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Market Highlights

Get the latest Indian stock / share market highlights, BSE/NSE stock news, business research reports & details - updated daily by Money Times.

February 25, 2025

  • Big Money Moves! How are FIIs positioning themselves?
  • Check the latest FII activity tracker to understand market sentiment.
  • https://x.com/_sbisecurities/status/1894029992151126073?s=46&t=tAv0kfCQeNv0krS0GhVFNQ
  • ”You won’t win it you are in the wrong race. And the worst part, they will make you believe you are a failure not able to win the race.”
  • FX Hub:
  • *Snapshot:
  • Market participants worry that potential German coalition government formation will unlikely uplift the economy putting some pressure on Euro. DXY seen bouncing back from 106.20 levels. USDINR pair now finding base around 86.55 levels while open to test 86.95 levels again.
  • Market Brief:
  • - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January came in at -0.03, a small loss compared to the previous 0.15 reading.
  • - The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence is expected to drop from 104.1 to 103 in February.
  • - The CME FedWatch tool shows a 41.2% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in June against a bigger 46.2% for a 25 bps rate cut.
  • - Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz is set to become the German Chancellor after getting majority votes but is expected to face a slew of difficulties, including complicated negotiations to form a coalition government. The most likely scenario seems to be a coalition between the CDU and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).
  • - German IFO data for February has majorly come in weaker than expected. The IFO Business Climate, which measures current conditions and business expectations, came in at 85.2, as in January, lower than estimates of 85.8. On the contrary, IFO Expectations - which gauges current conditions and business expectations for the next six months - improved to 85.4 from estimates of 85.2 and the former reading of 84.3.
  • - A current G7 meeting is close to failing to agree a joint statement that would mark the three year historic event since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, due to disagreements between the US and its European allies.The US opposed to clauses that condemned Moscow and a call for more energy sanctions, and has threatened to pull support for a statement altogether, although discussions are ongoing.
  • *Major events (IST):
  • - 8:30pm: CB Consumer Confidence
  • *Commodities/Debt:
  • - DXY: 106.75, Brent Oil: $74.96, Gold: $2948, 10Y Gsec: 6.70, 10Y UST: 4.39
  • *Technicals (Support and Resistance):
  • a. EUR/USD: 1.0420-1.0520
  • b. GBP/USD: 1.2560-1.2670
  • c. USD/JPY: 148.60-152.80
  • You can follow me on below platforms for my FX views:
  • Twitter:
  • https://x.com/SodhaniKunal?t=yXRnSYiMa66UknthvHPcFg&s=09
  • Instagram Page:
  • https://instagram.com/kunal_sodhani?igshid=MWZjMTM2ODFkZg==
  • LinkedIn Page:
  • https://www.linkedin.com/in/kunalsodhani1?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app
  • Thanks & Regards,
  • Kunal Sodhani (Beast)
  • (Personal view)
  • Navigating the Opening Bell with Sbi Securities: 6 Key Technical and Derivative Insights
  • Can Buyers Step In, or Will Nifty Extend Its Decline?
  • 1. Global Market:
  • On Monday, the #Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed sharply lower but the #Dow posted a modest gain. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 slipped below their 50-day EMA level.
  • Going ahead, for S&P 500 the zone of 5960-5940 will act as immediate support. While, on the upside, the zone of 6040-6060 will act as a crucial hurdle.
  • The #BrentOil has been consolidating in a narrow range since the last couple of trading sessions. Going ahead, the zone of $74-73.80 will act as immediate support. While, on the upside, the zone of $76.70-77 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index.
  • Since the last three trading sessions, the U.S. Dollar Index (#DXY) oscillating near its 100-day EMA level. Going ahead, the zone of 106.20-106 will act as immediate support for the index.
  • 2. Nifty View:
  • On Monday, the benchmark Nifty index opened with a significant gap-down, driven by weak global cues that weighed on investor sentiment. Following the initial decline, the index remained confined to a narrow trading range of approximately 150 points, reflecting cautious market participation.
