Market Highlights

---

Get the latest Indian stock / share market highlights, BSE/NSE stock news, business research reports & details - updated daily by Money Times.

---

February 19, 2025

• Flows in Cash Market on 18th February 2025
• FII net bought ₹4787 cr
• DII net bought ₹3072 cr
• Don’t get too excited as Bharti Airtel block is skewing the FII numbers
• @CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live
• #StockMarket #Nifty
• Gensol Engineering - Recent promoter stake sale might trigger a possible case of SEBI violation
• https://x.com/BeatTheStreet10/status/1891852792589058230
• MS On QSR
• With Sequential Improvement In Growth Underway, Focus This Quarter Was Around Innovation & Value Offerings
• Managements Expect Margin To Remain In The Guided Range Until Growth Rebound
• Pizza Category SSSG Turned Positive, While That For Burger/Chicken Category Recovered Sequentially
• Jubilant's Growth Trends Were Ahead Of Peers
• With Delivery Growth Leading Charge & Share Of Revenues Rising To Highest Level Ever At 71.4%
• Inflationary Headwinds & Competitive Landscape Kept Margins In Check But Within The Guidance Range
• GS on QSR Players
• Indian-QSR-The Tide Is Turning
• QSR players now gaining market share within the food delivery market
• Growth gap between QSR sales and aggregators GOV (Gross order value) is narrowing)
• Dine in channel seems to be recovering, a positive for QSR players
• Improved affordability/value initiatives to continue to drive SSSG recovery
• Nuvama on FY26 Outlook on Consumption
• FY26 outlook – Defensives are back
• Urban slowdown shall persist till Q1FY26, and urban demand shall start reviving Q2FY26 onwards.
• We expect this revival on the back of tax cuts in the union budget and potential rate cuts by the RBI (one cut already taken).
• Gradual recovery in rural demand to continue due to freebies and good crop, among others.
• Some parts of food inflation have started easing off, which would lead to overall revival.
• Margins of companies more vulnerable to inflation in key raw materials—palm oil, coffee, tea, etc—such as Godrej Consumer, Tata Consumer and Bikaji to remain under pressure till at least Q1FY26.
• Price hikes were taken in Q4CY24 with further rounds of hikes expected in H1CY25.
• In these inflationary times, we expect larger players to continue to gain market shares from regional/start-ups.
• AlcoBev companies to see strong growth in Andhra and Telangana (with respective disputes getting resolved).
• Cola wars to intensify with Campa winning IPL sponsorships and launching new energy drinks.
• To summarise, Defensives are back in flavour. We expect CY25 to be better after a muted CY24.
• CLSA on Consumer
• Q3 Review
• Slight Growth Pickup, And Giants Growing Slower Than Others
• Sequential Uptick In Staples On A Weaker Base But Discretionary Stable
• Incremental Quick Commerce And Food Delivery GOVs Are On The Up
• Top long ideas are ZOMATO, Swiggy, VBL, TTAN, ITC & DMART
• Top Underperform ideas are JUBI, MRCO, APNT, & HUVR
• Upgrade GCPL to HOLD, TP Rs 1015
• Colgate – Hold, TP cut to Rs 2559
• CLSA On Tata Motors
• Upgrade To High Conviction Outperform, Target Unchanged At Rs930/sh
• Adverse Near-term Outlook Giving Scope To Enter At Favourable Valuation
• Stk has corrected 40% in past six months on a/c of weak demand outlook
• In Addition, Risk Of Import Tariffs Getting Implemented In US From EU
• Tariffs Concerns On JLR Retails In US (25% Of Retails) Also Added To Correction
• Believe JLR Is Presently Trading Way Below Its Normative Multiple Of 2.5x
• At Current Price, Implied/Share Value Of JLR Is Rs200/sh Vs Our Target Of Rs450/sh In SOTP
• Enough Cushion Against Impact Of US Tariff Hike & Weaker Than Expected Demand/Margin
• HSBC On Maruti
