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February 24, 2025
- HEALTHCARE GLOBAL: The transaction is expected to close by the third quarter of 2025
- Dr. BS Ajaikumar, Founder of HCG, will take on the role of Non Executive Chairman and be focused on driving clinical, academic and research and development excellence.
- This deal adds to KKR’s portfolio, which includes Baby Memorial Hospital, Healthium, Infinx, Max Healthcare, JB Pharma, and Gland Pharma
- Elara on Insurance
- Potential regulations to lead to more downside
- Scenario 1 - capping of overall bancassurance share to be less burdensome
- SBILIFE is the most exposed, leading to a sharp decline in APE_(-15% YoY dip in banca); Return on Embedded Value (ROEV could drop by ~5-6%) with a total return CAGR of ~9% .
- HDFCLIFE could deliver_a ~12% CAGR while MAXF offers a 16% CAGR, due to a low-entry multiple, higher ROEV and lower overall share of bancassurance in 9MFY25.
- ELARA ON INSURANCE
- Scenario 2: Capping of parent bank share could see significant impact: HDFCLIFE, MAXF and SBILIFE could face more disruption given the higher share of parent contribution while IPRU could face the lowest impact on APE.
- In such a scenario, PEV could derate significantly further.
- Hence, we believe the sector will deliver at a CAGR of 8-9%%, in the long term in such a scenario.
- HEALTHCARE GLOBAL; KKR Acquires Controlling Stake in Indian Healthcare Provider Healthcare Global Enterprises for $400 Million ( ₹ 3465 Cr Aprx )
- KKR will acquire up to 54% of HCG from CVC Asia V at ₹445/share and launch an open offer under SEBI rules.
- Post-deal, KKR's stake may rise to 54-77%.
- KKR to be the largest and controlling shareholder
- BROKERAGES ON M&M
- Jefferies : 53% upside, tgt 4075
- Elara : Revise Rating to buy, tgt 3654
- Nomura: Prefer M&M as Top Pick
- ■ Some common thesis:
- Recent fall a buying opportunity, MM stock is down 14% in last 10 days (vs Nifty-50 -1%)
- Stock is trading at ~11,9x FY27E EVI EBITDA (ex of subsidiary)-cheaper than Maruti Suzuki's 12.5x
- Tesla ikely to expand BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles) market than impacting M&M BEV
- Tesla is more likely to enter the
- country with the pricier Model Y and not even the Model 3
- Unlikely that Tesla will launch a
- vehicle at INR2.1mn, more likely to launch at INR 5-12 mm
- Suppliers such as Sona Comstar, Sansera, Motherson twins should be the key beneficiaries of this
- COLGATE ANALYST MEET HIGHLIGHTS
- India presents a major growth opportunity for CL, driven by favorable demographics, innovation, and retail strategy.
- Management aims to boost volumes in urban and rural markets while driving premiumization.
- Despite rising competition amid slowing urban demand, targeted media spending supports further penetration.
- Nomura on Pharma
- A 10% hit on sales of generics imported into the US should imply an EBITDA impact of 4-15% with the most impact for Zydus, Lupin & Dr Reddy’s & relatively lesser impact on Sun & Cipla
- Retain Buy on Zydus, Lupin, Dr Reddy’s and Cipla.
- US tariff concerns; pharma index down 12.9%, underperforming the broader market (Nifty down 4%)
- For large generic cos in our coverage, est. that generic product imports into US should account of $700-1100m in revenue
- FTSE semi annual review
- The changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, 21 March 2025 (i.e. on Monday, 24 March 2025)
- Changes in FTSE Global Equity Index series
- Added to Large Cap: Bajaj Hiusing Finance, Indusind Bank, Premier Energies.
- 36 stocks added to Small cap, 63 stocks added to Microcap , several shifts from Mid to Small, Smal to Mid, Mid to large etc
- Brightcom Group: Deleated from Small cap
- Stocks to be included in FTSE All world Index ( This is most important)
- 360 ONE WAM, Ajanta Pharma, Apar Industries, Bajaj Housing Finance, Blue Star-B1, BSE, Central Depository Services (India), Crisil, Fertilisers and Chemicals Travancore, Fortis Healthcare, IndusInd Bank, Kaynes Technology India, National Aluminium, and Premier Energies.
- Exclusion from FTSE All world Index : Rajesh Exports
- Inclusion in FTSE ALL cap Index
- Total 40 inclusion : Aadhar Housing, Indusind Bank Raymond Lifestyle
- Exclusion: Brightcom Group, Nexus select trust
- FTSE Total Cap Index: Total 92 Inclusions and 32 exclusions
- ACTION FOR DAY
- Delhi Assembly session begins (IGL, WATER INFRA, ALCOHOL STOCKS IN FOCUS)
- Eurozone: CPI
- Lock-in period ends for-NTPC Green Energy (2%)/ Interarch Building Products (40%)
- Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine reaches the three-year mark.
- INDIA
- India EMA says ‘notable developments’ in China relations since Nov.
- India prepared to meet peak power demand this year: Chief Prasad
- Former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das appointed as Principal Secretary to Prime Minister Modi
- SAVDHAN RAHEIN!
