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August 13, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 13th August 2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24487.40 FII -3398.80 cr DII 3507.93 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour was in line with expectations. Nifty opened by defending the 24530 support and rallied to our resistance of 24695 (high of 24702.6) but failed to sustain and slipped towards our support of 24475, making a low of 24465.65.
A bearish candle with an upper shadow indicates selling pressure at higher levels.
A decisive breakdown below 24432 may lead to a fall towards 24377–24321, with further downside risk to 24266 if selling intensifies.
On the upside, 24543–24600 may act as immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above these levels could push Nifty towards 24653–24710.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 55043.70 PCR: 0.70 Max CE OI: 57000 Max PE OI: 57000
On 12th August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 55043.70, down 467.05 points (-0.84%), with an intraday movement of 565.20 points. The index recorded a high of 55566.70 and a low of 55001.50.
Technical View:
Key support lies in the 54820–54780 zone, while the next resistance is seen near 55900. Intraday support is placed at 54890 and resistance at 55200.
Intraday Technical Strategy:
Go long above 55200 with a stop loss at 55150 and a target of 55350.
Go short below 54890 with a stop loss at 54940 and a target of 54732.
Indicator Watch:
RSI for Bank Nifty stands at 37.10; levels below 30 are considered oversold and above 70 overbought.
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 3 out of 8 SMA’s (100, 150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 5 out of 8 SMA’s. (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 Day)
No active candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
Macros:
1. Dollar index @ 97.94
2. S&P 500 Vix @ 14.76 (-9.11)
3. Brent Crude @ 66.14 (-0.74%)
4. US 10 years bond yield @ 4.293
Note:
The latest employment report confirmed signs of fragility and reduced dynamism in the U.S. labor market. The July jobs data, which reportedly led President Donald Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over claims it was “rigged,” is being viewed by Federal Reserve officials as serious evidence of a slowing economy and as justification for the interest rate cuts Trump has been advocating.
Following the weak July report and sharp downward revisions to June and May figures, market bets now indicate around a 90% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. Analysts suggest that this CPI reading strongly supports such a move, and if the August jobs report (due on 5th September) mirrors July’s weakness, a 50-basis-point reduction cannot be ruled out.
For Indian markets, the 27th August deadline will be crucial, along with the outcome of the Russia–US meeting scheduled for Friday. Any positive developments from this meeting could potentially lead to a rollback of the proposed 25% tariff before the 27th. Market participants should remain cautious and closely monitor these developments.
_________________________________
Data watch
1.Fiis net long 7.9 % (Highly oversold).
2.Fiis sold 3398.80 cr in cash segment, Sold 1025.08 cr in index and 452.49 in stock fut
3.Vix @ 12.03 ( +2.23%)
4.Pcr @ 0.64 (weekly) , 0.95 (monthly)
Note:
FIIs net long position is @ 7.9 (highly over sold zone) , Vix is @ 12.03 (+2.23%) again I will not change my view lower fiis net long & Vix not getting elevated rapidly is indicating index will again attempt to cover some shorts.
As far as figures are concerned ant dips around 24377-24321 will be buying zone for upside movement upto 24543 or if nifty able to break above 24550 is taken out nifty will go up to 24600-24650 .
If lower Vix & Highly over over sold fiis net long & PCR position is any indication some shorts may get cover, follow Index review for the same .
We need to observe certain data, Fiis net long as well as Vix if that does not increase (+2.91%) and nay reduction in fiis net long will trigger short covering.
