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September 11, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 11.09.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24973.10 FII -115.69 cr DII 5004.29 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines, as positive sentiments took Nifty up to 25035.
A bearish spinning top candle appeared on the daily chart, suggesting indecision, weakness among buyers, and interruption to the current trend. A decisive breakdown below 24925 may lead to slippages towards 24878–24831, and if supply accentuates, it could test 24783.
However, since this candle formed with an opening gap, it indicates continuation of the short-term uptrend. On crossing 25021, Nifty may rally towards 25068–25116, and if demand strengthens further, it may test 25163.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK:
SPOT: 54536.00 Pcr: 0.98 Max CE OI: 57000 Max PE OI: 54000
On 11th September 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 54536.00, up 319.90 points (0.59%). The index moved 305.20 points during the session, making a high of 54705.20 and a low of 54400.00.
Technical View:
Key support and resistance levels are at 53870 and 55000. Intraday support and resistance are at 54450 and 54620.
Intraday Strategy:
Go long above 54620 with stop loss 54590 and target 54705.
Go short below 54452 with stop loss 54480 and target 54368.
The RSI for Bank Nifty stands at 45.20. Below 30 is oversold and above 70 is overbought.
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 4 out of 8 SMA’s (5,10,150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 4 out of 8 SMA’s. (20, 30, 50,100 Day)
One bullish single candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
• Rickshaw Man Uptrend
Macro
1.Dollar index @ 97.832
2.Vix @ 15.35 (+0.31%)
3.Brent crude @ 67.45
4.U.S. 10 years bond yield @ 4.047
Note:
PPI unexpectedly eased in August, falling 0.1% month-on-month and rising 2.6% year-on-year, well below forecasts, signaling cooling wholesale price pressures. This strengthens the case for the Fed to begin a rate-cut cycle, likely with a quarter-point cut at its September 17 meeting.
The more closely-watched CPI data is due Thursday. Economists expect headline inflation to rise 0.3% m-o-m and 2.9% y-o-y, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) is seen rising 0.2% m-o-m and 3.2% y-o-y.
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Data watch
1.Fiis net long 10.22 % (Highly oversold).
2.Fiis sold -115 cr in cash segment, added 698 cr in index and bought 254 in stock future
3.Vix @ 10.53 (-0.09)
4.Pcr @ 1.10 (Weekly) , 0.97 (Monthly)
OI position of institutions & retail
Fiis added 3906 contracts on long side and added 196 contracts on short side. Net long 3710 contracts.
Diis added 2443 contracts on long side and sold 1800 contracts on short side.Net short 643 contracts.
Retail sold 6617 contracts on long side and sold 878 contracts short positions.Net long -5739 contracts.
Note: Fiis net long position is @ 10.53 (high oversold zone). Vix after all the bad news on tariff front to my surprise did not when up in fact it traded around 11-13 zone which indicates panic was not there among Local institute & Retail participant.
I am expecting some more shorts to get covered.
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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Concall -Vikram Solar
BESS is at an inflection point where Solar was in 2018
BESS installed capacity : 200 MWh, CEA projected capacity : 230 GWh by 2032
Bulk Deal
Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd.
AXIS MUTUAL FUND BUY 9,52,700 @ 695.00
MORGAN STANLEY ASIA SINGAPORE PTE BUY 8,80,000 shares @ 695.00
NIPPON INDIA MUTUAL FUND BUY 44,00,000 shares @ 695.00
PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP BUY 7,20,000shares @ 695.00
RACE ECOCHAIN | BOARD OKAYS DEMERGER OF BIOMASS & RESTORE BAG DIVISIONS
• Demerger Scheme:
– Biomass Division → GEOECO Green Energy Ltd
– Restore Bag Division → Race Gateway Ltd
• FY25 Turnover:
– Biomass: ₹1,870.7 L (4.06%)
– Restore Bag: ₹893.8 L (1.94%)
– Total Co.: ₹46,029.9 L
• Rationale: Sharper business focus, growth opportunities, attract investors & partnerships.
