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September 01, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 01.09.2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 24426.85 FII -8312.66 cr DII 11487.64 cr
(1st – 5th September 2025)
As discussed in the previous report dated 25th August 2025, market behaviour remained on expected lines during the past week as bears took control and dragged Nifty down to 24404.70.
A long bearish candle slid rapidly and filled the bullish runaway gap of the prior week, neutralising buyers’ efforts of the past two weeks. This is not a good sign and has turned short-term bearish sentiment into strong bearish.
If Nifty decisively breaks 24300, it may slide further to 24171–24043, and if supply pressure increases, it could test 23915. On the other hand, Nifty has so far respected the opening bullish gap formed on 12th May 2025.
If this gap is defended, a rally may emerge towards 24555–24683. A decisive breakout above these resistances could push Nifty to 24810–24839.
Bank Nifty Outlook:
Spot: 53655.65 | PCR: 0.85 | Max CE OI: 57000 | Max PE OI: 54000
On 29th August 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 53655.65 (-164.70 / -0.31%) with a total movement of 430.35 points. The index hit a high of 54086 and a low of 53655.65.
Technical View:
Key support and resistance are at 53100 and 54200.
Intraday support and resistance are at 53520 and 53790.
Intraday Strategy
Go long above 53790 with SL 53750 and target 53920.
Go short below 53520 with SL 53565 and target 53390.
Indicator Check
RSI stands at 27.40, indicating oversold levels (below 30 oversold, above 70 overbought).
Bank nifty Day SMA Analysis:
Bank nifty is trading above 2 out of 8 SMA’s (150, 200 Day).
Bank nifty is trading below 6 out of 8 SMA’s. (5, 10, 20, 30, 50,100 Day)
No. active candlestick Pattern was identified in bank nifty.
Macros
1. Dollar index @ 97.69
2. S&P 500 Vix @ 15.63 (+0.93)
3. Brent crude @ 67.48
Note: Trump’s tariff stance was the talking point of the week. PM Modi is visiting several countries including Japan and China.
As far as China is concerned, we are not very confident that India will be able to expand its exports to any notable extent. Total bilateral trade between India and China stands at $127.71 billion in 2024-25, of which India’s exports are only $14.25 billion, leaving a massive trade deficit of $113.46 billion. This deficit widened 7.8% y-o-y.
Some border issues may get resolved and certain critical supplies may resume, particularly rare earth magnets and DAP fertilizer (India depends 95% on China for DAP, and supplies are set to close from 1st October).
If the issue remains unresolved over the next two months, we may see heavy job losses in gems & jewelry, textiles, and leather sectors. Some agencies estimate direct job losses at 40–50 lakh.
Conclusion: Indian equity markets are likely to remain under FII selling pressure for some more time. Investors must brace for further pain ahead.
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Data watch
1.Fiis net long 8.5 % (Highly oversold).
2.Fiis sold 8312.66 cr in cash segment, sold 1239.02 cr in index and bought 1612.52 in stock future
3.Vix @ 11.75 (-3.53%)
4.Pcr @ 0.54(Weekly), 1.17 (Monthly)
OI position of institutions & retail
Fiis bought 1566 contracts on long side and 8247 contracts on short side. Net sell is @ 6681 contract
Diis bought 1194 contracts on long side and 526 contracts on short side.Net long is @ 668 contract
Retail bought 6995 contracts on long side and sold 4314 contracts short positions.Net long 2681
Note: Again, Fiis net long position comes below 10% currently it is @ 8.5% that is in highly oversold zone, Pcr is @ 0.54. Fiis created net sell position of 6681 contracts against 668 contact & 2681 contract by DIIS & Retail so in all 3332 net short position has been created.
Weekly levels will be shared in our nifty view.
