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February 13, 2025

Kotak Bank in focus
https://t.me/BeatTheStreet10
RBI lifts embargo on Kotak Bank for issuing new credit cards and onboarding customer's via online and mobile banking modes
https://t.me/BeatTheStreet10
Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
Intense Selling Pauses – Rebound or Just a Breather?
1. Global Market:
On Wednesday, all three major U.S. indices saw a sharp decline in the first half of the session but staged a strong recovery later. By the close, the Nasdaq managed to edge up 0.12%, while the Dow and S&P 500 ended lower by 0.50% and 0.27%, respectively. The initial sell-off on Wall Street was triggered by a Labor Department report revealing that U.S. consumer prices in January rose more than expected.
Going ahead, for the S&P 500, the zone of 6000-5980 will act as immediate support. While 6120-6140 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
After registering the high of $77.03, the #BrentOil has witnessed a sharp correction, and it has ended at $74.77 level with a loss of 2.39 percent. Going ahead, the zone of $74-73.80 will act as immediate support.
The U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) has been oscillating in the zone of 108.52-107.29 levels for the last six trading sessions. Going ahead, the zone of 108.80-109 will be the crucial hurdle for the index. On the downside, the zone of 107.50-107.30 will act as immediate support for the index.
2. Nifty View:
From the recent swing high of 23807, the index has tumbled by over 1000 points in just six trading sessions, signaling intense selling pressure. However, on Wednesday, it found support near the previous swing low and staged a modest rebound.
This led to the formation of a Dragonfly Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily chart, often seen as an early sign of potential trend reversal. The long lower shadow indicates buying interest at lower levels, but a decisive follow-through move is crucial to confirm a shift in momentum.
Going ahead, the zone of 23150-23180 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. If the index surges above the level of 23180, then we may witness a sharp pullback rally upto the 20-day EMA level, which is currently placed at the 23367 level, followed by the 23500 level.
While, on the downside, the zone of 22800-22750 will act as crucial support for the index as a prior swing low is placed in that region. If the index slips below the level of 22750, then we may witness further selling pressure upto the 22500 level.
On the #derivatives front, February #futures dipped by 0.13 percent, while the combined #OpenInterest for the current, next, and far series surged by 2.73 percent, which indicates a short build up.
Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 15 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 11 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While 15 stocks have witnessed a short build-up, 9 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
The 23100 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 23200 strike. On the put side, 23000 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 22900 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.64. While for the February monthly series, OI PCR is at 0.92.
Bank Nifty has been exhibiting strong outperformance compared to the frontline indices over the past few trading sessions. On Wednesday, it marked the low of 48734 and thereafter witnessed a recovery of nearly 750 points. Going ahead, the zone of 49700-49800 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. While, on the downside, the zone of 49000-48900 will act as crucial support for the index.
3. Sensex View:
The benchmark index #Sensex also witnessed a sharp recovery after testing the low of 75388 level. This resulted in the formation of a Dragonfly Doji-like candlestick pattern on a daily scale.
Going ahead, the zone of 76600-76700 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. While on the downside, the zone of 75700-75600 will act as immediate support for the index.
On the #derivative front, weekly #futures dipped by 0.24 percent, and the #OpenInterest of the current series has surged by 7.62 percent.
The 76500 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 77000 strike. On the put side, 76000 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 75500 strike.
For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.79.
4. Key Market Indicators:
The volatility index, India VIX, ended on a positive note for the third consecutive trading session. From the recent low of 13.15, it has surged by over 13 percent in just five trading sessions, which indicates that overall market volatility has increased. Going ahead, the zone of 15-15.20 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index.
The #Advance/Decline ratio tilted in favor of decliners.
5. Key Sectors:
Technically, Nifty Consumer Durable, FMCG, Media, Healthcare, Pharma, PSU Bank, Realty, Oil & Gas, CPSE, and PSE space are likely to underperform the frontline indices.
6. FII/DII Data:
#FIIs sold to the tune of 4969.30. cr while #DIIs bought to the tune of 5929.24 cr.
