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July 03, 2025

Daily Morning Report Date: 3rd July 2025
NIFTY OUTLOOK: 25453.40 FII: -1561.62 cr DII: 3036.68 cr
As discussed yesterday, market behaviour remained on expected lines. Selling pressure dragged the Nifty down to our support of 25373 (made a low of 25379) after a decisive breakdown of 25486.
An average bearish candle appeared on the daily chart, suggesting that if Nifty decisively breaks below 25397, further weakness may extend to 25341–25286. If selling intensifies, it may test 25230.
On the upside, 25510–25565 may act as immediate resistance. A breakout above these levels and sustained move may push Nifty towards 25621–25677.
Bank Nifty OUTLOOK
SPOT: 56999.20 PCR: 1.09 Max CE OI: 56000 Max PE OI: 56000
On 2nd July 2025, Bank Nifty closed at 56999.20, down 0.80% from the previous close.
The index moved 794.60 points during the session, with a high of 57628.40 and a low of 56833.80.
Technical View on Daily Chart:
Key support and resistance levels are at 56500 and 57900, respectively.
Intraday Strategy:
Go Long above 57210 with SL 57145 and target 57435
Go Short below 56780 with SL 56850 and target 56560
The RSI stands at 59.60 (below 30 is oversold, above 70 is overbought).
SMA Analysis:
Bank Nifty is trading above 7 out of 8 SMAs (10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200-day) and below the 5-day SMA.
No active candlestick pattern identified.
Macros.
1. Dollar index @ 96.455
2. Vix @16.64
3. Crude @ 68.57
4. US 10 years bond yield @ 4.261
Note:
Markets worldwide remain subdued as the 9th July deadline approaches. Trump has confirmed he won’t extend it, indicating that if no deal is reached, formal letters detailing tariff rates will be issued to affected nations.
The impact of tariffs is becoming evident in China and other economies. Recent data showed that China’s services sector grew at its slowest pace in nine months in June. Additionally, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in May, hitting its lowest since November 2019, with weak global demand affecting exports and imports rebounding from prior declines.
Strategy:
Remain cautious and adopt a wait-and-watch approach for the next 4–5 days.
Contributed by
Ashok bhandari : INH000019549
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*COLGATE, BUTTERFLY GANDHIMATHI, TTK PRESTIGE, STOVE KRAFT, SINGER INDIA, FOOTWEAR, FMCG, CERAMIC STOCKS: Govt may cut GST on household items from 12% to 5%*
Likely affected products include toothpaste, pressure cookers, footwear, sewing machines, and ceramic tiles.
*The move aims to lower prices and boost consumption among middle and lower-income households*.
CLSA ON DMART
(CMP: ₹4,391.90)
MAINTAIN : OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE: ₹5,549
Reported Q1 Standalone Revenues 2% Below Estimates
Co Added Nine New Stores During The Quarter (Versus Six Stores In Q1FY25)
Total Store Count At 424 At The End Of Q1FY26
CITI ON PNB (CMP:113.85)
MAINTAIN SELL
TARGET PRICE: ₹101
Reported Gross Advances Growth Of 9.9% YoY/1.3% QoQ (Vs Est Of 2.1% QoQ)
Expect Ram Segments To Be Primary Growth Driver
Deposits Growth Stood Marginally Below Est
Shakti Pumps:
Co Plans QIP Launch With Set Floor Price of ₹965.96
@beatthestreet10
Asahi India Glass : Promoter Ashok Kanhayalal Monga sold 12,000 shares.
@beatthestreet10
Star Cement : Promoter Vinay and Co. sold 1228 shares, Promoter Suchita Agarwal sold 9,500 shares
@beatthestreet10
Incred on Adani Power
Initiate ADD, TP Rs 649
Co targets 75% capacity growth to 30.67GW by FY30F, aligning with India’s 5-6% power demand growth to meet projected 458GW peak by FY32F
87% of Co’s capacity is tied to long-term PPAs delivering Rs200bn of recurring EBITDA in FY25
17% of sales volume is from merchant power, capitalizing on high-margin opportunities
Capex of Rs1,200bn is expected to be funded via internal accruals, deleveraging b/s to reduce net-debt/EBITDA to 0.9x by FY30F from 1.5x in FY25
Downside risks: Execution delay in the 13.12GW pipeline, lower-than-expected merchant realization and revival of discom payment issue.
@beatthestreet10
IL&FS BKC OFFICE IN CLIFFHANGER
IL&FS moves NCLT to scrap Brookfield’s Rs 1,080-crore bid for Mumbai headquarters.
https://bit.ly/44dOjgH
CLSA on Avenue Supermart
O-P, TP Rs 5549
reported standalone revenues of Rs159,321m for 1QFY26 (2% below estimates).
