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August 18, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 18.08.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24631.30 FII -1926.76 cr DII 3895.68 cr
As discussed in the previous report dated 11th August 25, market behaviour remained on expected lines during the past week as the oversold zone gave a bounce up to 24702, and on a weekly basis it closed near our resistance of 24625, i.e. at 24631.30.
An average bullish candlestick appeared on the weekly chart, suggesting mild buying pressure and attempts by buyers to take control from sellers. It also indicates indecision about Nifty’s direction, whether it will continue with the prevailing bearish trend or reverse.
Since this bullish candle appeared after a healthy correction, if Nifty gains further buying support, we may see a rally up to 24755–24877. Further strength could push Nifty towards 25000–25133.
On the downside, if the bearish trend continues, support lies around 24508–24385. A failure to hold these levels may drag it down to 24263–24140.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 55341.85 | PCR: 0.71 | Max CE OI: 57000 | Max PE OI: 57000
On 14th August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55341.85, up 160.40 points (0.29%).
The index moved 398.50 points during the session, making a high of 55472.80 and a low of 55074.30.
Technical View:
Key support is placed at 54820–54780 zone, while resistance is at 55700.
Intraday support and resistance are seen at 55230 and 55450 respectively.
Intraday Strategy:
Go long above 55450 with stop loss 55414 and target 55560.
Go short below 55232 with stop loss 55268 and target 55122.
The RSI stands at 41.90, indicating neutral momentum (below 30 is oversold, above 70 overbought).
SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 4 out of 8 SMA’s (5,100, 150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 4 out of 8 SMA’s. (10, 20, 30, 50 Day)
One Bullish candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Engulfing Uptrend
Macros:
1.Dollar index @ 97.35
2.S&P Vix @ 15.09 (+1.75)
3.Brent Crude @ 65.76
4.10 Years bond yield @ 4.3.09
Note: The much-awaited meeting between the US and Russian presidents took place on 15th August. Trump said the meeting was progressive and they agreed on many points, though no formal agreement was reached. They agreed to meet again for further discussions. Trump also said he would discuss with NATO and Ukraine before getting back to Putin. Any development on Ukraine will be a great relief for India as well.
As mentioned earlier, the Govt needed to reduce GST to boost consumption, and PM announced this in his 15th August speech. GST slabs will now be 5% and 18% instead of four slabs (5, 12, 18, 28).
Conclusion: The reduced GST slabs will boost consumption. The biggest beneficiaries will be consumer durables (ACs, fridges, washing machines), followed by cement, some auto, and insurance (reduced from 18% to 5%). GST reduction can be a game changer if a trade deal also comes through.
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Data watch
1.Fiis net long 8.7 % (Highly oversold).
2.Fiis sold - 1926.76cr in cash segment, Sold 17.85 cr in index and 1379.96 in stock future.
3.Vix @ 12.35 (+1.73%).
4.Pcr @ 0.87 (weekly), 0.96 (monthly).
Note: Fiis net long position is @ 8.7 % (highly oversold zone). Vix is hovering around 12.50-12. It will be interesting to see how Vix react after US-Russai meting & US postpone meeting on trade talk with India on August & Govt announced reduction of GST cuts to boost consumption along with making truce with China.
PM Modi announced reduction in GST which will increase consumption, We continuously mentioned Indian market are in oversold zone in-spite of the bad news and Fiis selling.
We may see some short covering & we may see some buying in Indian markets. In next 1.5-2 months markets will start performing. GST reduction will come into effect from OCT we may see some purchasing decision shifting to Oct and that may reduced some revenue .
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Goldman Sachs projects that Indian households will channel between $7 trillion and $12 trillion into financial savings instruments over the coming decade.
Motilal Oswal wrt 1QFY26 earnings - Broadly been in line!