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Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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INCRED ON DELHIVERY
InCred re-initiates coverage on Delhivery with Reduce rating; TP ₹300
Headwinds seen ahead for Delhivery
Ecom Express acquisition may be a damp squib in FY26F-27F
Amazon & Flipkart's 3PL foray to hamper Delhivery
Only marginal operating leverage achieved in FY20-25
Recent performance remains insipid
Service EBITDA margin estimated at 12% in FY26F
EBITDA margin expected to improve by 50 bps annually over FY26F-
Adjusted EBITDA margin (post-ESOP) to rise 170 bps/150 bps/110 bps YoY
Valuation assumes 18x EV/EBITDA exit multiple on FY31F EBITDA
Upside risk lies in higher-than-expected margins
@beatthestreet10
SCO Summit 2025
Foreign Secretary On Modi-Xi Meet
There is no change in India's position on China
Both sides in contact for scheduling challenges regarding direct flights between India and China
Received China's cooperation and understanding on the topic of cross-border terrorism
India-China trade deficit was also discussed when China's foreign minister was in India
PM Modi now scheduled to have a bilateral meeting with russia's putin
PM Modi has invited President Xi Jinping to the BRICS Summit india will host in 2026
@beatthestreet10
SCO Summit 2025
Foreign Secretary On Modi-Xi Meet
Both leaders agreed to move for solutions to reduce trade deficit
The role of Indian and Chinese economy to stabilise the global trade was recognised
Both leaders took note of disengagement last year
Both agreed that India-China relationship is critical for the asian century
PM Modi and Xi Jinping agreed that differences should not be allowed to grow in to disputes
Both leaders shared their perspectives for longer term growth and development of India and China
B&K Securities on GDP
• FY26 GDP growth forecast raised to 6.5% (from 6.3%) on strong Q1FY26.
• GST rationalisation expected to boost demand.
• Easing food prices & controlled inflation to aid household consumption.
• Good rainfall, strong reservoirs, healthy sowing → support farm output, incomes & stabilise food inflation.
• RBI’s 100 bps front-loaded rate cuts to sustain aggregate demand.
• Risks: US tariffs & global turbulence may push growth lower.
BofA on GDP
• GDP at 7.8% YoY, sharp recovery, beats estimate.
• Growth is broad-based across sectors.
• RBI likely to stay on sidelines near term.
• Maintain FY26 GDP growth at 6.5%; upside risks remain.
• See downside risks to FY27 GDP (7%) from trade impact.
SBI Research on GDP
• Strong Q1 GDP, but moderation ahead.
• Projects FY26 GDP ~6.5%.
• Growth to be supported by public capex, consumption & services.
• GST rationalisation could deliver long-term gains.
• Expects credit demand to rise in festive season.
• Risks from tariffs, but GST 2.0 + festive demand to offset negatives from Q3.
UBS on GDP
• Real GDP growth at 7.8% YoY, above consensus.
• Lower nominal GDP in FY26 may hit corporate revenue & credit growth.
• Maintain FY26 forecast, but cut FY27 to 6.3% (↓40 bps) on tariff risks.
• Consumption strong, but investment & exports lag.
• Growth led by services, net exports negative.
• Calls for counter-cyclical policy support.
Goldman Sachs on GDP
• GDP above expectations on strong consumption & services.
• Surprised by strength in tourism & transport.
• See upside risks to FY26 & CY25 forecasts.
• US tariff headwinds remain, but outlook upbeat.
ANTIQUE ON GDP
Antique says growth outlook remains cloudy
Strong growth driven by gross fixed capital formation (+7.8% YoY)
Government consumption grew 7.4% YoY
Private consumption grew 7.0% YoY
Net exports were a drag with exports up 6.3% YoY and imports up 10.9% YoY
Gross Value Added (GVA) rose 7.6% YoY, led by services (+9.3% YoY)
Industry grew 6.3% YoY, driven by manufacturing (+7.7% YoY) and construction (+7.6% YoY)
Antique retains FY26 GDP growth estimate at 6.5% YoY
Upside risk from GST rate cut (~1.2-1.5 lakh cr) that may add 1.8-3.5 lakh cr to consumption
Downside risk from 50% US tariffs, which may hit growth by 50-80 bps
JPMorgan on Reliance (CMP: ₹1,356)
• Maintain Overweight, TP: ₹1,695.
• Key: Plans to list Jio by June 2026.
• Street valuations for Jio already marked to peer multiples.
• Higher tariff probability into IPO → potential catalyst for RIL stock.