• Buy Call, Target Price Rs14,000
• E-Vitara specs vs price proposition seems favourable when compared to European and even Chinese models
• Import duty on Chinese CBU and other auto parts will provide some support to relative pricing for Suzuki EVs
• MSIL EV launch targets affordable segment in European markets
• e Vitara’s Lower TCO Than Competition Can Help Gain Traction In Targeted Markets
• Macquarie on Indian Auto
• India’s 2W exports is geographically well diversified – LATAM and Africa accounted for 70% of exports by volume in FY24.
• Medium-term export potential with growing demand and market share gains in LATAM and Africa, along with E2W export potential.
• TVS best positioned vs peers to leverage growth; top pick in 2W space
• TVS Motors-Maintain Outperform TP 2904
• Jefferies on Auto
• India's two-wheeler registration growth has moderated from 12% in Apr-Aug to 9% in Sep-Dec and 4-5% in Jan/H1-Feb
• TVS is outperforming with double-digit growth and is gaining market share
• Eicher lagged in Apr-Aug but has outperformed with 14% growth in Sep-Jan
• Hero Moto and Bajaj Auto conversely, are lagging in domestic 2W growth
• EV penetration in 2Ws remains in the 4-7% range, with Ola facing volume and margin pressures
• TVS and Eicher are preferred 2W Buys
• Macquarie On Pharma/CDMO
• Sector benefiting from secular growth as well as regulatory tailwinds
• Initiate O-P on Divi's, Suven Pharma, Bluejet Healthcare, & Syngen
• Macquarie on Suven Pharma
• Initiate Outperform with TP of Rs 1500
• Suven Pharma is set to benefit from high-growth cutting-edge CDMO segments and its proven track record to drive traditional business
• Has a solid antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) CDMO platform and is building capabilities in the Oligonucleotide segment
• See its earnings set to grow sixfold by FY30E off a FY24 base
• Macquarie BlueJet
• Initiate Outperform with TP of Rs 1000
• Moving up value chain in contrast media to capture better economics
• Profitability and return ratios to improve
• Expect Pharma CDMO business to grow significantly with the ramp-up of existing molecules and the addition of new molecules
• Macquarie on Divis Lab
• Initiate Outperform with TP of Rs 7400
• Don't miss the forest for the trees; Largest CDMO firm in India
• Works with majority of top-20 global innovator-pharma companies on small molecule products
• Custom synthesis business is set for significant growth
• Poised to triple its top-line and quadruple bottom-line by FY30
• Macquarie on Syngene
• Initiate Outperform with TP of Rs 835
• Gearing up for next growth phase
• In a unique position to benefit from biotech funding recovery, supply chain de-risking, and higher pharma outsourcing
• Expect its medium-term earnings to materially improve
• Its increasing capabilities are matched by higher capacity expansion/utilisation
• Nuvama On ABB
• Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs6,650 From Rs8,900/sh
• Stellar Execution/Margins; OI A Concern
• Despite Near-Term OI Sluggishness & Margin Potentially At Peak Stay Upbeat On Co’s Long-Term Growth
• Growth To Be Led By Data Centres, Railways & Core Industrial Capex
• Cutting CY25/26 EPS By 4%/(8%) & Target P/E To 65x
• UBS on ABB
• Neutral Call, Target Rs8,450/sh
• Contrary To Peers CG Power/Siemens, ABB Posted Much Lower New Orders
• Even Adjusted For The Base Is Fairly Low Reflecting A Lack Of Large Orders.
• While Most Segments Delivered Strong Margins
• Electrification Division Was A Clear Stand Out, Both On Revenue Growth/Margins.
• Sequential Drop In Orders For Three Quarters In A Row Was A Clear Negative Surprise
• Raises Concerns On CY25/26 Top-Line Growth Assumptions
• Co Expects The High Growth Emerging Segments To Do Well