FIIs' Long short ratio for index futures is at 15.11 as on a net basis, they bought 2373 index futures.
On the stock #futures front, FIIs have sold to the tune of 52238 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs bought 13078 call contracts and bought 15000 Put Option contracts.
Fund Houses Recommendations
Macquarie on Chalet: Initiate Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 1100/Sh (Positive)
Macquarie on Lemon Tree: Initiate Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 210/Sh (Positive)
Macquarie on SBI Cards: Upgrade to Outperform on Company, raise target price at Rs 1000/Sh (Positive)
Macquarie on PFC: Maintain Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 660/Sh (Positive)
UBS on PFC: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 600/Sh (Positive)
Bernstein on Muthoot FIn: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 2500/Sh (Positive)
Citi on Kotak Bank: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 2070/Sh (Positive)
HSBC on Kotak Bank: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 2210/Sh (Positive)
MS on Kotak Bank: Maintain Overweight on Bank, target price at Rs 2290/Sh (Positive)
Citi on Ashok Ley: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 270/Sh (Positive)
GS on Ashok Ley: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 280/Sh (Positive)
Jefferies on Jubilant Food: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1000/Sh (Positive)
MS on Jubilant Food: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 781/Sh (Positive)
MS on CG Consumer: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 402/Sh (Positive)
Morgan Stanley on ICICI Pru AMC listing: Prudential is evaluating a potential listing of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited, involving the partial divestment of its shares (Neutral)
Citi on Vodafone Idea: Maintain Buy on Company, cut target price at Rs 12/Sh (Neutral)
Citi on Bharat Forge: Maintain Sell on Company, target price at Rs 920/Sh (Neutral)
UBS on Siemens: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 8000/Sh (Neutral)
CLSA on Jubilant Food: Maintain Underperform on Company, target price at Rs 450/Sh (Neutral)
Macquarie on Ashok Ley: Maintain Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 226/Sh (Neutral)
MS on HAL: Maintain Overweight on Company, cut target price at Rs 4958/Sh (Neutral)
Zelenskiy: Had meaningful call with Trump, discussing peace opportunities.
PM Modi arrives on an official working visit to Washington, DC.
During the visit, PM will meet US President Donald Trump, members of the US Cabinet and industry leaders
JEFFERIES ON JUBILANT FOODWORKS
Maintain Buy, target price ₹1000
Top consumer discretionary pick
India's SSSG rose in double digit with management focus on growth
Concall focused on new launches, faster delivery and targeted discounting
SSSG momentum continues strong in January
Management targets improving gross margins by 100bps over next 2-3 quarter
MUTHOOT FINANCE Q3 ; AUM at Rs97487 cr, up 8.1% QOQ (YOY, 37 qtr high AUM growth)
Gold AUM at Rs 92964 cr, up 7.9%QOQ
Gold kept as security at 202 tonnes, up 1.5%QOQ
Gold customer base growth at 1.8%QOQ
MUTHOOT FINANCE Q3 HIGHLIGHTS
GNPA ratio at 4.22% vs 4.3% QOQ
NNPA ratio at 2.66% vs 2.82% QOQ
Actual GROSS Npa Up 6 % To Rs 4117 Cr QOQ
Net Npa Up 2 % To 2596 Cr QOQ
NIM at 11.6% vs 11.54% QOQ
ROA at 5.81% vs 5.74% QOQ
ROE at 20.7% vs 19.99% QOQ
BHARAT FORGE Q3 HIGHLIGHTS
Q3 FY25 revenue at ₹20,959M declined due to weak EU demand and lower defense sales.
EBITDA margin held at 28.1% on a favorable mix.
PBT (before FX impact) at ₹4,530M, down 11.3% QoQ.
INDIA BIZ ; Automotive: CV demand slowed in 9M FY25 due to a high base and lower capex, but long-term outlook remains strong. PVs saw sharp YoY recovery; focus on partnerships for premium, safer vehicles.
Industrials: Q3 revenue at ₹5,126M, down due to lower defense sales. Despite slower capex, nuclear and space sectors offer long-term growth opportunities.