Sales growth for the quarter stood at 16.2% YoY (versus 16.7%/17.5%/14.2% in 4QFY25/3QFY25/2QFY25 respectively)
Co added nine new stores during quarter
Biocon : Co. Gets EU Nod for Denosumab Biosimilars
- Positive Impact
EU Approval Boost: European Commission grants marketing authorization for Vevzuo® and Evfraxy®, biosimilars of Denosumab, for treating osteoporosis and cancer-related bone loss.
Therapeutic Expansion: Marks Biocon Biologics’ entry into the bone health segment—expanding therapeutic portfolio.
Regulatory Momentum: Third biosimilar approval in EU in 18 months, demonstrating strong regulatory execution and pipeline strength.
Market Opportunity: Targets large patient population across Europe—32 million osteoporosis cases in 50+ age group (2019 data).
Commercial Leverage: Enhances global biosimilars portfolio with applications in oncology and orthopedics.
WARDWIZARD INNOVATIONS : PROMOTER SOLD 2.33 % STAKES ON 27 ,30 th JUNE VIA OPEN MARKET
Jefferies on GMR Airports
Buy, TP Rs 100
TDSAT recently quashed AERA’s earlier HRAB calculation for DIAL Airport, further directing a fresh computation
HRAB, a notional asset base, is key to setting aero tariffs, & TDSAT has held AERA's method as incorrect to calculate HRAB
If final ruling favors DIAL, revised HRAB could significantly raise allowable tariff recovery due to past under-recoveries
This &other debated under-recoveries could mean major upside to DIAL tariff/profitability
Vedanta: Vedanta Demerger Faces NCLT Delay Amid Regulatory Review
NCLT Hearing Deferred: Petroleum Ministry seeks more time to review the demerger; next hearing set for August 20.
SEBI & NSE Input: SEBI is still verifying compliance, while NSE has already granted a No Objection Certificate.
Process Uncertainty: Delay adds regulatory overhang and uncertainty to the timeline of Vedanta's restructuring.
Strategic Plans Unchanged: Vedanta reiterates commitment to its demerger and reorganization strategy.
Negative Impact (Short-Term): Delay may pressure investor sentiment and stock performance in the near term
GOLDMAN SACHS ON CONSUMER STAPLES
Govt Considering Eliminating 12% GST Slab & Reclassifying Them In 5% Slab, As Per Reports
Apparel & Footwear Products Currently At 12% GST; Trent & Bata In Focus
Packaged Foods & Beverages Currently At 12% GST Include Nestle's Condensed Milk, Confectionery
CLSA ON DMART
(CMP: ₹4,391.90)
MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE: ₹5,549
Reported Q1 Standalone Revenues 2% Below Estimates
Co Added Nine New Stores During The Quarter (Versus Six Stores In Q1FY25)
Total Store Count At 424 At The End Of Q1FY26
MACQUARIE ON DMART
(CMP:₹4,391.90)
MAINTAIN UNDERPERFORM
TARGET PRICE: ₹3,000
Q1 Sales Growth Moderated Slightly From Q4
Marginal Miss On Sales Growth
Healthy Pace Of Store Additions
Typically, Q1 Sees A Stronger Gross Margin Given Product Mix
Hence, Assume A Sequential Uptick In Gross Margin & EBITDA Margin
CITI ON SAIL
(CMP:137.48)
MAINTAIN SELL
TARGET PRICE: ₹115
Revise Estimates Upwards Based On Recent Trends & Mgmt Commentary
However, Believe That 1Q EBITDA/t Should Likely Be Peak & Already Disc In Stk Price
Steel Prices Could Correct Further Given Demand-Supply Trends
Spot EBITDA/t Would Imply Co Currently Trades At EV/EBITDA Multiple Of 7x
Expect Further Downside To Steel Prices And EBITDA/t To Correct Further
Incred on Adani Power
Initiate ADD, TP Rs 649
Co targets 75% capacity growth to 30.67GW by FY30F, aligning with India’s 5-6% power demand growth to meet projected 458GW peak by FY32F
87% of Co’s capacity is tied to long-term PPAs delivering Rs200bn of recurring EBITDA in FY25
17% of sales volume is from merchant power, capitalizing on high-margin opportunities
Capex of Rs1,200bn is expected to be funded via internal accruals, deleveraging b/s to reduce net-debt/EBITDA to 0.9x by FY30F from 1.5x in FY25
Downside risks: Execution delay in the 13.12GW pipeline, lower-than-expected merchant realization and revival of discom payment issue.