-Severity of earnings cuts moderating compared to the previous quarters
-Nifty-50 EPS Growth is projected to rise to ~9% in FY26 (vs. an anemic 1% in FY25)
-Believe that the influence of the US tariff wars on Indian markets will be limited
Valuations: Nifty trades at 22.2x FY26E earnings, near its LPA of 20.7x
Portfolio balancing: ModelPortfolio bias remains towards large-caps (~70% weight). But have turned more constructive towards mid-caps with 22% weight vs. 16% earlier
(I) Nifty Q1FY26 earnings
-Nifty delivered an 8% YoY PAT growth in Q1FY26 vs. our est. of +5%
-Nifty reported a single-digit earnings growth for the 5th consecutive quarter since the pandemic June 2020
Nifty EPS expectations
Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 reduced by 1.2% to Rs.1108/sh
(II) Beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was balanced
-37% of the companies exceeding our estimates
-36% reported a miss at the PAT level
Earnings upgrade-to-downgrade ratio has been unfavourable at 0.6x in 1QFY26
-Earnings of 61 companies having been upgraded by >3%
-Earnings of 108 companies have been downgraded by >3%
Peer Comparison
Vikram Solar vs. Waaree Energies vs. Premier Energies vs. Websol
WHAT KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS HAPPENED?
+ve S&P upgraded India’s sovereign rating after 18 years
+ve PM Modi-GST rate cut for Diwali (on goods-not services)
+ve PM Modi-Independence Speech-Focus on Semi-conductor, Fertilizers, Defense, Hydrogen, Nuclear Energy, Critical Minerals, Employment
+ve Govt-Two rate GST structure with slabs of 5%/18% (Sources)
+ve Trump-No secondary tariffs for India as of now
Neutral-India-US trade deal to get rescheduled-Talks likely to get rescheduled to another date from Aug 25 (Sources)
MORE THAN 250 STOCKS TO BE IMPACTED!
HERE IS THE LIST!
WHAT WOULD BE THE BENEFITS COMING FROM THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS?
A.Upgrade in Sovereign Ratings-Positive for Financials, Infra, Power, Cement, Realty
ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, L&T, NTPC, PFC, REC, Ultratech Cement, Godrej Properties, DLF
B.PM Modi Booster for Independence Day-GST Rationalization-Likely
1.AC, TVs, Refrigerators, Cement, Automobile (FROM 28% TO 18%)-LIKELY
Blue Star, Voltas, Havells, Hitachi, Amber Enterprises, Dixon Tech, Ultratech Cement, ACC-Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Star Cement, M&M, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, TVS Motors, Bajaj Auto, Ola Electric, Force Motors, Atul Auto
2.Hair Oil, Jam, Fruit Juices, Namkeens, Spectacles, Medical Items, Notebooks, Bicycles, Dairy, Soaps, Ice-Cream (FROM 12% TO NIL Or 5% SLAB)-LIKELY
Dabur, Mrs Bectors, ITC, Bikaji Foods, Prataap Snacks, Gopal Snacks, Hindustan Foods, Polymedicure, GKB Opticals, Tube Investments (Cycles), Marico, Bajaj Consumer, Parag Milk, Dodla Dairy, Hatsun Agro Heritage Foods, Colgate, Vadilal
3.Agricuture, Fertilisers, Renewable Energy, Construction-Rates To Come Down (Sources to ET Now)