• Share Swap Ratio:
– 267 shares of GEOECO for every 214 shares of Race Ecochain
– 206 shares of Gateway for every 200 shares of Race Ecochain
• Listing: Both resulting cos. to be listed on BSE & NSE.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: I would expect a 25 basis point cut, and I think you could see one or two other cuts - CNBC interview.
We're going to see a slight change in the policy rate as we move into the fall
Tariffs Impact Growth, Tough to Quantify
ADANI ENERGY : CANTOR ON STOCK
• Recommendation: Overweight
• Target Price: ₹1,048 (Earlier ₹1,650)
• Continues to grow across regulated & contracted transmission, increasing revenue from smart-meter annuities, and enhancing distribution efficiency.
• Revenue expected to better reflect assets commissioned from Q2.
• Rising demand & renewable energy push accelerating development of grid infra & digital metering.
ADANI PORTS : JEFFERIES NOTE
• Recommendation: Buy
• Target Price: ₹1,815
• Management guides for 1 billion tonnes cargo volume by 2030, led by domestic ports & international expansion.
• Focus on absolute EBITDA growth vs. volume growth alone reiterated, driven by margin expansion & integrated logistics.
• USA tariffs have had limited impact on port volumes as per management.
• Capital allocation focus remains intact.
ADANI PORTS : MACQUARIE NOTE
• Recommendation: Overweight
• Target Price: ₹1,760 (Earlier ₹1,650)
• Investing for long-term growth; well positioned to capitalise on India’s long-term trade potential.
• Strategic presence & integration of logistics offerings strengthen competitive advantage.
• Resilience supported by diversified port & cargo mix.
• International volumes & logistics ramp-up expected to further drive growth.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Target price raised, strong positioning with diversified operations & long-term growth visibility.
@beatthestreet10
JEFFERIES INDIA STRATEGY : NOTE BY MAHESH NANDURKAR
• New bottom-up top ideas include 25 BUYs and 8 UPFs out of a 223-stock coverage.
• Fresh inclusions to BUYs: Reliance, Coforge, Siemens Energy, Adani Ports, AWL Agri, Sun Pharma, Mankind & GMR Airports.
• New Underperform ideas: Delhivery & HPCL.
• Upgrades: Hero Moto & Dixon moved from Underperform to Hold.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Broad coverage with strong new BUY additions across sectors; selective downgrades highlight cautious stance on logistics & OMCs.
OIL MARKETING COS (OMCs) : CITI NOTE
• Brokerage constructive on HPCL, BPCL & IOCL, favouring them over upstream peers.
• IOCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹190
• BPCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹440
• HPCL – Maintain Buy | Target Price: ₹530
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Continued preference for downstream OMCs with strong Buy calls & supportive target prices.
TCS : CLSA NOTE
• Recommendation: Outperform
• Target Price: ₹4,279
• No material change in demand outlook despite global macro uncertainty.
• FY26 international growth expected to outpace overall company growth.
• Infosys share buyback proposal may invigorate buyback discussions at TCS as well.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Growth visibility in international markets & potential buyback catalyst support sentiment.
NIFTY : CLSA PRICE ACTION NOTE (LAURENCE BALANCO)
• Outlook remains unchanged as price action oscillates near a pivotal support zone.
• Key technical level anchored around 24,000 – 24,043, defined by the 200DMA & upper boundary of the Feb–Apr double bottom pattern.
• As long as price action holds above this critical support, there is a case for an upside target of 26,333.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – Holding above the 24,000 zone strengthens the bullish setup, with room for further upside.
CONSUMER SECTOR : MACQUARIE NOTE
• Brokerage analysed the impact of unrest in Nepal & Indonesia on FMCG companies.
• Godrej Consumer – 14% of FY25 sales from Indonesia.
• Dabur – 8% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• ITC – 3% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• Berger Paints – 2% of FY25 sales from Nepal.
• Asian Paints / Kansai Nerolac / Hindustan Unilever – ~1% of FY25 sales.
• Britannia / Nestle – sub-1% of FY25 sales.