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Morgan Stanley on JSPL
Maintain Equal-weight | TP ₹950
EBITDA 16% ahead of consensus, driven by better realizations & lower RM costs
Angul project commissioning in final stages; production to start in a month
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Dr Agarwal
Maintain Hold | TP ↑ ₹430 from ₹380
In-line Q1; decent print
Aggressive expansion plans in India
On track to meet FY26 guidance; valuations punchy
@beatthestreet10
Morgan Stanley on Nykaa
Maintain Overweight | TP ₹225
In-line margins; Beauty growth on track
Focus on penetration and premiumization
Fashion EBITDA break-even targeted in FY26
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Honasa Consumer
Maintain Buy | TP ₹400
Positive margin surprise despite modest 7% revenue growth (impacted by unseasonal rains)
Sequential improvement in EBITDA margin
New brands growing; Mamaearth yet to recover
@beatthestreet10
Macquarie on Hindalco
Maintain Outperform | TP ₹709
EBITDA miss due to lower aluminium price, partly offset by better copper EBITDA
Downstream focus; upstream expansion likely by FY28
Earnings risk from tariff-led demand and cost pressures
@beatthestreet10
Morgan Stanley on HAL
Maintain Equal-weight | TP ₹5092
Q1 beat with higher gross margin (68%) and lower provisions
PAT beat supported by higher other income
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Aavas Financiers
Maintain Buy | TP ↓ ₹2175 from ₹2280
Q1 profit miss; loan growth pickup key
Disbursement down 5% YoY due to recognition policy change; normalization expected in Q2
EPS growth expected at 18% CAGR
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Zydus Life
Maintain Buy | TP ₹1150
Strong Q1 beat on growth in US & international markets
Controlled opex led to margin beat
FY26 guidance maintained; sustainable growth expected
@beatthestreet10
Jefferies on Belrise
Maintain Buy | TP ↑ ₹160 from ₹135
Good Q1 growth
Expect 12% EBITDA and 18% EPS CAGR over FY25-28
Positive on rising 2W demand, premiumization, exports, and deleveraging
Attractive valuation with room for multiple expansion
@beatthestreet10
Investec on Suzlon
Maintain Buy | TP ₹70
Strong execution; order book at all-time high
Net cash positive with strong RoE/RoCE
Positioned for 49%/26% revenue/PAT CAGR over FY25-27
@beatthestreet10
Nuvama on Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)
Maintain Buy | TP ₹6,000
• Strong start with robust growth pipeline
• Order book of ~₹1.84 trillion at end-Mar’25, 6.1x FY25 sales
• Pipeline over ₹4.6 trillion in next 7-8 years
• Revenue CAGR ~21% expected over FY25-28E
• Planned capex ₹15,000 Cr over 4-5 years with working capital build-up
• EPS CAGR projected at ~11%
@beatthestreet10
MOSL on Bharat Dynamics (BDL)
Upgraded to Buy | TP ₹1,900
• Valuations now reasonable
• Strong order book of ₹23,300 Cr; execution to ramp up in coming quarters
• Large prospect pipeline of ₹50,000 Cr driving future growth
• Estimates maintained; execution & margins expected to improve
• Revenue/EBITDA to grow at 35%/64% CAGR over FY25-28
• EBITDA margin forecast: 23.8% (FY26), 24.7% (FY27), 25.5% (FY28)
• Trades at 39x (FY27E) and 29x (FY28E) EPS
@beatthestreet10
MOSL on Bharat Dynamics (BDL)
MOSL upgrades Bharat Dynamics (BDL) to Buy from Neutral; TP ₹1,900
Valuations now seen as reasonable
Strong order book of ₹23,300cr; execution expected to ramp up in coming quarters
Large prospect pipeline of ₹50,000cr to drive future growth
Estimates maintained; expect execution & margins to improve ahead
Revenue/EBITDA projected to grow at 35%/64% CAGR over FY25-28
EBITDA margin forecast at 23.8% (FY26), 24.7% (FY27), 25.5% (FY28)
Stock trades at 39x (FY27E) and 29x (FY28E) EPS
@beatthestreet10
Trump on Tariffs & Goldman Sachs
• Tariffs have not caused inflation — says Trump (ET NOW)
• Accuses Goldman Sachs of refusing to give credit where due
• Claims consumers aren’t even paying these tariffs
• Says Goldman Sachs and CEO David Solomon are wrong about tariff impacts on markets
• Adds David Solomon “shouldn’t bother running a bank”
@beatthestreet10