GOVT SOURCES SAY Interim Trade Deal Could Be Signed With US Within The Next Two Days - CNBCTV 18
Negotiations For Concluding An Interim Trade Deal B/w India & The US Are In Final Stages
Indian Officials Are Demanding Greater Access For Labour Intensive Industries
Cannot Open Agri & Dairy Sectors Completely; Ltd Access In Some Areas May Be Allowed
India Will Not Compromise On Interests Of Farmers
UBS on NBFCS
Growth to keep moderating, limited (asset quality) improvement
Cost of funds could see a small decline sequentially
Commentary on asset quality, cost of fund and growth are key
Top picks are Chola Finance, PFC and PNB Housing
GOLDMAN SACHS ON CONSUMER STAPLES
Govt Considering Eliminating 12% GST Slab & Reclassifying Them In 5% Slab, As Per Reports
Apparel & Footwear Products Currently At 12% GST; Trent & Bata In Focus
Packaged Foods & Beverages Currently At 12% GST Include Nestle's Condensed Milk, Confectionery
Kotak India Strategy
Insiders out, outsiders in
Sharp increase in exits of insiders one half of the story
Price-agnostic buying by retail shareholders the other half of the story
Price-agnostic buying of retail investors continues; retail sentiment better
DIIs and retail investors have increased their stake in this exchange
MS India Strategy
Fundamentals are as strong as ever
Fundamentals Not in the Price
India is expectedly underperforming the ongoing global equity bull market
Medium to long-term story stacks up strongly in India’s favor to beat Emerging Market and Asian equities
India remains one of preferred plays
Domestic Cyclicals > Defensives and External-facing sectors
Overweight - Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials
Underweight - Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare
This is likely to be a stock pickers' market, in contrast to one driven by top-down or macro factors since the Covid pandemic
We are capitalization-agnostic
GOVT SOURCES SAY Interim Trade Deal Could Be Signed With US Within The Next Two Days - CNBCTV 18
Negotiations For Concluding An Interim Trade Deal B/w India & The US Are In Final Stages
Indian Officials Are Demanding Greater Access For Labour Intensive Industries
Cannot Open Agri & Dairy Sectors Completely; Ltd Access In Some Areas May Be Allowed
India Will Not Compromise On Interests Of Farmers
SONA BLW ; ICICI PRUDENTIAL BOUGHT ADDITIONAL 0.06 % STAKE ON 1 JULY VIA OPEN MARKET
SONA BLW ; ICICI PRUDENTIAL BOUGHT ADDITIONAL 0.06 % STAKE ON 1 JULY VIA OPEN MARKET
STAKE INCREASED TO 5.05 % FROM 4.99 % EARLIER
CHINA MANUFACTURING DATA
Caixin June Services PMI 50.6[Est. 50.9 Prev. 51.1]
Caixin June Composite PMI 51.3[Prev. 49.6]
*SERVICES PMI WEAKEST SINCE OCT 2024.
ASIAN MARKET SECURITIES ON BHARAT ELECTRONICS
Initiates 'Buy' Rating With Target Price At ₹550 (30% Upside)
Steady Execution Of Current Order Book To Drive Growth Momentum
Dominant Leader And Platform Integrator Across Defence Ecosystem
Direct Leverage To Increasing Defence Budget Alloc Defence Ecosystem
METALS: China’s services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, marking the slowest growth since September 2022.
New export orders saw the steepest drop since December 2022, reflecting weakening global demand.
Ongoing price cuts and reduced hiring signal pressure on industrial activity, dampening the metals outlook.
ALEMBIC PHARMA: The company has acquired US-based Utility Therapeutics to strengthen its urinary tract infection (UTI) portfolio.
The deal includes rights to USFDA-approved drug “Pivya” and another UTI candidate in development.
Structured at ~$12 million with profit-sharing, the move boosts Alembic’s US market strategy.
BHARAT FORGE, BALKRISHNA IND, RAMKRISHNA FORGINGS, MM FORGINGS: North America Class 8 truck orders fell 25% MoM and 36% YoY in June.
Orders declined to 8,900 units from 12,000 units in May.
The sharp drop signals weakening demand in the commercial vehicle segment.
