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September 12, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 12.09.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25005.50 FII -3472.37 cr DII 4045.54 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines as the uptrend took Nifty up to 25037.3.
A small bullish candle on the daily chart indicates continuation of momentum. On a decisive breakout above 25050, Nifty may rally to 25095–25140. If demand persists, it could test 25183.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 24961–24917. A break below may drag Nifty towards 24873–24828.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 54669.60 Pcr: 1.01 Max CE OI: 57000 Max PE OI: 54000
On September 12th, 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 54669.60 (+133.60 / 0.24%). The index moved 133.60 points during the session, making a high of 54757.45 and a low of 54669.60.
Technical View
Key support and resistance: 53870 and 55000
Intraday support and resistance: 54570 and 54770
Intraday Strategy
Go long above 54770 with SL 54730, target 54865
Go short below 54570 with SL 54604, target 54474
RSI stands at 47.40 (below 30 oversold, above 70 overbought).
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 5 out of 8 SMA’s (5, 10, 20,150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 3 out of 8 SMA’s. (30, 50,100 Day)
One bullish single candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Belt Hold Uptrend
Macros:
1.Dollar index @ 97.557
2.Vix @ 14.95 (-0.41%)
3.Brent crude @ 66.41
4.U.S. 10 years bond yield @ 4.003
Note:
The benchmark indices hit fresh all-time highs, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record peaks on rising expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
U.S. CPI for August came in at 2.9% y-o-y (vs. 2.7% in July), in line with forecasts, while m-o-m inflation stood at 0.4% (vs. 0.2% in July and above 0.3% forecast). Jobless claims also rose sharply, signaling further softening in the labor market.
The data reinforced expectations of the Fed beginning its rate-cut cycle, likely with a 25 bps cut at the September 17 meeting. CME Fed Watch now shows 88.8% expecting a cut, with some voices calling for a larger 50 bps reduction.
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Data watch
1.Fiis net long 10.77 % (Highly oversold).
2.Fiis sold -3472.37 cr in cash segment, added 635 cr in index and bought 2775 in stock future
3.Vix @ 10.36 (-1.71%)
4.Pcr @ 1.15 (Weekly) , 1.10 (Monthly)
OI position of institutions & retail
Fiis added 1195 contracts on long side and sold 2145 contracts on short side. Net long 3340 contracts.
Diis (data was no available today)
Retail sold 1062 contracts on long side and sold 740 contracts short positions.Net long -322 contracts.
Note: Fiis net long position is @ 10.77 (high oversold zone) Vix is trading @ 10.36 down by 1.10%. Fiis added net long 3340 contracts in index that indicates we may see some more short covering.
Nifty if able to sustained above 25225 will give fresh break out. Immediate resistance for the day is placed @ 25147.
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Deepak Fertilisers Invests in Solar & Wind Captive Power Projects
Signed Share Subscription & Shareholders Agreements (SSSA) on 10 Sept 2025.
Investment of ₹478.44 Cr in Murli Solar Energy Pvt Ltd (MSEPL) for 26% equity (solar captive power).
Investment of ₹840 Cr in Sunsure Solarpak 51 Pvt Ltd (SSFOPL) for 26% equity (wind captive power).
Purpose: Renewable energy sourcing for captive consumption, lowering dependence on conventional power.
Aligns with Electricity Act 2003 provisions and long-term sustainability goals.
Concall -Vikram Solar
BESS is at an inflection point where Solar was in 2018
BESS installed capacity : 200 MWh, CEA projected capacity : 230 GWh by 2032
Bulk Deal
Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd.
AXIS MUTUAL FUND BUY 9,52,700 @ 695.00
MORGAN STANLEY ASIA SINGAPORE PTE BUY 8,80,000 shares @ 695.00
NIPPON INDIA MUTUAL FUND BUY 44,00,000 shares @ 695.00
PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP BUY 7,20,000shares @ 695.00
JUPITER WAGONS | SUBSIDIARY BAGS ₹113 CR RAILWAY ORDER
• LOA Received: From Ministry of Railways, Railway Board.