  • The primary drag on the index came from heavyweight sectors, particularly IT and Banking, which witnessed notable selling pressure and contributed significantly to the overall decline.
  • From a technical standpoint, Nifty is currently trading 2.30% below its 20-day EMA, indicating sustained weakness in the short-term trend. Additionally, the daily RSI has entered bearish territory and continues to trend downward, suggesting persistent selling momentum and a lack of buying interest at current levels.
  • Going ahead, for Nifty, the zone of 22430-22400 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the level of 22400, then the next crucial support is placed at the 22260 level.
  • While, on the upside, the resistance shifted lower in the zone of 22640-22670 level.
  • On the #derivatives front, February #futures dipped by 0.92 percent, while the combined #OpenInterest for the current, next, and far series surged by 4.46 percent, which indicates a short build up.
  • Among the constituents of the #Nifty index, 7 stocks have witnessed a long build-up, and 4 stocks have witnessed a short covering rally. While, 26 stocks have witnessed a short build-up, and 13 stocks have witnessed a long unwinding.
  • The 22600 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 22700 strike. On the put side, 22500 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 22400 strike.
  • For the February monthly series, OI PCR is at 0.62.
  • Bank Nifty opened with a gap down but rebounded nearly 370 points from the day's low. However, it closed at 48651, down 0.67%. Going forward, the 48300-48250 zone will serve as immediate support, while the 48950-49000 zone remains a key resistance level.
  • 3. Sensex View:
  • The benchmark index #Sensex ended below the 74500 level with a loss of 1.14 percent. On a daily scale, it has formed a sizeable bearish candle.
  • Going ahead, the zone of 74700-74800 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. While on the downside, the zone of 74000-73900 will act as immediate support for the index.
  • On the #derivative front, weekly #futures dipped by 1 percent, and the #OpenInterest of the current series has also dipped by nearly 2 percent.
  • The 74700 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 75000 strike. On the put side, 74000 has a substantial open interest, followed by a 73500 strike.
  • For the weekly series, OI PCR is at 0.60.
  • 4. Key Market Indicators:
  • On Monday, the volatility index, India VIX, ended on a flat note. Currently, it is trading below its short and long-term moving averages. Going ahead, the zone of 15.60-16 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index.
  • The #Advance/Decline ratio largely tilted in favour of decliners.
  • 5. Key Sectors;
  • Technically, Nifty FMCG, IT, Pharma, Automobile and Media space are likely to underperform the frontline indices.
  • 6. FII/DII Data:
  • #FIIs sold to the tune of 6286.7 cr. while #DIIs bought to the tune of 5185.65 cr.
  • FIIs' Long-short ratio for index futures is at 15.33 as on a net basis, they sold 7999 index futures.
  • On the stock #futures front, FIIs have bought to the tune of 26054 contracts, while on the #Options Front, FIIs sold 22747 call contracts and bought 2922 Put Option contracts.
  • Fund Houses Recommendations
  • GS on Indigo: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 5050/Sh (Positive)
  • MOSL on Union Bank: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 135/Sh (Positive)
  • MOSL on APL Apollo: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1830/Sh (Positive)
  • Bernstein on HDFC Bank: Maintain Outperform on Bank, target price at Rs 2300/Sh (Positive)
  • Bernstein on Zomato: Maintain Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 310/Sh (Positive)
  • Jefferies on Shriram Fin: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 710/Sh (Positive)
  • Jefferies on KFin Tech: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1310/Sh (Positive)
  • GS on Trent: Zudio stores ramping up faster, strategic expansion aims for higher customer wallet share, target price at Rs 8120/Sh (Positive)
  • JP Morgan on Defense: Recent corrections makes valuations reasonable. Top picks- HAL and BEL (Positive)
  • CLSA on India Strategy: Government of India actions provide hope of recovery in activity.