BHARAT FORGE Q3 HIGHLIGHTS
EXPORT BIZ ; Automotive: Export CV business steady; North America ( NA) stable, but EU and Asia weak. NA outlook improving, while EU remains uncertain. PV exports hit by weak EU recovery but supported by new orders.
Industrials: Growth across all verticals due to diversification. Aerospace set for strong traction in coming years.
Management Says Q3 FY25 revenue at ₹3,476 Cr (-10%), EBITDA at ₹638 Cr (-5%), hit by weak EU demand and defense business timing. Bharat Forge secured ₹830 Cr in new orders. Defense revenue at ₹337 Cr, with a ₹5,706 Cr order book.
On Aerospace: Investing in a machining line and ring mill for jet engine components, operational by FY27. Strong growth expected in 3-4 years.
On JS Auto: Q3 revenue up 20% to ₹166 Cr, EBITDA up 24% to ₹23 Cr. 9M FY25 orders at ₹183 Cr. Targeting ₹1,000 Cr revenue in 2-3 years.
BHARAT FORGE OUTLOOK; Looking ahead into Q4 FY25 & FY26, we expect the consolidated performance to be stable, as pockets of strength emerge from the newer businesses to offset the slowdown in the automotive sector globally.
We will undertake a thorough review of our manufacturing footprint of our overseas business with an endeavor to achieve operational stability in this challenging environment.
ENGINEERS INDIA ; BAGS RS 106 CR ORDER
ENGINEERS INDIA; IOCL awarded EIL a ₹106 Cr contract for Phase-I MPMC and PMC-2 services at Paradip Petrochemical Complex, Odisha.
JANA SFB , CREDITACCESS GRAMEEN, UJJIVAN SFB, EQITAS SFB ; Karnataka Govt Signs ordinance to prevent harassment of borrowers by microfin co u/pretext of debt collection
May lead to potential delay in recoveries
Delay in recoveries can keep stress elevated for lenders
Ashok LEYLAND Management Says There Have been Some Delays In The Listing Of Hinduja Leyland Finance
Hopeful Of Listing Hinduja Leyland finance In Q1FY26
We Have Currently Orders Of More Than 1,800 Units For Switch Mobility
Confident & Optimistic About Growth Prospect Of Switch India
Money Will Be used For Growth & Also To Pare The Debt
Target Is To Become Positive At EBITDA Level For Switch India In 2-3 Qtrs - CNBCTV18
Morgan Stanley on Jubilant Food
Maintain Overweight with target price of Rs 781
Q3F25: Margin miss; company confident of growth "delivery"
Delivery's share of revenues rose to its highest level ever, at 71.4%
REPCO HOME Q3 HIGHLIGHTS.
Operating profits at Rs144.3 cr, up 5.5%QOQ
Provisions at Rs0.3 cr vs write back of Rs16cr QOQ
GNPA at Rs545.8 cr vs Rs552.4 crQOQ
NNPA at Rs208.6 cr vs Rs217 crQOQ
GNPA ratio at 3.86% vs 3.96% QOQ
NNPA ratio at 1.5% vs 1.6% QOQ
ROA at 3.1% vs 3.3% QOQ
NIM at 5.5% vs 5.1% QOQ
Disbursals at Rs761.3 cr, down 12.2% QOQ
Sanctions at Rs806.4cr, down 12.95%QOQ
AUM Rs14155.1 cr, up 1.37%QOQ
IIFL FINANCE Q3 HIGHLIGHTS
GNPA ratio at 2.42% vs 2.35%
NNPA ratio at 1% vs 1.1%
Operating profits at Rs534.3 cr, down 27%QOQ
AUM at Rs71410cr, Up 6.64%QOQ
Calculated NIM at 5.3% vs 5.95% QOQ
ROA at 0.6% vs -0.7% QOQ
Jefferies on Honasa Consumer
Maintain Buy; Cut target price to Rs 320 from Rs 360
In line revenues with slight EBITDA beat
Mamaearth brand continued to decline while younger brands grew 30%+
ICICI SEC ON PREMIER ENERGIES
Initiates coverage With BUY rating and TP of Rs.1,228/sh
Premier to expand capacity to 7GW/8GW in two years, driving 90% CAGR earnings growth (FY24–27E).