• Subsidiary: Jupiter Tatravagonka Railwheel Factory Pvt Ltd.
• Order Details: 9,000 LHB axles for FIAT-IR Bogies.
• Value: ~₹113 Cr.
• Strengthens railway component portfolio & ensures revenue visibility.
Impact: Positive – Strong govt. contract adds to order book & credibility.
@beatthestreet10
MANGALAM WORLDWIDE | NSE APPROVES MIGRATION TO MAIN BOARD
• Approval: NSE grants in-principle approval for migration from SME (Emerge) platform to Main Board.
• Validity: Approval valid for 45 days; final migration subject to listing application & compliance.
• Benefits: Migration enhances visibility, liquidity & access to wider investor base.
Impact: Positive – Main Board listing can boost investor participation, trading volumes & valuation prospects.
RACE ECOCHAIN | BOARD OKAYS DEMERGER OF BIOMASS & RESTORE BAG DIVISIONS
• Demerger Scheme:
– Biomass Division → GEOECO Green Energy Ltd
– Restore Bag Division → Race Gateway Ltd
• FY25 Turnover:
– Biomass: ₹1,870.7 L (4.06%)
– Restore Bag: ₹893.8 L (1.94%)
– Total Co.: ₹46,029.9 L
• Rationale: Sharper business focus, growth opportunities, attract investors & partnerships.
• Share Swap Ratio:
– 267 shares of GEOECO for every 214 shares of Race Ecochain
– 206 shares of Gateway for every 200 shares of Race Ecochain
• Listing: Both resulting cos. to be listed on BSE & NSE.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: I would expect a 25 basis point cut, and I think you could see one or two other cuts - CNBC interview.
We're going to see a slight change in the policy rate as we move into the fall
Tariffs Impact Growth, Tough to Quantify
ADANI ENERGY : CANTOR ON STOCK
• Recommendation: Overweight
• Target Price: ₹1,048 (Earlier ₹1,650)
• Continues to grow across regulated & contracted transmission, increasing revenue from smart-meter annuities, and enhancing distribution efficiency.
• Revenue expected to better reflect assets commissioned from Q2.
• Rising demand & renewable energy push accelerating development of grid infra & digital metering.
ADANI PORTS : MACQUARIE NOTE
• Recommendation: Overweight
• Target Price: ₹1,760 (Earlier ₹1,650)
• Investing for long-term growth; well positioned to capitalise on India’s long-term trade potential.
• Strategic presence & integration of logistics offerings strengthen competitive advantage.
• Resilience supported by diversified port & cargo mix.
• International volumes & logistics ramp-up expected to further drive growth.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Target price raised, strong positioning with diversified operations & long-term growth visibility.
@beatthestreet10
JEFFERIES INDIA STRATEGY : NOTE BY MAHESH NANDURKAR
• New bottom-up top ideas include 25 BUYs and 8 UPFs out of a 223-stock coverage.
• Fresh inclusions to BUYs: Reliance, Coforge, Siemens Energy, Adani Ports, AWL Agri, Sun Pharma, Mankind & GMR Airports.
• New Underperform ideas: Delhivery & HPCL.
• Upgrades: Hero Moto & Dixon moved from Underperform to Hold.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Broad coverage with strong new BUY additions across sectors; selective downgrades highlight cautious stance on logistics & OMCs.
OIL MARKETING COS (OMCs) : CITI NOTE
• Brokerage constructive on HPCL, BPCL & IOCL, favouring them over upstream peers.
• IOCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹190
• BPCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹440
• HPCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹530
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Continued preference for downstream OMCs with strong Buy calls & supportive target prices.
TCS : CLSA NOTE
• Recommendation: Outperform
• Target Price: ₹4,279
• No material change in demand outlook despite global macro uncertainty.
