 contracts on the short side (net -820 contracts)
  • In stock futures, FIIs added 1,34,653 long contracts and 1,24,913 short contracts (net +9,740)
  • B. DIIs
  • Added 1,226 contracts on the long side & 75 contracts on the short side (net +1,151 contracts)
  • In stock futures, DIIs added 1,140 contracts (net +1,140)
  • C. Retail Clients
  • Bought 375 long contracts & covered shorts in 6,764 contracts (net +7,139)
  • In stock futures, retail clients added 18,763 long contracts & created 6,322 short contracts (net +12,441)
  • Note:
  • FIIs’ net long position stands at 6.7%, indicating a highly oversold zone. VIX declined by 7.14%, reflecting calmness in the market (VIX represents the Greed & Fear index). PCR levels are also comfortable.
  • Open interest positions suggest that despite the shorts created by FIIs, retail clients managed to outweigh them, while DIIs remain largely on the sidelines in both index and stock futures. Short covering is expected to continue, which could take Nifty to the 25,180–25,200 zone.
  • One key point: short covering typically happens at a much faster pace than fresh build-up, and profit booking also tends to occur more rapidly than new short positions. Data on Wednesday indicated both short
  • covering as well as some fresh build-up.
  • --------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • Contributed by
  • Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
  • -------------------------------------xxxxxxx-------------------------------------------------------------------xxxxxxx---------------------------------
  • RELIANCE, SUPREME PETRO , MRPL, CHENNAI PETRO : India is poised to become the next major player in the global petrochemicals industry Says S&P
  • BIRLASOFT : CO APPOINTS KOMAL JAIN AS CEO – AMERICAS
  • New Leadership – Komal Jain appointed CEO–Americas & Senior Management Personnel, effective Oct 2, 2025.
  • SHRIRAM FINANCE; MUFG Set sights on 20% stake in shriram finance for $2,6B co denies on this news
  • SWIGGY ; Swiggy Expands High Protein Category to 160+ cities; Launches New Subcategories and ‘Protein Minis
  • Jefferies on Cement Sector
  • Cement: Prices Hold as Intense Monsoon Ends
  • Cement prices (ex-GST related changes) was marginally lower by 0.5% MoM
  • YTD FY26 price is tracking 5-6% higher YoY vs FY26 est of +4% YoY
  • For Q2, price (ex-GST) remained relatively steady (1-1.5% dip QoQ), despite severe monsoons hurting demand
  • GST rate cut from 28% to 18% has reflected on cement cos passing the benefit
  • NUVAMA ON APL APOLLO TUBES
  • Nuvama maintains BUY on APL Apollo Tubes with target price ₹2,039 (earlier ₹1,941)
  • Q2FY26 sales at 855k tons, up 13% YoY and 8% QoQ, highest quarterly volumes despite weak demand
  • Channel demand remains subdued due to liquidity crunch
  • APL offers discounts on general structures; VAP products maintain premium pricing
  • VAP mix rose to 57% from 55% last year
  • EBITDA/ton expected at INR4,900, aided by operating leverage and no ESOP costs
  • Valuation at 36x Q2FY28E EPS
  • MOSL ON AMARA RAJA
  • MOSL maintains Neutral on Amara Raja with target price 1,030
  • First gigafactory (2GWh) on track for SOP by 1HCY27
  • OE demand rising post-GST; replacement demand yet to pick up
  • Lead costs stable QoQ; tubular plant may add 300-400 bps margin
  • Recycling plant can save 30-40 bps; power costs elevated for one more quarter
  • 2,500 crore invested so far in gigafactory, R&D, and customer qualification plants
  • Further funding planned for ₹6,000-7,000 crore 16GWh project
  • Business expected to deliver 10-11% EBITDA at 10GWh scale
  • NUVAMA ON AMARA RAJA
  • Nuvama has maintained a BUY rating on Amara Raja with a target price of ₹1,120
  • The brokerage expects 2W aftermarket demand to grow 6-7% and 4W demand to rise 10-11% in FY26E
  • EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 11.5% in Q1FY26 to 13% in Q4FY26E, and further to 14% in FY27E
  • The Lead Acid Battery (LAB) business is expected to remain resilient for the next 1-2 decades
  • Amara Raja's LAB segment is likely to outpace industry growth by 3-5%, driven by market share gains and higher exports
  • Phase 1 of the lithium cell plant with 1GWh NMC chemistry is now expected to begin in H2FY27E, deferred from FY26
  • The lithium asset turnover is anticipated at 1x
  • The target price of 1,120 is based on 15x Sep-27E EPS for LAB, 169/share for lithium, and 42/share for investments
  • NUVAMA ON LG ELECTRONICS INDIA
  • Nuvama maintains BUY on LG Electronics India
  • LG Electronics India is a robust brand with strong parentage
  • Consumer durables industry expected to grow at 8-10% CAGR, expanding from ₹96,900 crore in CY24 to 1.44-1.59 lakh crore by CY29E
  • LGEIL revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew at a CAGR of 8%/5%/6% over FY19-25, with 14%/37%/44% YoY growth in FY25
  • Median post-tax ROCE/ROIC stood at 34%/89%, set increasing to 45%/106% in FY25
  • Company announced USD 600mn capex for a third unit to expand capacity for domestic and export markets