RCF, FACT, National Fertilizers, Chambal Fertilizers, Tata Power, Adani Green, Waree, Premier Energy, KPI Green, JSW Energy, Borosil Renewables, Inox Wind, Inox Energy, NTPC, MHPC, NTPC Green Energy, Websol Energy, Torrent Power, Insolation Energy, SJVN, Suzlon Energy, Oswal Pumps, Shakti Pumps, Coromandeal, Godrej Agrovet, UPL, Kaveri Seed, Rallis India, Jain Irrigation, Dhanuka Agritech, L&T, NCC, IRB Infra, Afcon Infra, Dilip Buildcon
4.Textile Sectors-Beneficiary of GST inverted duty structure-Rates likely to come down (Sources to ET Now)
Indocount, Nahar Spinning, Himatsingka, SP Apparels, Pearl Global, PDS. Welspun India, KPR Mills, Arvind, RSWM, Nandan Denim, Alok Industries, Vardhman Textiles, Bombay Dyeing, Nitin Spinners, Trident
5.Insurance+Health Segment likely
Major reforms underway under GST
6. 40% GST on SIN Goods likely
-Ve for Nazara Tech, Delta Corp, ITC, VST Industries, Godfrey Philips, Varun Beverages, Stanley, Ethos, Landmark Cars, Popular Vehicles
Alert-Alcohol not covered under GST, it’s a state matter
7.Special GST Rates To Continue
Diamond at 0.25%, Jewellery at 3%
Vaibhav Global, Rajesh Exports, Senco, Kalyan, Titan, Thangamayil
8.Pens, Packing Containers/Boxes, Capital Goods (Rate Cuts Less Likely)
Linc, DOMS, JK Paper, Cummins, Thermax, Siemens, ABB India
C.PM Modi Booster for Independence Day-Sectors In Focus
Semi-Conductors-Kaynes, Dixon Tech, CG Power, Tata Elxsi, ASM Tech,Moschip
Hydrogen-Reliance, L&T, ONGC, GAIL, NTPC
Critical Minerals-NMDC, GMDC, Vedanta
Nuclear Energy-HCC, BHEL, L&T, MTAR Tech
Deepwater Exploration-Reliance, ONGC, Deep Industries, Abanoffshore
Youth employment-Quess Corp, Teamlease Services, Krystal, SIS
Fertilizers-RCF, FACT, National Fertilizers, Chambal Fertilizers
Defense-HAL, BDL, BEL, Mazagaon, GRSE, Cochin Shipyard, MTAR Tech, BEML, Data Patterns, Apollo Microsystem, Solar Industries, Walchandnagar, Axiscades, Bharat Forge, ParasDefense, Premier Explosives
Solar-Tata Power, Adani Green, Waree, Premier Energy, KPI Green, JSW Energy, Borosil Renewables, Inox Wind, Inox Energy, NTPC, MHPC, NTPC Green Energy, Websol Energy, Torrent Power, Insolation Energy, SJVN
D.Global Developments on Trump and India-US Trade Deal (Neutral)
Textile, Gems+Jewellery, Pharma, Acquaculture,-still uncertain
Welspun, Gokaldas Exports, KPR Mills, Rajesh Exports, Vaibhav Global, Avanti Feeds
S&P Rating Upgrade Document
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3424453
@beatthestreet10
AUTO: Centre Proposes Lowering GST on 2-W & Small Cars – CNBCTV18
• Centre proposes lowering GST on 2-wheelers below 350cc to 18 % from current 28 %.
• Centre likely to propose 2 categories of GST rates for cars instead of varied rates.
• GST on small cars (below 1200cc) likely to be reduced to 18 % from 28 %.
• Hybrid passenger vehicles may also see GST lowered from 28 % to 18 %.
• All other categories – big, luxury & SUVs – likely to remain under the highest GST bracket.