• Concern: possible **Holdco
Kotak Instl Eq on Reliance (CMP: ₹1,356)
• Maintain ADD, TP: ₹1,555.
• Reiterated target: double EBITDA by FY27 (from FY22).
• Retail biz: expects 20%+ revenue CAGR over 3 yrs.
• FMCG biz: ambition of ₹1 Lk Cr revenue in 5 yrs.
• Long-term goal: become India’s largest FMCG with global presence.
• Announced JV with Meta & expanded partnership with Google Cloud.
@beatthestreet10
Nomura on Ather Energy (CMP: ₹449)
• Maintain BUY, TP: ₹458.
• Ather unveils EL Platform, Connected Mobility.
• Continues to strengthen position as tech & innovation leader in e2w space.
• Focus on enhancing rider experience.
• Success of fast-charging rollout & Aurangabad facility commissioning key.
• Volumes to rise at 41% CAGR (FY25–28) → from 1.55 Lk (FY25) to 4.36 Lk (FY28).
CLSA on IT
• Expect 75 bps US rate cuts over next 1–1.5 yrs → could lift Indian IT valuations by 10–15%.
• See potential discretionary demand revival in real estate, utilities, materials, staples & energy.
• Stay positive on Indian IT given attractive valuations.
• Maintain HC O-PF on PSYS & TechM.
• O-PF on TCS, INFY, HCL & WPRO; Hold on LTIM.
Jefferies on Cement
• Cement prices in Aug fell only ~0.6% MoM, despite peak monsoons.
• FY26 YTD prices +6% YoY vs est. +4% YoY.
• With monsoon ending, industry gearing up for hikes.
• Some regions/dealers suggest ₹30/bag (~8%) hike soon.
• Upcoming GST meeting may cut rate from 28% → 18%.
• Top picks: Ambuja, UltraTech, JK Cement.
HSBC on Reliance
• BUY, TP: ₹1,630.
• AGM focus: AI push, doubling EBITDA, IPO of digital biz.
• Also: faster retail growth & new energy business launch.
@beatthestreet10
Investec on IndiGo(CMP: ₹5,615)
• Maintain SELL, TP: ₹4,050.
• Since Sep ’22, promoters divested ~33% equity → ₹45,500 Cr unlocked.
• Mr. Gangwal pared >30% (now 6%), nearing full exit → could ease supply overhang.
• Mr. Bhatia trimmed only 2%, still holds 36% (exceptionally high for airlines).
• Globally, airlines rarely have concentrated promoter holdings.
• Valuations already pricing aggressive FY30 growth.
• Any additional supply may weigh on stock price.
@beatthestreet10
MS on Titagarh Rail
• OW, TP: ₹1,017.
• Solid proxy to invest in India’s rail segment.
• Strengths: strong order book, large passenger coach market, benign competition, steady freight biz, growing rail equipment engineering capabilities.
• Freight: avg monthly execution ~773 wagons in FY26e.
• Passenger: expect execution of 120 coaches in FY26e.
• Forecast earnings CAGR FY26–28e: 24%.
Incred on Apollo Hospitals
Initiate Coverage, TP 8645
Rise in healthcare spending is quite positive
Apollo Hospitals Enterprises has a huge advantage as the company is an advanced, technology-focused integrated healthcare provider
Changing disease profile and a rise in the awareness regarding healthcare across India is a positive development for the company.
Despite tailwinds from Bangladesh, medical tourism bolsters the company’s revenue because of its reputation and regulatory help.
The company plans to invest Rs8000cr for aggressive expansion, increasing the bed capacity by 4,300
Sobha, Brigade, Prestige :
KARNATAKA GOVT DOUBLES PROPERTY REGISTRATION FEES TO 2% FROM 1%
MOSL On Suzlon
Buy, TP Rs 80
Management meet takeaways
Transitioning from turn-around to a growth story
CEO reaffirms long-term commitment to SUEL
Recent order could be the beginning of full-scale indigenization
Localization by foreign OEMs beset with unique challenges
Further clarity awaited on critical aspects of localization order
Solar, BESS, Wind: all indispensable to energy-secure future
EPC share to rise to 50% of order book by FY28
OMCs : The rate of 19 kg commercial LPG gas cylinders has been reduced by Rs 51.50,
In Delhi
The retail sale price of a 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder will be Rs 1580 from September 1.