- Fusion Finance-Credit rating downgrade by ICRA on NCDs, Subordinated Bonds and NCD programme
- EASYTRIP PLANNERS-Promoter Nishant Pitti created pledge of 10lk shares (2.82% stake)
- GS on M&M
- Buy, TP Rs 3800
- Potential Tesla entry driving 15% disc in M&M Auto biz vs peer
- Over past 10 yrs, M&M has returned a median of +23% & +36% in 12- & 24-month periods following episodes of -15% stock price corrections from peak (5 instances)
- ADANI GREEN : Andhra Govt approves including SECI's Adani Green-backed 4 GW solar energy buy plan - INFORMIST
- ANDHRA GOVT APPROVES INCLUDING SECI'S 4.19B UNITS IN FY26 FROM SECI SOLAR POWER PROJECT - ET NOW
- J P Morgan on Cyient
- OW, TP Rs 1750
- Appreciate investor feedback of not jumping into stock right now
- Near-term catalysts:
- 4Q where it needs to deliver flat to +ve CC QQ rev growth & flattish margins in line with guidance
- New CEO’s comments on any strategy overhaul & MT targets
- Stock is down 8% in last 2 days (vs. Nifty IT down 1% ) despite a positive new external CEO announcement
- Believe stock reaction is overdone as CYL should be given credit for appointing a new CEO ahead of target time line (Mar’25
- FEDERAL BANK ANALYST MEET
- Aspires to be within top 5 private banks by FY28 (7th currently) : Project Breakthrough
- ROA growth driven by better cost of funds, fees, and yields
- No near-term guidance; credit cost risks remain
- 400+ sales-focused branches in key areas
- Open to inorganic expansion
- EPS growth from quick wins in FY25-27E
- IT STOCKS; IT Salary hikes are cautious, with 4%–8.5% increments, lower than previous years due to global challenges, reduced spending, and shifting priorities, says Krishna Vij, VP, TeamLease Digital - BL
- COAL INDIA: Coal India Limited (CIL) and M/s EDF India Private Limited {a wholly owned subsidiary of Électricité de France SA (EDF) signed a Non-Binding Shareholders Agreement to form a joint venture for PSP and renewable energy projects in India and neighboring countries.
- CITI ON INTERGLOBE AVIATION
- Maintain Buy, TP 5200 (FROM 5100)
- Open a 90-Day positive Catalyst Watch
- Pick-up in overall air traffic demand and IndiGo’s strong market share
- Significant improvement in PLFs (capacity utilization) in 4QFY25, a seasonally weak quarter.
- A part of this increase in overall demand could also be attributed to increased traffic to major airports in Uttar Pradesh to cater to Maha Kumbh
- Higher demand could manifest itself in better yields in 4QFY25.
- CLSA INDIA STRATEGY
- Better-than-expected 3Q, but notable EPS cuts remain a concern
- Results of 30% of stocks exceeded our estimates, but a bigger 46% fell short.
- After nine quarters of contraction, PBT growth for urban plays turned positive, and their performance was visibly better than rural plays.
- Despite not-so-bad 3Q results, the Nifty’s FY26/27 consensus EPS was cut by 3% and by 2% for CLSA.
- CLSA analysts upgraded earnings for 18% of stocks for FY26, but downgrades were seen for a bigger 63%.
- Key FY26CL earnings changes:
- Top upgrades-DLF, Muthoot Finance, ONGC
- Top downgrades-ZomatoM PVR Inox,Bandhan Bank
- Rating upgrades:
- Underperform to Hold: Voltas, Tata Steel, Indian Oil, BPCL, Oil India
- Hold to Outperform: Escorts Kubota, Dalmia Bharat, ACC, Astral, Kaynes, Chola Inv & Fin, Muthoot Finance, Aurobindo Pharma, Dr. Lal Pathlabs, Godrej Properties, TCS, Wipro
- Underperform to Outperform: Bajaj Auto
- Rating downgrades-Gujarat Petronet, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratory
- CLSA ON IT
- Demand drivers improving; GenAI to be revenue driver going forward
- We see multiple positive signals for India’s IT sector going into FY26
- BFSI is on a definite growth trajectory with a discretionary demand revival
- There have been multiple cost-focused deal wins in telecom despite weak sectoral indicators
- There is improving guidance from product-focused players such as EPAM & Globant
- Along with the commoditisation of LLMs improving the prospects of IT players to develop custom AI agents.
- The pricing environment may face pressure due to increased competition in cost takeout deals.
- We reiterate our optimistic stance on Indian IT
- CITI ON FEDERAL BANK
- Maintain Buy, TP 242
- New CEO KVS Manian unveiled the strategy of embarking on ‘Breakthrough Phase’
- To modernize and inch closer to top private banks with a universal bank vision and national franchise
- Enhancing profitability/RoA while sustaining growth, instilling P&L culture in business heads, modernized/phasized state-specific expansion beyond Kerala
- Emphasized focus (in order of preference) on rationalizing CoDs (through CA), reshaping product mix to optimize yields and enhance fees.
- Targeted segments – mass affluent/MSME/mid-corporate/NR/next gen.
- Valuations at 1.1x FY27E book appear reasonable
- ZYDUS LIFE
- Receives final approval from USFDA for Ibuprofen and Famotidine Tablets
- PI Industries
- Co and C-CAMP Announce Strategic Partnership to Drive Innovation in Biocontrol Technologies
- Oil India
- To form a JV with Assam Power Generation Corporation
- SRF
- Completes commissioning of refrigerant gas expansion in Dahej
- Anand Rathi Wealth:
- Bonus date for the purpose of 1:1 bonus issue is March 5
- Swiggy
- To invest in equity shares of WOS Scootsy Logistics Private Limited up to an amount not exceeding `1,000 cr
- Syngene
- Received 5 form 483 observations from USFDA for Bengaluru facility