@beatthestreet10
Anupam Rasayan – Jefferies Update
• Rating: Underperform
• Target Price: ↑₹625 from ₹520
• Q1 Review: Strong performance, but valuations appear stretched
• Business Highlights: Recovery in agchem; traction with new pharma molecules
• Guidance: Management expects 30 % FY26 growth, driven by exports and strong pharma/polymer performance
• Execution: Expected to reduce working capital from Q2
BPCL – Jefferies Update
• Rating: BUY
• Target Price: ↑₹400 from ₹370
• Earnings Support: Govt compensation for LPG losses should aid earnings and net debt
• Outlook: Strong earnings expected with range-bound crude due to OPEC supply
• Valuation: Most favourable compared to peers
• Recommendation: Preferred OMC pick
Citi on Vodafone Idea
BUY ( High Risk ) , Target Price 10
Q1: Subscriber Loss Narrows
Cash EBITDA was 7% below estimates
Capex was down 42% QoQ as the crucial debt raise continues to get delayed
AGR Relief Remains Key as End of Moratorium Nears
AVENDUS ON ASHOK LEYLAND
TP raised to ₹140 (vs ₹125); Add maintained
Target multiple raised to 10.5x FY27E EV/EBITDA, factoring in new cycle
Growth seen driven more by expansionary demand than replacement
Modeling low single-digit volume CAGR for MHCV & LCV over FY25-27E
Capex of ~2,000cr through FY27E, largely towards alternate fuels & EVs
MOSL ON DEEPAK NITRITE
TP at ₹1,630; Sell maintained
Phenolics & Intermediates facing margin headwinds
550cr merchant revenue expected from MIBK product
Capex for FY26 at ₹800-1,000cr
Peak debt projected at ₹7,000-7,500cr
Polycarbonate project: 5-5.5 year payback, 16-18% IRR
EPS cut by 9% for FY26; FY27 estimates largely maintained
Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT CAGR of 6%/14%/13% over FY25-27
MOSL ON ASHOK LEYLAND
TP at ₹141; Buy maintained
Improved mix driving margin expansion
MHCV industry to grow mid-single digits in FY26
LCV segment growth expected slightly higher
Defense business to see double-digit growth in FY26, sustain in FY27
Exports growth momentum to continue in coming coming quarters
Valuation: BUY at 11x Jun'27E EV/EBITDA + ~10/sh NBFC value
MS on Tata Chemical
Target Price: ₹1127
Rating: Overweight
Key Points:
The MD of Tata Chemicals was part of a recent investor roadshow in Singapore and Hong Kong.
Globally, except for China, Tata Chemicals anticipates a more balanced market despite softer demand in North America and Europe.
The company expects pricing to have hit its lowest point.
There is a strong emphasis on reducing debt rather than making large new investments.
Jefferies on Ashok Leyland
Target Price: ₹120
Previous Target: ₹115
Rating: Buy
Key Points:
Demand remains muted, but profit margins are healthy.
Jefferies appreciates the company’s focus on profitability, though the share is already trading at a 5.5x price-to-book ratio for FY26.
Stock valuations are expected to remain stable unless there is a pickup in demand for trucks.
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Aditya Birla Fashion
Target Price: ₹100
Rating: Buy
Key Points:
Strong performance in ethnic wear has helped counter losses from weak sales at Pantaloons.
A fund infusion into TMRW is likely to reduce the equity pressure on ABFRL.
Pantaloons’ underwhelming results were partly because of a shift in Eid festival timing.
Management stays optimistic about the trends during the festive period and expects growth in the second half of FY26, along with better profit margins.