Avendus on Hindalco
Avendus maintains Sell on Hindalco; raises TP to ₹615 from ₹600
Novelis margin outlook remains challenging
Current margins likely at peak; aluminium prices could correct 10-15%
Expect softening Chinese and global aluminium demand with limited supply to balance market over next 12 months
Values Novelis/India operations at 6x/5x FY27E EV/EBITDA
Sell rating maintained
@beatthestreet10
MOSL on Hindalco
MOSL maintains Buy on Hindalco; target price ₹790
Strong Indian business performance driving overall earnings
Novelis EBITDA expected to rebound in 2H
Robust domestic earnings to offset muted Novelis profitability in FY26
Bay Minette commissioning to cut import dependency and free US capacities for high-margin products
Stock trades at 5.3x EV/EBITDA and 1.2x P/B on FY27E
Estimates largely unchanged; Buy rating reiterated
@beatthestreet10
PI Industries Q1
Q1 performance broadly in line with plan; company expects acceleration in H2
Growth outlook remains positive
Multiple levers in motion to sustain long-term growth momentum
Targeting single-digit revenue growth for FY26 with sustained margins (maintained guidance)
@beatthestreet10
Citi on Apollo Hospitals
Maintain Buy | TP ₹8,260
Q1 ahead; margin expansion in HealthCo and Hospitals
Solid growth and margin expansion in HealthCo
Hospitals business witnessed margin expansion despite decline in Bangladesh patients
HealthCo turned PAT positive in Q1
@beatthestreet10
Citi on Paytm
Maintain Buy | TP ₹1,215
RBI grants Payment Aggregator license
Removes major pending regulatory restriction
Paytm can leverage scale and product development to be more competitive in the segment
@beatthestreet10
MOSL on Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)
Maintain Buy | TP ₹5,800 (raised from ₹5,750)
Engine supplies from GE for Tejas Mk1A ramping up
Aircraft deliveries expected to accelerate in coming quarters
Growth catalysts: Tejas deliveries + finalization of orders for 97 Tejas Mk1A units
Revenue projected to grow at 24% CAGR over FY25-28
EBITDA margin forecast: 29.8% (FY26), 28.6% (FY27), 27.3% (FY28)
Annual capex planned: ₹4,000cr (FY26), ₹5,000cr (FY27), ₹6,000cr (FY28)
PAT expected to grow at 17% CAGR over FY25-28
RoE/ROCE seen at 22.2%/22.6% by FY28
@beatthestreet10
Nuvama on Bharat Dynamics (BDL)
Nuvama maintains Buy on Bharat Dynamics; TP ₹2,250
Projects ~51% revenue CAGR and 66% EPS CAGR over FY25-28E
Operating margin (OPM) expected at 23-23.5%, benefiting from easing of supply constraints in critical imports
Assigns 45x target P/E on FY27E EPS of ₹50.1
Supply chain disruptions from dependence on war nations now easing
Strong positioning to deliver robust growth momentum ahead
@beatthestreet10
Nuvama on Titagarh
Nuvama maintains Buy on Titagarh; TP revised to ₹1,142 from ₹1,292
Quarter impacted by wheelset availability issues, hampering wagon production
Management expects Indian Railways to issue a new wagon tender in Q4FY26E / early FY27E
Wheelset shortages and muted wagon tendering prompt FY26E/FY27E EPS cuts of 12%/14%
TP cut as valuation rolled forward to Q1FY28E at 35x EPS
@beatthestreet10
Goldiam International launches QIP with floor price of 346 per share
@beatthestreet10
*Goldiam Intl Big Move*
Raising ~₹250 Cr fresh funds to turbocharge ORIGEM – 6 COCO stores in Mumbai today, 25 new in FY26, 250+ by FY28.
Lab-grown diamond retail = high margins + explosive growth.
Hearing a big retail player could acquire majority stake– just like Titan’s CaratLane jackpot.
Massive re-rating potential – Available at just 17x PE, this could be the next big retail jewellery story.
@beatthestreet10
SpiceJet to induct 10 Boeing 737s by Oct 2025 for peak winter and early summer demand
@beatthestreet10
SYRMA SGS: Syrma SGS has raised around ₹1,000 crore through a QIP, issuing 1.43 crore equity shares to QIBs at ₹699 per share, about 5% below the floor price.
The funds will be used for growth and strategic purposes.
The company’s paid-up capital has increased from ₹178.16 crore to ₹192.46 crore.
@beatthestreet10

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