  • LGEIL stock is currently priced at 35.6x FY25 EPS
  • CLSA Price Action - Laurence Balanco
  • Outlook for the Nifty remains unchanged as the lack of follow through has resulted in the market consolidating within a newly defined range
  • This range currently spans between 24,337-24,432 on the lower end and 25,448-25,669 on the upper end
  • Crucially, just below the lower boundary of this newly established range lies a key zone of support
  • Area represents the confluence of the 200-DMA and the upper boundary of the February-April basing pattern
  • Jefferies on Allied Blenders
  • Buy , Target Price 620
  • Backward integration plans remain on track with recent addition of a PET bottle mfg. facility and work underway on a malt distillery
  • Single malt launch likely in 4-5 years
  • These factors along with distillery expansion in Maharashtra, to drive 300bps margin uplift over FY25-28e and strengthen franchise in key states
  • MS India Strategy -Ridham Desai
  • Gunning for Growth
  • Equity market may be underestimating the likely turn in the growth cycle
  • While global factors matter for India's relative performance, in our view, the earnings and market peak is still in front of us
  • India's low beta implies outperformance in a global bear market but underperformance in a bull market
  • Domestic Cyclicals > Defensives and External-facing sectors
  • Morgan Stanley On AXIS BANK
  • Overweight, Target Price 1450 From 1325
  • Revisiting the turnaround story
  • Bank has taken significant additional steps over the past year
  • Bank should get traction as the macro climate improves
  • Expect re-rating relative to large private banks to be gradual
  • Morgan Stanley On Kotak Bank
  • Overweight, Target Price 2600
  • Believe the share price will rise relative to the industry over the next 30 days
  • Remain positive given its strong setup and exposure to segments that benefit from macro recovery
  • After two years of headwinds, the bank is now on the front foot with rising disbursements and stable margins
  • JP MORGAN ON AUTO
  • September 2025: a month where commentary matters more than data
  • Maruti underperformed industry in wholesale while retail was in-line; Hero still a key laggard in retail
  • M&M continues to outperform in PVs and Tractors
  • 2W wholesale and retail delivered similar outcomes
  • MS on Real Estate
  • Q2 - Not Weak Despite Seasonality
  • Expect the top five developers to register Q2 pre-sales of Rs 11000 cr - +44% YoY
  • H1 has reached 55% of full-year 2026 estimate
  • For Q2, expect Godrej and DLF to report stronger pre-sales than consensus expects
  • Lodha and Oberoi could disappoint
  • Goldman SACS On L&T
  • Neutral , Target 3540
  • Expect a good quarter; market focus to shift to FY27
  • Expect healthy double digit growth in revenue, EBITDA and PAT driven by a strong order book
  • Order inflow growth of 15% YoY
  • Expect EPC and installation of offshore structures in Middle East to be included
  • SAMMAAN CAPITAL CEO Says We've Given A Clear Guidance For ₹10,000 Cr Of Cash Collection For FY26 - CNBCTV18
  • SAMMAAN CAPITAL CEO Says When Large Financial Svcs Co Have To Hit Reset Button, It Usually Takes 6-8 Years
  • SAMMAAN CAPITAL CEO says Now That We Have A Solid Promoter, Hope To Build A Credible Liability Franchise - CNBCTV18
  • Note : Stock TRADES at 0.6 Times ( Cheap )
  • Valuation has been sub 1x post 2019 crisis
  • Paras Defence : Co Secures ₹46 Cr Defence Order for Anti-Drone Systems
  • Order from Ministry of Defence, Govt. of India.
  • Contract worth ₹46.19 Cr (incl. GST) for supply of Anti-Drone Systems & Drone Jammers.
  • Execution timeline: by March 2026 (tentative).
  • Domestic defence order, strengthens credibility in strategic defence tech.
  • Impact: Positive — reinforces Paras Defence’s positioning in anti-drone tech, supports revenue visibility and defence sector growth tailwinds.
  • ADANI PORTS SEPT BIZ ; Adani Ports Records All-Time High H1 Cargo & Rail Volumes; Sep’25 Cargo Up 11% YoY
  • Sep’25 Cargo: 41.6 MMT handled (+11% YoY), led by containers (+14% YoY).
  • H1 FY26 Cargo: 244.2 MMT (+11% YoY), highest ever half-yearly volume, containers up 20% YoY.
  • Sep’25 Rail Volume: 60,640 TEUs (+22% YoY), GPWIS flat at 1.63 MMT.
  • H1 FY26 Rail Volume: 358,406 TEUs (+15% YoY), GPWIS 10.98 MMT (+3% YoY).
  • Overall Impact: Strong positive — record volumes reflect robust trade activity, container growth momentum, and higher logistics contribution.
  • #Q2FY26
  • Good quarterly updates till now from:
  • Sai Silk Kalamandir
  • PC Jewellers
  • V-Mart Retail
  • Lloyds Metal and Energy
  • Bansal Wires
  • CSB Bank
  • TVS Motors
  • Eicher Motors
  • M&M
  • Tata Motors
  • Escorts
  • SG Finserv
  • HUDCO
  • IREDA
  • Decent/Avg:
  • Karur Vysya Bank
  • APL Apollo Tubes
  • Hari Om Pipes
  • Maruti
  • Bajaj Auto
  • Hero Motocorp
  • South Indian Bank
  • SSWL
  • ABD Maestro's Woodburns wins Grand Gold and Revelation Blended Whisky; Pumori Gold; Arthaus Silver at CMB 2025.
Panchkarma