Govt support helps fend off Chinese competition.
New barriers to restrict market to Indian manufacturers after Jun’26.
Export opportunities, especially in the US, boosting Indian manufacturers.
Brent dropped below $75 per barrel after falling 2.4% on Wednesday.
STEEL STOCKS ; Steel Minister Says India could impose a temporary tax of 15%-25% on steel from China in as soon as six months because of the "serious challenge" to domestic producers from cheap imports
ASM TECH Q3 :CONS NET PROFIT OF 4 CR V 0.2 CR LOSS (YOY), UP 29 % (QOQ)
REVENUE UP 16 % AT 64.7 CR (YOY) ,UP 14 % (QOQ)
EBITDA UP 2850 % AT 11.8 CR (YOY),UP 79 %(QOQ)
MARGINS AT 18.2 % V 0.7 % (YOY), 11.6 % (QOQ)
If Q4 turns out as expected, we should end FY25 with more or less flat vs FY24, January is already behind us & we have seen 4-5% growth
Shenu Agarwal, Ashok Leyland to CNBC-TV18
ASM TECH ; ASM Technologies signs MoU with Karnataka govt to invest Rs. 510 crores in expanding ESDM and precision engineering capacity.
The company will acquire 10 acres from KIADB for a new design facility.
L&T TECH : Altair and LTTS Launch 5G-6G Wireless Center of Excellence to advance connectivity, accelerate innovation for Clients in Tech, Mobility
CoE to Provide Leading 5G/6G Capabilities for Altair and LTTS Clients in Telecom, Smart Factories, Connected Vehicles and Healthcare
GODAVARI POWER ; Due to current market conditions, the Board has approved the cancellation of the 2-million-ton Integrated Steel Plant at Sarora, Chhattisgarh, and the OPVC Pipes project in Raipur. A revised plan for a smaller Integrated Steel Plant is being developed and will be announced soon.
Board Approved Proposal for setting up of 25 MW Additional Solar Power Plant for meeting power requirement for iron ore beneficiation plant at Ari Dongri Iron Ore mines, at an estimated cost of Rs. 75 crores
GODAVARI POWER Q3 :CONS NET PROFIT DOWN 37 % AT 144 CR (YOY), DOWN 9 % (QOQ)
REVENUE DOWN 1% AT 1297 CR (YOY) ,UP 2 % (QOQ)
EBITDA DOWN 33 % AT 220 CR (YOY),DOWN 11%(QOQ)
MARGINS AT 17 % V 25.2 % (YOY), 19.5 % (QOQ)
KOTAK BANK + 1.3 %
NIFTY TO OPEN FLAT
BOROSIL RENEWABLES: DGTR recommends final ADD and CVD; Duties has been already imposed On Solar Glass
Had imposed earlier ADD and CVD – preliminary findings....now final recommendation for 5 years imposition
LUPIN - CONCALL UPDATE
CO SAYS ON A QUARTER-ON-QUARTER BASIS, EBITDA MARGINS HAVE EXPANDED BY 51 BASIS POINTS. THE COMPANY AIMS FOR AN OVERALL MARGIN RANGE OF 22.5% TO 23.5% FOR THE NEXT FISCAL YEAR - CONCALL UPDATE
CO HAS A STRONG PIPELINE WITH OVER 20 RESPIRATORY PRODUCTS AND 40 INJECTABLE PRODUCTS IN DEVELOPMENT
LUPIN - CONCALL UPDATE
CO BELIEVES IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DELIVER EBITDA MARGINS IN THE REGION OF 23% AND 23.5% RANGE IN FY25 || CO EXPECTS THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE (ETR) TO BE ABOUT 20% TO 21% FOR THE FULL YEAR
CO EXPECTS A STRONGER TAIL FOR A SPECIALTY PRODUCT, WHICH SHOULD BE MEANINGFUL IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FISCAL YEAR AND INTO FISCAL YEAR '27 || CO'S MARGINS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE ACHIEVED IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, DESPITE HIGHER INVESTMENTS IN R&D DURING THE PERIOD
Rupee Opens At 86.80/$ Vs
Wednesday’s Close Of 86.89/$
BOFA SEC Says Still Not Changing Our Bearish View, Expect Single digit Return In 2025