• Co Sees The Current Low Order Run Rate As Transitory
• Jefferies On ABB
• Buy Call, Target Cut To Rs7,130/sh From Rs9,050/sh
• Q4CY24 EBITDA Was 13% Above Expectations Led By 354 bps YoY Gross Margin Expansion
• Pricing Power & Revenue Mix Supported Margins
• However, CY24 Order Flow Growth Was Just 6% YoY Given Q4 14% YoY Decline
• Lower CY24-26 Rev CAGR To 22% From 25%
• Lower Gross Margins YoY Which Is Leading To A 15%+Cut In Est
• Current Price Factors Slowdown
• Nomura On ABB
• Downgrade To Reduce, Target Rs4,970/sh
• 24% Miss On Order Inflow; Likely Moderation Of Ordering Momentum In Near Term
• Strong Operational Performance In Q4CY24
• EPS Cut For CY25/CY26 By 7%/15% On Moderation Of Ordering & Margin Levers
• CITI on Specialty Chemicals
• Implication of possible reciprocal tariffs imposed by US
• Organic and misc.chemical products-India has tariff of 10% vs US avg tariff at 3%
• Other key exports to US-EU have average tariffs of 5-6%
• Assuming 7% tariff on exports to US
• EBIDTA impact for PI Industries/Navine Fluorine/SRF at 12%/5%/4%
• Actual impact may be less due to offsets from tariffs on other exporters into US and possible pass through via higher domestic prices in US
• Jefferies on IT Sector
• INR's 1-3% Depreciation Vs USD/EUR/GBP Should Favour IT Firms
• LTIM, Wipro, Sagility & Coforge Are Best Placed, Given Higher Exposure To USD/ EUR/GBP
• Raise Est By 2-5% To Factor In Recent Forex moves
• Lower Target PE By Up To 15% To Reflect Higher US
• Yields & Recent PE Derating In Nifty
• Keep Constructive Stance & Prefer Infosys/LTIM/TCS Among Large Caps & Coforge/Sagility/Mphasis Among Mid-Caps
• CLSA on IT Sector
• Capgemini CY25 revenue guidance, seems more of company specific issues
• It is facing incremental headwinds from higher exposure to France, the EU and the UK besides more exposure to manufacturing than its global and Indian IT peers
• Reiterate optimistic stance on the Indian IT sector due to improved discretionary demand across the US and the BFSI and retail sectors
• GS on Cable & Wire
• Growth drivers intact, risk reward better
• Recent correction offers an opportunity for entry in the C&W sector
• With over ~50% of revenue accruing from the domestic end-mkt where fundamentals remain strong (Power, Infrastructure and Real estate construction)
• Exports provide an opportunity with global T&D spends continuing to be healthy
• Indian companies gaining traction on a low base.
• Growth and the return profile along with the visibility of that continuing in the medium term will support premium valuations
• Polycab-Maintain Buy, TP 6510
• KEI Industries-Maintain Neutral, TP 3780
• Jefferies on Macrotech
• Buy Call, Target Price Rs1,600
• Low Gearing & Expansion In New Geographies Ensure Sustainable 20% Growth and 20% RoE Trajectory
• Infra Development Around Palava Township Has A Long Runway
• Should Drive Rising Premiumisation & Rising Land Values Over Long Term
• Investec on Venus Pipes
• Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 1665
• Fastest growing player; Backward integration boost profitability
• Incremental expansion offers attractive RoCE profile in titanium tubes, hygienic tubes & fittings
• Expect EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 21% over FY24-27
• JPM on Hindalco
• OW. TP Rs 670
• Believe stock price could remain volatile in next few weeks as investors gauge direction of scrap spreads & LME aluminum prices
• While there are several unknowns, bull-bear case analysis suggests ltd. downside of 9% from current levels in bear case
• Management guided to improved 4Q profitability in US operations, however can’t rule out possibility of higher scrap prices & tariff uncertainty impacting
• a) vol growth
• b) driving some substitution towards PET (plastics)