• FY26 international growth expected to outpace overall company growth.
• Infosys share buyback proposal may invigorate buyback discussions at TCS as well.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Growth visibility in international markets & potential buyback catalyst support sentiment.
NIFTY : CLSA PRICE ACTION NOTE (LAURENCE BALANCO)
• Outlook remains unchanged as price action oscillates near a pivotal support zone.
• Key technical level anchored around 24,000 – 24,043, defined by the 200DMA & upper boundary of the Feb–Apr double bottom pattern.
• As long as price action holds above this critical support, there is a case for an upside target of 26,333.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Holding above the 24,000 zone strengthens the bullish setup, with room for further upside.
CONSUMER SECTOR : MACQUARIE NOTE
• Brokerage analysed the impact of unrest in Nepal & Indonesia on FMCG companies.
• Godrej Consumer – 14% of FY25 sales from Indonesia.
• Dabur – 8% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• ITC – 3% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• Berger Paints – 2% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• Asian Paints / Kansai Nerolac / Hindustan Unilever – ~1% of FY25 sales.
• Britannia / Nestle – sub-1% of FY25 sales.
@beatthestreet10
DR. REDDY’S : CO ACQUIRES STUGERON PORTFOLIO FROM J&J
• Acquired STUGERON® brand (Stugeron FORTE & PLUS) from Janssen (Johnson & Johnson affiliate).
• Coverage spans 18 APAC & EMEA markets, with India & Vietnam as focus markets.
• Deal Value: USD 50.5 million.
• Strengthens Central Nervous System (CNS) portfolio, marking entry into the anti-vertigo therapeutic space.
• In India, STUGERON® is #1 in Cinnarizine market & #2 in anti-vertigo market.
• Operations to be gradually transitioned for smooth integration.
HAL : CO FLAGS CONCERNS OVER AMCA SELECTION CRITERIA (ET)
• Competition for India’s next-gen fighter jet (AMCA) is intensifying.
• HAL raised concerns with ADA, claiming selection criteria unfairly disadvantage them.
• Issue linked to financial performance terms for manufacturing partner selection.
• Signals possible tensions in AMCA program execution & partnership structure.
Impact:
• ↓ Negative – Potential loss of lead role in AMCA project; market sentiment may turn cautious.
INDIA STRATEGY : GOLDMAN SACHS NOTE (AMORITA GOEL)
• GST cuts are a tailwind for India earnings.
• Earnings could increase by 1% for MSCI India ex-financials.
• MSCI India will see an effective GST rate cut of around 200 bps.
• 14% of MSCI India ex-financials revenue is exposed to GST rate cuts.
• GST cuts could directly support earnings through higher volume growth.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – GST cuts boost earnings potential, improve volume growth outlook & support broader market sentiment.
IT THEME – UPMOVE LIKELY TO EXTEND
1. IT Stocks (↑ Positive)
• US PPI data surprises with a 0.1% decline in Aug
• Traders now pricing in 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 – supportive for IT sector
2. Oracle Financial Services (↑ Positive)
• Parent Oracle surges 36% – best day since 1992, adding $244 bn in value
• Market cap close to $1 tn
• Oracle–OpenAI strike $300 bn cloud deal (WSJ)
• Promoter Larry Ellison now world’s richest man
3. Infosys (↑ Positive)
• Board to consider share buyback today
• Would be 5th buyback since listing; expected size ₹11k–14k cr
Kotak Inst on Indus Tower - Double upgrade
Upgrade to Buy from Sell, TP raised to Rs 400 from Rs 365
Believe concerns around uncertainty in payout & capital allocations with its African foray are overdone