@beatthestreet10
DR. REDDY’S : CO ACQUIRES STUGERON PORTFOLIO FROM J&J
• Acquired STUGERON® brand (Stugeron FORTE & PLUS) from Janssen (Johnson & Johnson affiliate).
• Coverage spans 18 APAC & EMEA markets, with India & Vietnam as focus markets.
• Deal Value: USD 50.5 million.
• Strengthens Central Nervous System (CNS) portfolio, marking entry into the anti-vertigo therapeutic space.
• In India, STUGERON® is #1 in Cinnarizine market & #2 in anti-vertigo market.
• Operations to be gradually transitioned for smooth integration.
HAL : CO FLAGS CONCERNS OVER AMCA SELECTION CRITERIA (ET)
• Competition for India’s next-gen fighter jet (AMCA) is intensifying.
• HAL raised concerns with ADA, claiming selection criteria unfairly disadvantage them.
• Issue linked to financial performance terms for manufacturing partner selection.
• Signals possible tensions in AMCA program execution & partnership structure.
Impact:
• ↓ Negative – Potential loss of lead role in AMCA project; market sentiment may turn cautious.
INDIA STRATEGY : GOLDMAN SACHS NOTE (AMORITA GOEL)
• GST cuts are a tailwind for India earnings.
• Earnings could increase by 1% for MSCI India ex-financials.
• MSCI India will see an effective GST rate cut of around 200 bps.
• 14% of MSCI India ex-financials revenue is exposed to GST rate cuts.
• GST cuts could directly support earnings through higher volume growth.
Impact:
• ↑ Positive – GST cuts boost earnings potential, improve volume growth outlook & support broader market sentiment.
IT THEME – UPMOVE LIKELY TO EXTEND
1. IT Stocks (↑ Positive)
• US PPI data surprises with a 0.1% decline in Aug
• Traders now pricing in 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025 – supportive for IT sector
2. Oracle Financial Services (↑ Positive)
• Parent Oracle surges 36% – best day since 1992, adding $244 bn in value
• Market cap close to $1 tn
• Oracle–OpenAI strike $300 bn cloud deal (WSJ)
• Promoter Larry Ellison now world’s richest man
3. Infosys (↑ Positive)
• Board to consider share buyback today
• Would be 5th buyback since listing; expected size ₹11k–14k cr
Kotak Inst on Indus Tower - Double upgrade
Upgrade to Buy from Sell, TP raised to Rs 400 from Rs 365
Believe concerns around uncertainty in payout & capital allocations with its African foray are overdone
Expect a gradual uptrend in tenancy ratio to drive 8/10.5% EBITDA/EPS CAGRS over FY2025-28E
Indus should resume dividends (90% payout, 7% yield) in FY2026E
Stock trades at an attractive 6.4X EV/EBITDA & 7.1% FCF yield in FY2027E
MOSL ON CUMMINS INDIA
MOSL maintains Buy on Cummins India with a revised target price of 4,500 (vs. ₹4,350 earlier)
Demand improvement seen across the powergen segment after lower industry volumes in 2HFY25
Strong growth witnessed in select industrial segments; healthy growth potential expected in distribution segment
Export business well diversified geographically, with limited exposure to the US
Powergen revenue estimates retained; segment expected to clock 15% CAGR over FY25-28
Industrial, distribution, and exports expected to post 18%/19%/17% CAGR respectively over FY25-28
Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR expected at 16%/16%/17% over FY25-
EBITDA margin modeled at 19.7%/19.7%/19.8% for FY26/FY27/FY28
Gross margin estimates at 35% for FY26-28 vs. 36% in FY25
HSBC On Agro-Inputs
Sector Regaining Health As Industry Dynamics Turn Favourable
Outlook From Major Agro Companies Appears Encouraging