UBS on Vodafone Idea
Neutral , Target Price 8.5
Q1FY26: Broadly in line
Market share loss slows but continues
Net loss was higher than estimate due to higher than expected interest charges
BofA on Ashok Leyland
Buy, Target Price 146
Resilient margin & improving truck cycle fundamentals keep us positive
Finally some greenshoots on truck cycle visible
FinCo gets RBI nod: One step forward on listing path
Nomura on M&M
Buy, Target Price ₹3736
Vision 2027 and NU_IQ platform unveiled
Paradigm shift in design and technology
M&M has once again set a new benchmark with its NE_IQ platform
Believe this launch strengthens M&M's position at the core of its brand identity
MS on Auto
BROKERAGE RADAR
GST Cuts Could Drive a Virtuous Upcycle
Looking at 2008: 4% excise duty, rate cuts and 6th pay commission drove 20% plus PV growth in 2009 and 2010
Autos fall under the 28% GST bracket, if autos move to 18% and we see sharp price drops, this could drive the next autos upcycle, as in 2008
There are unknowns, but looking at key factors we note that Maruti, M&M, Ashok Leyland and Eicher seem best placed
Citi India Strategy
BROKERAGE RADAR
Proposed GST rate rationalization would reduce prices of everyday items & durables, and boost festive demand and earnings outlook
Simplification of GST should ease the compliance burden, address inverted duty structures where applicable and reduce litigation
Should also increase competitiveness in the organized sector in some segments
Any acceleration in consumption demand could be medium-term positive for capacity utilization and industrial capex
Jefferies on GST
BROKERAGE RADAR
GST rate rationalization is expected Q4CY25
$20 bn savings on GST compensation provides the required fiscal space to rationalise the rate slabs
See a good chance that GST on Cement, 2-wheelers & Air Cons may go down to 18% (currently 28%)
Certain other potential reductions may include insurance, hybrid cars, processed foods, garments, footwear, etc
NDTV
MS India Strategy - Ridham Desai
BROKERAGE RADAR
Triggers in Place for New High
Improving growth prospects set the stage for a durable rally in Indian shares
Indian equities already have a strong fundamental case for re-rating
Recent developments provide triggers for this to happen sooner rather than later
GST reforms seem imminent with likely positive effects on growth and likely lower interest rates into 2026
NDTV
Jefferies Greed & Fear -Christopher Wood
BROKERAGE RADAR
Donald Trump has succeeded in bringing China, Russia, India and Brazil together like never before
China is buying more Russian oil than India but has not been similarly punished
Singling out of India in this fashion is not what most people would have predicted
GREED & fear would not view the previously discussed 50% tariff with the US as a reason to sell Indian equities
BofA on India Rating Upgrade
Ratings upgrade by S&P provides a sentiment boost
Market impact of the move could be limited for now
See tariff related uncertainty on growth still dominating the near term outlook
Impact on capital flows and credit costs may take a while to filter through
Continue to see downside risks to GDP growth from the lingering tariff uncertainty
Nomura on Glenmark Pharma
Neutral, TP Rs 1500
Rev & EBITDA missed est by 7% & 13%
Net earnings adversely impacted by exceptional charges of Rs 3.2bn related to settlement of price-fixing litigation
Adjusted for it, net profit 17% lower than est.
Rev for all segments, except US lower than est.
GS on USL
Buy, TP Rs 1575
1Q ahead of est. on topline
Muted vol growth adjusted for AP impact
Maharashtra excise duty hike headwinds; RBITDA margins to be range bound in FY26
UK FTA benefits likely in 1QFY27, growth & margins could both see tailwinds
Cut FY26-28 EPS est. by 2-4%
Kotak Securities on India Rating Upgrade
Rating upgrade driven by government's fiscal consolidation and sustained economic growth performance
Fiscal factors continued to be the weakest, and the upgrade was driven by a notch up on supplemental adjustments
Support from state finances along with continuance of the center's push on fiscal prudence will be the key for the next rating upgrade, possibly closer to the end of the decade
Citi on India Rating Upgrade
Earlier than expected upgrade reflects strong fiscal consolidation commitment
Market will now watch if the consolidation continues