  • Consensus EPS cut trends prevails-likely to bottom out in H1FY26. Top picks- Adani Ports, Bajaj Auto, Marico and Shriram Finance (Positive)
  • MS on FMCG sector: Q3 demand trends improved sequentially yet overall remaining subdued, volumes were weak while value growth improved owing to price hikes (Neutral)
  • Jefferies on e-Commerce: DMart Ready leads in pricing, Zepto Super Saver close competitor, Flipkart Minutes aggressive (Neutral)
  • GS on Bharti Airtel: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1780/Sh (Neutral)
  • GS on Indus Tower: Maintain Sell on Company, target price at Rs 330/Sh (Neutral)
  • UBS on PFC: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 670/Sh (Neutral)
  • UBS on REC: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 600/Sh (Neutral)
  • MS on SBI Cards: Maintain Equal weight on Company, target price at Rs 685/Sh (Neutral)
  • Bernstein on ICICI Bank: Maintain Market perform on Bank, target price at Rs 1440/Sh (Neutral)
  • JP Morgan on SBI Cards: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 395/Sh (Neutral)
  • *Key Takeaways from Warren Buffett’s 2025 Annual Letter to Shareholders*
  • Warren Buffett’s 2025 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders provides insights into the company’s investment philosophy, capital allocation, and forward-looking strategies. The letter highlights key themes such as the firm’s approach to cash reserves, market outlook, succession planning, and investment decisions, including reductions in certain blue-chip holdings like Apple and major financial institutions.
  • ### *Market Outlook and Investment Strategy*
  • - Buffett remains cautious about high market valuations, which has influenced Berkshire’s reluctance to deploy capital aggressively.
  • - Despite a significant cash reserve of $334.2 billion, Buffett has opted for selective investments rather than large acquisitions.
  • - The company continues to seek high-quality, long-term opportunities but remains patient in waiting for attractive valuations.
  • ### *Cash Reserves and Future Investments*
  • - Berkshire Hathaway's record cash reserves result from Buffett’s disciplined approach to capital deployment.
  • - High market valuations and a lack of compelling investment opportunities have led to a more defensive cash position.
  • - Buffett has historically favored keeping cash on hand to capitalize on market downturns or distressed asset sales.
  • ### *Reduction in Apple and Other Blue-Chip Holdings*
  • - Berkshire reduced its stake in Apple in 2024 while still maintaining Apple as its largest equity holding (~300 million shares).
  • - The decision to sell part of the Apple stake was driven by profit realization and strategic portfolio rebalancing.
  • - Sales of bank stocks like Bank of America and Citigroup indicate a shift away from the financial sector, possibly due to concerns over economic trends and interest rate policies.
  • ### *Selective Investments and Strategic Shifts*
  • - Buffett has redirected some capital into consumer-focused investments, such as increasing the stake in Constellation Brands, the maker of Modelo and Corona beers.
  • - This move aligns with Berkshire’s historical preference for durable businesses with strong brand loyalty.
  • ### *Ethics, Succession Planning, and Governance*
  • - Buffett continues to emphasize the importance of ethical business practices and long-term shareholder value creation.
  • - The letter reinforces confidence in Berkshire’s leadership transition plan, with Greg Abel set to lead the company in the future.
  • - The firm remains committed to a conservative financial strategy, prioritizing stability and sustainable growth.
  • ### *How Long Should Investors Stay in Cash?*
  • - Given Buffett’s cautious stance, long-term investors should focus on quality businesses with strong fundamentals rather than chasing momentum stocks.
  • - Key indicators to watch include valuation metrics (P/E ratios), broader market corrections, interest rate policies, and macroeconomic shifts.
  • - Buffett’s strategy suggests that patient capital deployment will outperform rushed investments in overvalued markets.
  • ### *Conclusion*
  • Warren Buffett’s 2025 letter reflects his enduring investment philosophy—focus on fundamentals, maintain patience, and deploy capital selectively. While Berkshire has trimmed positions in blue-chip stocks, it remains well-positioned to seize future opportunities. Investors looking to navigate the current market environment should consider a similar approach, balancing caution with readiness to invest when market conditions become more favorable.
Panchkarma