H1FY25 Results From China Players Signal Bottoming Out With Rev Growth & Lower Inventories
Rising Fertilizer Prices & High Interest Rates Keep HSBC Cautious Despite Sector Recovery
UPL: Buy Call, Target Price At 775/Sh
Large Trades Update
• Bajel Projects – HDFC MF sold 18.93L (1.63%) @ ₹195
• DCM Nouvelle – Suman K Bang sold 1.05L (0.56%) @ ₹159.6
NX Block Trades bought 1L (0.53%) @ ₹159.5
• HCG – Aceso Pte sold 79.4L (5.69%) @ ₹695
Axis MF bought 9.5L (0.68%), Morgan Stanley 8.8L (0.63%), Nippon MF 44L (3.15%), Plutus Wealth 7.2L (0.51%)
• Paisalo Digital – Promoter bought 46.04L (0.66%) @ ₹37.5
• Prataap Snacks – Saravana Sec. sold 1.3L (0.54%) @ ₹998.8
CITI | OMC SECTOR UPDATE
OMC Stocks: Conflicting Market Forces
• Bullish factors: Strong earnings, government support, attractive yields
• Earnings outlook: Q2 likely much stronger than Q1
• Concerns: Russian crude imports & fuel price cuts appear overdone
• Share price: Recent decline provides an attractive entry point
• Preferred picks: HPCL, BPCL & IOCL over upstream peers
CLSA | OIL & GAS UPDATE
• Overall gas demand: Remained weak in July
• Delhi CNG sales: Up 27% YoY in Aug due to strong CV additions, supporting IGL volumes
• Mumbai CNG growth: Low single-digit, may weigh on MGL volumes
• Q2 volumes: Weak demand trends could impact GAIL, Petronet LNG & Gujarat State Petronet
• LNG prices: Decline could act as a medium-term tailwind for city gas distributors
MOSL | COAL INDIA UPDATE
• Recommendation: Buy maintained, revised TP ₹450 (vs ₹480 earlier)
• Volume outlook: Modest growth expected; long-term thermal power dominance intact
• Earnings: Likely under pressure in FY26 due to muted power demand & higher captive/merchant mining share (Apr-Jul'25)
• Global coal prices: Subdued, may cap e-auction prices & demand
• MOSL revisions: FY26/27E revenue trimmed 2–6%, EBITDA (ex-OBR) trimmed 5–9%
• Volume CAGR: Projected at 2–4% for FY26/27E
• Valuation: Stock trading at 4x FY27E EV/EBITDA, in line with 10-year historical average
ACTION FOR DAY
Weekly Sensex expiry
US: CPI, initial jobless claims, federal budget balance
Eurozone: ECB rate decision
Infosys board to mull share buyback
Patanjali Foods to trade ex-bonus in the ratio 2:1
Blue Jet Healthcare OFS opens for retail investors.
AGMs-CESC, IEX, Clean Science and Technology, Kaynes Tech, Jyothi Labs
Lock-in period ends for-JSW Cement (3%)
OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.
GAIL – NOMURA
Rating: Buy | Target Price: ₹225
• Tariff Hike Boost: Integrated tariff hike >20% could surprise positively.
• Petchem Recovery: Segment likely to improve from FY27F onwards.
• Tariff Request: GAIL has applied to PNGRB for a 33% hike to ₹78/mmbtu, driven by:
– Higher cost of substitute gas for compressors as APM gas allocation drops to zero
– PNGRB’s revised capacity determination lower than earlier estimate
• Expected Outcome: Tariff likely to rise to ₹70/mmbtu (~19.5% ↑) from April 2026.
• Impact:
– Gas transmission EBIT FY27F ↑42% y-y
– Group consolidated EBIT FY27F ↑24%
TCS – CLSA
Rating: Outperform | Target Price: ₹4,279
• AI Boost: Management sees net revenue upside as overall IT budgets expand due to AI adoption.
• Shareholder Confidence: With Infosys announcing a buyback, TCS may also undertake a tender buyback (~₹200m) instead of a large special dividend, last buyback was Dec’23.
• Demand: Broader demand commentary unchanged vs 1QFY26.
ETERNAL / BLINKIT – JPM
Rating: Overweight | Target Price: ₹390
• Leadership: Alt-data checks show Blinkit expanding edge over peers.