Or whether in the short run, rating upgrade gives some breathing space to ease fiscal to support growth in a difficult global backdrop
A rating upgrade by just one agency may not immediately increase debt inflows
UBS on India Rating Upgrade
This upgrade moves the country one step away from the lowest investment grade rating
Upgrade benefits state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as well
Most Indian banks are also likely to be upgraded
Upgrades for privately-owned companies will be more mixed and limited to those previously capped by the sovereign rating
MORGAN STANLEY ON AUTOS
Autos Form 14% Of GST Collection & A Large Part Of The 28% Tax Basket
Assume 2Ws See A Straight GST Reduction From 28% To 18%
For PVs, Assume 28-31% GST Bracket Moves To 18% & Rest Move To 40% GST
In 2-wheelers, See Hero & Eicher Gaining The Most
In PVs See Maruti & M&M Benefiting The Most
JPMorgan on India Rating Upgrade
View this rating upgrade as unambiguously positive
This should boost sentiment and potentially lower risk premia and borrowing costs in the economy
Importantly, S&P believes that the 50% tariff (if imposed) would not significantly impact India's growth prospects
MCX :
MCX to launch Nickel Futures contract on August 18, 2025
ACC , AMBUJA:
Assam govt allots 990 acres in Dima Hasao to Adani Group for a mega cement plant;
sparks row over tribal rights & Sixth Schedule violations as protests erupt despite promises of jobs & infra boost
EMKAY ON GST
Policy intent to move GST to a two-tier structure seen as positive
GST changes may cause govt. revenue loss of ~0.4% of GDP annually; states to face higher burden
If implemented from Oct-25, Centre's FY26 net fiscal slippage estimated at ~0.2% of GDP
States' effective losses could reach ~0.3% of GDP annually
CPI inflation may ease ~50-60 bps over a year
Tax cuts expected to aid consumption in autos, durables, cement, and allied sectors
Any cutbacks in capex or social/rural schemes could cap demand gains
KOTAK ON GST
Govt's GST rationalization plan may boost demand for select consumption items with limited fiscal cost
Demand/profitability impact hinges on extent of pass-through by companies
Past tax cuts to spur demand/investment have yielded limited results
New GST rates may provide a 2.4 tn boost, largely benefiting autos & durables
Cement sector may gain less due to low price elasticity
GST Act mandates full pass-through of lower rates to consumers ho
Companies may hike prices ahead of GST cuts in 2HFY26 or aggressively in FY2027
Fiscal impact may be offset via compensation cess, surplus OMC margins (via excise duty), and reallocations from schemes (e.g. R&D, Al)
JEFFERIES ON MAX HEALTHCARE (CMP: 1,216.10)
MAINTAIN BUY
TARGET: ₹1,500
Co's Q1 Was A Mixed Bag: Revenue Was A Beat, Adj. EBITDA In-line & PAT A Miss
Like-to-like Sales Grew 16% With Headline Occupancy Numbers Growing 10% YoY
Max Is On-track To Add 1,500 Capacity Beds During FY26 With 800 Coming Online From Q2
New Beds Will Be Operationalised In Phases, Thereby Limiting Negative Impact On Margin
JAN VISHWAS BILL 2.0
Govt to introduce Jan Vishwas (Amendment) Bill, 2025 in Lok Sabha today
Bill to further boost ease of doing business and ease of living
To amend several enactments, decriminalise & rationalise offences
Over 300 minor offences set to be decriminalised under Jan Vishwas 2.0: Sources
First offences: no penalty, only improvement notice: Sources
ANTIQUE ON GST
GST rate rationalization may impact 5-6% of GST collections (₹1.2-1.5 trn or 0.3-0.4% of GDP annually)
Fiscal slippage risk rises amid weak direct tax collections
Reform expected to aid selective consumption categories
Combined with other tailwinds, GST ☐ changes could fuel H2 recovery, boosted by festive demand
MOSL ON GST
Second-gen GST reforms target easing household tax burden and boosting consumption
Proposal: Merge most goods into 5% & 18% slabs, replacing 5%/12%/18%/28% structure
~99% of goods in the 12% slab expected to move to 5%, cutting retail prices by ~4-5%
Household budgets to ease; Finance Ministry pegs revenue impact at ~₹50,000 cr (manageable)
Key beneficiary sectors: Consumer Staples, Autos (4W), Cement, Hotels (<₹7,500), Retail (footwear), Durables (ACs), Logistics, Quick Commerce, EMS
Key stock picks: HUVR, Britannia, Maruti, Ashok Leyland, Ultratech, Voltas, Amber, Delhivery, Lemon Tree, Swiggy, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance

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