There is no change in the prices of 14.2 KG domestic cylinders
NUVAMA ON RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
Nuvama maintains Buy on Reliance Industries with TP of 1,733
AGM highlights a multi-decadal growth opportunity
RIL's EBITDA to double by 2027E (FY22 base)
O2C expansion remains on track
New Energy business scaling up with long-term potential
Digital/Jio IPO expected within ten months
Al and FMCG identified as additional growth drivers
Strong outlook for Retail and Digital segments
Petchem capacity additions to support growth
Golden Refining era continues with USD 10+/bbl GRM
New Energy rollout may add 50%+ to PAT
Valuation rerating expected as O2C aligns with net-zero 2035 target
Brokerages Stocks : Brokerage income expected to reduce as Nifty Bank Derivatives lot size increases from 600 to 900
Brokerage costs will reduce for traders
Brokerages Stocks : Brokerage income expected to reduce as Nifty Bank Derivatives lot size increases from 600 to 900
Brokerage costs will reduce for traders
Ather Energy : Targets 20pc market share in near term, says CEO Tarun Mehta (Current at 17%)
Targeting ~700 experience centres by end-FY26E (from now 500-plus) with growth focused on Central and North regions.
Pharma Stocks : Health Ministry proposes to reduce the timeline to half for the review and approval timeline for manufacturing drugs for clinical trials
Ministry proposed to reduce the timeline from current 90 working days to 45 working days
Insurance Stocks : Govt Notification to Fast-Track 100% FDI in Insurance
FDI Proposals to Get Automatic Route, IRDAI Oversight
Indian Resident Rule for Directors & KMP to be Scrapped
In Budget 2025 Govt proposed to raise FDI Limit Raised from 74% to 100% in Insurance
Ceinsys Tech : Samir Sabharwal Resigns As CFO Effective September 15
Hindustan Copper : Board To Meet On September 25 To Consider Raising Up To ₹500 Cr Via NCDs
BLS International : Arm BLS International FZE Subscribes 100% Stake Of BLS Consular Services
Markolines Pavement Technologies
Unexecuted order book “close to Rs. 400 crores” with Rs 600 crores pipeline
FY26 guidance: revenue growth “about 25%-30%” with EBITDA margin “more or less the same as last year
migrated to BSE main board; NSE main board application filed;
Merger: “merger of Markolines Pavement and Markolines Infra” underway
KAY CEE ENERGY : CO CLARIFIES ON RUMOURS, REPORTS ₹61.96 CR REVENUE
Clarification: Performance Certificate rightly issued to Kay Cee Energy; Wonder Cement had no EPC role.
Projects: All RVPN projects progressing smoothly; no business disruption.
Revenue Update: ₹61.96 Cr revenue from operations (Apr–Aug 2025), showing strong momentum.
Real Estate Stocks : Mumbai - Property registrations dip 3% YoY in Aug; up 3% YoY in 8MCY25
Karnataka-Increases property registration tax from 1% to 2%
BAJAJ AUTO AUG SALES : TOTAL SALES UP 5 % TO 4,17,616 UNITS YOY
BAJAJ AUTO: AUGUST 2025 SALES UP 5% YOY TO 4.18 LAKH UNITS
Domestic two-wheeler sales fell 12% to 1.84 lakh units, while export two-wheelers rose 25% to 1.58 lakh units.
Commercial vehicle sales increased 21% to 75,729 units, led by 58% export growth.
Total domestic sales declined 8% to 2.32 lakh units, while exports rose 29% to 1.85 lakh units.
SHRIRAM FINANCE : 20.5 LKH SHARES CHANGE HANDS IN A BLOCK TRADE
CAPRI GLOBAL : 27.3 LKH SHARES CHANGE HANDS IN A BLOCK TRADE
DHARAN INFRA EPC: SECURES ₹1,171 CR EPC CONTRACTS FROM SKYMAX INFRA POWER
Company won EPC and supply work orders worth ₹1,171.21 crore at Orvakal Industrial Park, Andhra Pradesh.