Bofa Says Consensus Is Still Cutting Earnings Estimates Across Capex Sectors
Hard To Justify Valn Higher Than Long-term Avgs When India Is In A Cyclical Downturn
Have Been Able To Upgrade Only 1 Stock In Industrials/Capex Sectors
BOFA Says Downgraded 13 Out Of The 14 Industrial Stocks In Aug 2024
Hard To Justify Valn Higher Than Long-term Avgs When India Is In A Cyclical Downturn
Bearish On Capex Cycle theme ,like Cement , steel , Energy, power utility
Mid & Small Caps Continue To Remain Expensive
BOFA Says Downgraded 13 Out Of The 14 Industrial Stocks In Aug 2024
Hard To Justify Valn Higher Than Long-term Avgs When India Is In A Cyclical Downturn
Bearish On Capex Cycle theme ,like Cement , steel , Energy, power utility
Mid & Small Caps Continue To Remain Expensive
REASON FOR SELL OFF IN INDIAN MARKET
VALUATION TOO HIGH , DISCOUNTING NEXT YEARS EARNINGS
BUT EARNINGS DISAPPOINTMENT LED TO EARNING EXPECTATIONS CUT
NOTE ; MANY CO.S MANAGEMENT CUT THIER FY25 GUIDANCE
ADD : U.S TRADE WAR SITUATION TO THIS
ADANI PORTS: Adani Group has signed an around A$330 million ($207 million) private credit loan for its coal port unit located in Australia’s Northern Queensland - Bloomberg
RBI keen on getting growth back on track. Lot of action in 2 weeks
-liquidity infusion of 1.5 lac cr
-rate cut 25 bps
-additional OMO of 20k cr
-deferred LCR guidelines by a yr
-removin restrictions on Kotak
With retail inflation falling to 4.3%, expect another rate cut.
Butterfly should start growing double-digit next year onwards, expect 9-10% EBITDA margin going forward
Solar pumps orderbook is seeing strong growth
Kaleeswaran Arunachalam, Crompton to CNBC-TV18
Bharat Forge Chairman Says Q3 was Difficult Quarters due To slowdown in Western Europe , Transportation Issue , Co.s Execution
Q4 will be better Than Q3
On U.s Tariffs, We Are In Wait & Watch Mode, Will See How The Situation Unfolds
CG CONSUMER Says Expect kitchen biz to lead the growth this Diwali, market share in fans stands at 25% - CNBCTV18
See good growth in table, pedestal & wall fans segment
Butterfly should start growing double-digit next year onwards, expect 9-10% EBITDA margin going forward
Solar pumps orderbook is seeing strong growth
ADANI ENT ; Adani Group to double ammunition production capacity amid strong global demand - ET
BSE ; National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) diversifies beyond agri, enters equity & derivatives with Rs 400-600 crore investment
The exchange plans to invest an estimated Rs 400-600 crore in this expansion
MUTHOOT FINANCE Says Quarter 4 Will Also Be A Very Good Quarter For Us
Thrust On Marketing And Expansion Of Branches Aided In New Customer Acquisition
India Has 25,000 Tonne Of Dead Gold - CNBCTV18
CARYSIL Q3 ; Management Says "Our 9MFY25 income rose 24% to Rs 614.9 cr, driven by growth in quartz sinks and strong UAE subsidiary performance.
Q3FY25 income was Rs 205.5 cr, slightly lower due to the holiday season and weak steel sink sales.
Higher material costs, export freight, marketing expenses, and a GBP/INR exchange loss impacted Q3 operating EBITDA.
However, the reduction in material costs, export freight, and GBP depreciation should improve results next quarter.
Strong demand is seen in our steel sink business, with growing interest from existing and new clients for future growth."
DHABRIYA POLYWOOD: WINS RS 3.98 CR ORDER

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