Expect a gradual uptrend in tenancy ratio to drive 8/10.5% EBITDA/EPS CAGRS over FY2025-28E
Indus should resume dividends (90% payout, 7% yield) in FY2026E
Stock trades at an attractive 6.4X EV/EBITDA & 7.1% FCF yield in FY2027E
MOSL ON CUMMINS INDIA
MOSL maintains Buy on Cummins India with a revised target price of 4,500 (vs. ₹4,350 earlier)
Demand improvement seen across the powergen segment after lower industry volumes in 2HFY25
Strong growth witnessed in select industrial segments; healthy growth potential expected in distribution segment
Export business well diversified geographically, with limited exposure to the US
Powergen revenue estimates retained; segment expected to clock 15% CAGR over FY25-28
Industrial, distribution, and exports expected to post 18%/19%/17% CAGR respectively over FY25-28
Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR expected at 16%/16%/17% over FY25-
EBITDA margin modeled at 19.7%/19.7%/19.8% for FY26/FY27/FY28
Gross margin estimates at 35% for FY26-28 vs. 36% in FY25
HSBC On Agro-Inputs
Sector Regaining Health As Industry Dynamics Turn Favourable
Outlook From Major Agro Companies Appears Encouraging
H1FY25 Results From China Players Signal Bottoming Out With Rev Growth & Lower Inventories
Rising Fertilizer Prices & High Interest Rates Keep HSBC Cautious Despite Sector Recovery
UPL: Buy Call, Target Price At 775/Sh
Large Trades Update
• Bajel Projects – HDFC MF sold 18.93L (1.63%) @ ₹195
• DCM Nouvelle – Suman K Bang sold 1.05L (0.56%) @ ₹159.6
NX Block Trades bought 1L (0.53%) @ ₹159.5
• HCG – Aceso Pte sold 79.4L (5.69%) @ ₹695
Axis MF bought 9.5L (0.68%), Morgan Stanley 8.8L (0.63%), Nippon MF 44L (3.15%), Plutus Wealth 7.2L (0.51%)
• Paisalo Digital – Promoter bought 46.04L (0.66%) @ ₹37.5
• Prataap Snacks – Saravana Sec. sold 1.3L (0.54%) @ ₹998.8
CITI | OMC SECTOR UPDATE
OMC Stocks: Conflicting Market Forces
• Bullish factors: Strong earnings, government support, attractive yields
• Earnings outlook: Q2 likely much stronger than Q1
• Concerns: Russian crude imports & fuel price cuts appear overdone
• Share price: Recent decline provides an attractive entry point
• Preferred picks: HPCL, BPCL & IOCL over upstream peers
CLSA | OIL & GAS UPDATE
• Overall gas demand: Remained weak in July
• Delhi CNG sales: Up 27% YoY in Aug due to strong CV additions, supporting IGL volumes
• Mumbai CNG growth: Low single-digit, may weigh on MGL volumes
• Q2 volumes: Weak demand trends could impact GAIL, Petronet LNG & Gujarat State Petronet
• LNG prices: Decline could act as a medium-term tailwind for city gas distributors
MOSL | COAL INDIA UPDATE
• Recommendation: Buy maintained, revised TP ₹450 (vs ₹480 earlier)
• Volume outlook: Modest growth expected; long-term thermal power dominance intact
• Earnings: Likely under pressure in FY26 due to muted power demand & higher captive/merchant mining share (Apr-Jul'25)
• Global coal prices: Subdued, may cap e-auction prices & demand
• MOSL revisions: FY26/27E revenue trimmed 2–6%, EBITDA (ex-OBR) trimmed 5–9%
• Volume CAGR: Projected at 2–4% for FY26/27E
• Valuation: Stock trading at 4x FY27E EV/EBITDA, in line with 10-year historical average
ACTION FOR DAY
Weekly Sensex expiry
US: CPI, initial jobless claims, federal budget balance
Eurozone: ECB rate decision
Infosys board to mull share buyback
Patanjali Foods to trade ex-bonus in the ratio 2:1
Blue Jet Healthcare OFS opens for retail investors.
AGMs-CESC, IEX, Clean Science and Technology, Kaynes Tech, Jyothi Labs
Lock-in period ends for-JSW Cement (3%)
OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

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