Tata Group in talks to buy out other shareholders in Singapore-based resurgent power ventures - NDTV PROFIT
Tata Power working with adviser to Buy stakes held by ICICI Venture, ΚΙΑ, ΟΙΑ
ICICI Venture, KIA & OIA hold 74% in resurgent, seeking a valuation of about $2.1 Bn
Macquarie double downgrade IndusInd Bank
Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform; Cut TP to Rs 650 from Rs 1210
NUVAMA Says HUL Likely To Report 3% Volume Growth In Q1 V 2 % Previously
Prefer UBL Το USL In Alcobev Space, Like Bikaji & Nestle
Marico Volume Growth Seen Around 7%
Believe Paint Stocks Have Bottomed Out From A Long-term Stand Point
All Parameters Around Consumption Are Improving
Possible GST Rationalisation Could Further Aid Low Ticket Consumption
BHARAT FORGE : Kalyani Group Explores Development of 155mm/52-Caliber Tracked Self-Propelled Howitzer Based on ATAGS - IDRW
GMR Power
Vistra released 25 million GMR Power shares from encumbrance on June 30, 2025, reducing pledge to 11.19%
DIVIS LAB: Divis Labs to manufacture intermediates for Merck’s peptide drug Enlicitide.
The drug is projected to reach $3–5 billion in peak sales, with Divis’ opportunity estimated at over $90 million.
This supports long-term growth for Divis’ Custom Synthesis business.
BLUESTAR MD Says Q1 Was A Bad Quarter For RAC, Commercial AC Segment Performed Well
Q1 RAC Industry Should See Growth Of 25% YoY
GAIL ; PNGRB to move with Independent natural gas transport system operator likely soon, as per reports
Currently managed by GAIL and GSPL
Analysts Say
The impact is likely to be felt more keenly for GAIL
Gas marketing margins could compress owing to more competition and higher regulatory oversight
The move will be a negative for GAIL, with potential risks to business structure and earnings mix
BLUESTAR MD Says Stick To 10-15% Revenue Growth Guidance For FY26
V2RETAIL Management Says Seeing Demand Pressure In Rural Market Over Last 2 Years
Pick-Up In Rural Demand, Economic Growth Of Tier II & III Cities To Further Aid Performance
Do Not Pian To Premiumise Our Collection
HDB FINANCIAL UP 5 %
Ionic Wealth Chartbook : Decoding FY25 Earnings
Very interesting charts and data insights
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ionic-wealth_decoding-earnings-trendsionic-wealth-chartbook-activity-7346064303688450048-dPOz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAACQE6cABfIpO4XwiH2BFl3ArbnAd2Yb68So
Linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ionic-wealth_decoding-earnings-trendsionic-wealth-chartbook-activity-7346064303688450048-dPOz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAACQE6cABfIpO4XwiH2BFl3ArbnAd2Yb68So)
V2RETAIL Management Says May increase Store Opening Guidance
Aim To increase Profit By Focusing On Sales/Sq Ft - NDTV PROFIT
BLUE CLOUD: Co. launches AI-powered 'BluHealth' platform targeting clinical decision support and remote diagnostics.
Platform eyes $6 million revenue opportunity with focus on underserved global regions.
Supports HIPAA/GDPR compliance and includes next-gen health tech for scalable deployment.
GARMENT MANTRA: Subsidiary Hylex Fashion secures ₹10.13 Cr export order from Dubai-based AL Rahmat Textiles.
The deal involves dress materials and fabrics to be delivered by March 2026.
Marks Garment Mantra’s strategic expansion into the Middle East market.
GARMENT MANTRA: Subsidiary Hylex Fashion secures ₹10.13 Cr export order from Dubai-based AL Rahmat Textiles.
The deal involves dress materials and fabrics to be delivered by March 2026.
Marks Garment Mantra’s strategic expansion into the Middle East market.
KARNATAKA BANK Management Says Have Recommended Interim MD To RBI & Waiting For An Approval
RBI Approval On MD Recos Should Come In Before July 15 - CNBCTV18
INDIA, MOST EXPENSIVE MARKET ; CLSA
CLSA Viksa Jain Says With a 2-year EPS CAGR of 11%, Nifty's earnings growth is now mediocre but India has again become the most expensive market in the world on PE and at a very rich premium versus EMs, Asia ex-Japan and China.
Nifty's valuation vs bonds is below the danger mark and investor sentiment still in the neutral zone per our proprietary India Bull-Bear Index and this may be the silver lining for the bulls.
We add Bajaj Auto to Bull-Bear Index and this may be the silver lining for the bulls.
We add Bajaj Auto to our portfolio and remove Britannia.
CLSA Says A combination of extended valuations and risk of earning downgrades makes us cautious on near-term returns.
We prefer defensives downgrades makes us cautious on near-term returns.
We prefer defensives alongwith autos, energy, realty and banks
DEFENCE STOCKS: India and US to sign a 10-year Defence Framework Agreement in upcoming bilateral talks.
Focus on joint R&D, co-production, and tech transfer to strengthen defence ties.
Companies like BEL, HAL, Bharat Dynamics, and MTAR may see improved visibility and collaboration prospects.

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