• Growth Focus: Can sustain higher growth without delaying break-even or profits.
• Strategy: Market growth prioritized over profits next 2 years.
• Financial Impact: FY26/27/28 GOV ↑ 6/22/35%; EBITDA largely unchanged.
TRENT – KOTAK INST EQT
Rating: Reduce | Target Price: ₹4,900 (from ₹5,300)
• GST Impact: Benefits a small portion of sales; limited near-term revenue boost.
• Store Expansion: More stores in existing cities may keep SSSG under pressure.
• Margins: Likely supported by RFID-driven employee cost efficiency.
• Earnings: FY26-28 EPS trimmed 3–7%.
Avendus on SBFC Fin
Upgrade to BUY, TP Rs 125
Expect 25p.c loan & earnings CAGR over FY25–29 led by selective network expansion, gradual uptick in ticket sizes
Opex-to-assets is expected to decline to 3.1p.c by FY29 led by front-loaded franchise investments & productivity gains
Strong pricing power in MSME lending, rising gold loan yields, & a lower cost of funds should lift spreads to 8.8p.c in near term
*Cantor on Adani Energy Solutions*
Assume O-P, TP Rs 1048 (Earlier TP Rs1,650)
AESL continues to grow across regulated & contracted transmission, increasing revenue from smart-meter annuities, & enhancing distribution efficiency
This growth is supported by a transmission pipeline under development worth Rs 593.04 billion & a near-term tender pipeline of approximately Rs 900 billion
From F2Q26 onward, revenue is expected to better reflect assets commissioned through F1Q26 as full-quarter earnings start to flow
*Jefferies on Adani Ports*
Buy, TP Rs 1815
Management meet takeaways
Management guides for 1 bnt cargo volume by 2030, led by domestic ports and international expansion.
Focus on absolute EBITDA growth vs. volume growth alone was reiterated, led by margin expansion and integrated logistics.
Management remains confident of achieving 14-19% YoY EBITDA growth in FY26E and 12-14% YoY volume growth.
USA tariffs have had limited impact on port volumes as per management.
Capital allocation focus remains
*Macquarie on Adani Ports*
O-P, TP Raised to Rs 1760 from Rs 1650
ADSEZ is well positioned to capitalise on India's long-term trade potential given its strategic presence and integration of logistics offerings.
Resilience is supported by a diversified port and cargo mix; international volumes and logistics ramp-up would further drive growth.
Build in 20%/16% Revenue/EBITDA CAGR over FY25-28E, driven by 50%+ CAGR in logistics segment & additions to international portfolio.
Raise FY27E/28E EPS by 11.7%/20.0% led by stronger growth in logistics segment & ramp-up of international capacities
*Avendus on SBFC Fin*
Upgrade to BUY, TP Rs 125
Expect 25p.c loan & earnings CAGR over FY25–29 led by selective network expansion, gradual uptick in ticket sizes
Opex-to-assets is expected to decline to 3.1p.c by FY29 led by front-loaded franchise investments & productivity gains
Strong pricing power in MSME lending, rising gold loan yields, & a lower cost of funds should lift spreads to 8.8p.c in near term
*HSBC In Agro – Inputs*
Sector is regaining health as industry dynamics turn favourable. Outlook by Ag majors appears encouraging
1H2025 performance by major China companies also indicates a bottoming out as revenues grow and inventories reduce
Rising fertilisers prices and high interest rates keeps us prudently watchful amid a sector recovery
UPL – BUY, TP Rs 775
*Nomura on GAIL*
Buy, TP Rs 225
Tariff hike might give a one-time boost
Integrated tariff hike above 20% could be a positive surprise
Petchem segment could recover from FY27F onwards
GAIL has submitted a request to PNGRB for a tariff increase of 33% to INR78/mmbtu, mainly on account of
i) higher cost of substitute gas consumed by compressors in pipeline operations as Administered Price Mechanism (APM) gas allocation has been progressively curtailed to zero;
ii) the capacity determination of GAIL’s integrated pipeline by the PNGRB has come out lower than the regulator’s previous estimate
Expect tariff to increase to INR70/mmbtu (up 19.5%), to be applicable from April 2026
This would result in a 42% y-y increase in gas transmission EBIT in FY27F, while group consolidated EBIT could rise 24%
*CLSA on TCS*
O-P, TP Rs 4279
Conf takeaways
While broader demand commentary remains unchanged versus 1QFY26, management sounded upbeat around revenue opportunity from AI.