Around 80% of project value relates to global plant and machinery procurement through subsidiaries.
Revenues and liabilities will be consolidated in company’s books under Ind-AS.
Projects are scheduled for completion by March 31, 2027.
ESCORTS KUBOTA: AUGUST 2025 TRACTOR SALES UP 27% YOY TO 8,456 UNITS
Domestic sales rose 27% to 7,902 units, supported by good monsoon, strong water levels and early festive demand.
Export sales grew 36% to 554 units, reflecting robust overseas traction.
HERO MOTO : AUG 2 WHEELER ELECTRIC VAHAN DATA
Hero Motor's Sales Almost Double To 13% From 7% In April
ATHER ENERGY; AUG VAHAN DATA
Ather Energy Market Share Rises 30 Basis Points Το 17%
BAJAJ AUTO ;AUG VAHAN DATA
Bajaj Auto Sees Market Share Halve MoM To 11%
TVS MOTOR: AUG VAHAN DATA
TVS Motor Continues To Maintain Market Leadership With 23% Share
OLA ELECTRIC; AUG VAHAN DATA
Ola Electric Maintains Third Position With 18% Market Share
MS on Mphasis
Maintain Overweight; Hike TP to Rs 3625 from Rs 3500
Micro factors appear to be aligning for Mphasis
Any macro support from rate cuts could provide further tailwinds to growth
Chasing growth within FCF margin guardrails creates rerating potential
Mphasis is preferred mid-cap play
Coming off a bad cycle, expect Mphasis to enter a beat and raise revenue trajectory
Improving growth trends create re-rating potential
Expect the stock to narrow the valuation gap with mid-cap peers as the revenue growth gap narrows
Morgan Stanley On Indian Market
Earnings And Market Peak Are In Front Of Us
India Is Likely To Gain Share In Global Output In The Coming Decades
There Is A Strong Case For Re-Rating
Immediate Return Prospects Depend On Confidence In The Growth Cycle
Remain Confident And Ahead Of The Consensus
Soft Earnings Growth Patch Seems To Be Ending But The Market is Not Yet Convinced
The Equity Market May Be Underestimating The Likely Tum in The Growth Cycle
PREMIER ENERGIES: SUBSIDIARIES WIN ₹2,703 CR SOLAR PV ORDERS
Subsidiaries received and accepted orders worth ₹2,703 crore from new and existing customers.
Orders cover supply of solar PV modules and cells with total capacity of 2,059 MW.
Execution is scheduled across FY26 and FY27.
AXISCADES TECHNOLOGIES: SUBSIDIARY MISTRAL SOLUTIONS WINS DEFENCE ORDER FROM DRDO
Mistral Solutions secured new orders from CASDIC, DRDO, Ministry of Defence for airborne systems.
The order is for prototype development and will be followed by a production order.
Forecast production covers about 600 Su-30MKI upgrades worth ₹150 crore over five years.
MOTILAL OSWAL’S RAAMDEO AGRAWAL : KEY COMMENTS
• Expects bumper earnings growth of 15–18% next year ↑
• Says Indian economy is not a slave to tariffs
• Govt has ample ammunition to counter 50% US tariff impact
• Market is waiting for GST cuts to translate into visible effect
SURAJ ESTATE DEVELOPERS: BOARD MEETING ON 3 SEPTEMBER 2025 TO CONSIDER FUNDRAISE
Board will consider enabling resolution for raising funds via equity shares or equity-linked/convertible securities.
Possible modes include private placement, preferential issue, rights issue, QIP or other permissible routes.
SEJAL GLASS: BOARD MEETING ON 3 SEPTEMBER 2025 TO CONSIDER FUNDRAISE
Board will review proposal for raising funds via composite issue of non-convertible redeemable preference shares or other eligible securities.
SAMMAAN CAPITAL: BOARD MEETING ON 3 SEPTEMBER 2025 TO CONSIDER FUNDRAISE AND DIVIDEND
Board will consider raising funds via issuance of debt securities in one or more tranches, domestic or international.

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