They said overall IT budgets are likely to expand due to AI, providing a net revenue positive effect for TCS.
With recent share buyback proposal at INFY, think there could be incrementally more pressure at TCS to undertake a share buyback as a confidence building measure amid an overall weak demand environment.
TCS’s last share buyback concluded in Dec 2023, & instead of paying huge special dividend during 3QFY26, believe it may do a c.Rs200b tender buyback
*CITI om OMCs*
Stocks are experiencing conflicting market forces, with clear positives being obscured by perceived negatives
Despite this apparent tug-of-war, stay in bullish camp, recognising several undeniable strengths
These include robust earnings momentum (2Q likely to be materially better than 1Q), sustained gov’t support (LPG compensation, whilst delayed, was not denied), and attractive dividend yields (interim announcements anticipated).
Remain constructive on HPCL, BPCL, & IOC
*JPM on Eternal*
OW. TP raised to Rs 390
Recent Alt data channel checks confirm that Blinkit is expanding its leadership over peers in multiple ways
believe Blinkit can sustain higher growth for longer without expanding its break-even & absolute profit timelines
Expect Co will prioritise market growth over profit maximization over next two years
Thus increase QC FY26/27/28 GOV by 6/22/35% while keeping EBITDA largely unchanged
*Kotak Inst Eqt on Trent*
Reduce, TP cut to Rs 4900 from Rs 5300
GST cuts positively impact a relatively small portion of Trent’s sales & may have a limited impact on the near-term revenue growth.
Trent, however, continues to add more stores in existing cities, indicating that SSSG of existing stores may remain under pressure in near term.
Operating margin may, however, hold up as co continues to realize benefits from firm-wide RFID implementation, resulting in superior employee cost efficiency
Trim FY2026-28E EPS by 3-7%
*Macquarie on Consumer*
Analysing impact of unrest in Nepal and Indonesia
Godrej Consumer - 14% of FY25 sales from Indonesia
Dabur - 8% of FY25 sales from Nepal
ITC - 3% of FY25 sales from Nepal
Berger Paints - 2% of FY25 sales from Nepal
Asian Paints/ Kansai Nerolac/ Hindustan Unilever - ~1% of FY25 sales
Britannia/Nestle - sub-1% of FY25 sales
*Kotak Inst on Indus Tower*
Upgrade to Buy from Sell, TP raised to Rs 400 from Rs 365
Believe concerns around uncertainty in payout & capital allocations with its African foray are overdone
Expect a gradual uptrend in tenancy ratio to drive 8/10.5% EBITDA/EPS CAGRS over FY2025-28E
Indus should resume dividends (90% payout, 7% yield) in FY2026E
Stock trades at an attractive 6.4X EV/EBITDA & 7.1% FCF yield in FY2027E
*MOSL on Cummins*
Maintain Buy, Target Price raised to ₹4,500 (from ₹4,350)
Demand improvement in Powergen after 2HFY25 slowdown
Strong growth in select industrial and distribution segments
Export business geographically diversified, limited US exposure
Powergen segment expected 15% CAGR (FY25-28)
Industrial/Distribution/Exports CAGR at 18%/19%/17% (FY25-28)
Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR projected at 16%/16%/17% (FY25-28)
EBITDA margins steady at ~19.7%-19.8% (FY26-FY28)
Gross margins at 35% (FY26-28) vs 36% in FY25
Karbonsteel Engineering : Key Investment Highlights
Company operates into heavy steel structures which includes complex projects like Bullet Train Bridges
Coming with IPO at valuations lower than peer; PE ratio around 17

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